Odds of societal collapse in US...

[CP87]

It's the Holidays, let's talk about something uplifting, like apocalypses!

I have been thinking a lot lately about how narrow our viewpoints can be, as we over-focus on the period within which we have lived (relatively stable and prosperous, from the US perspective), and it is hard for any of us to truly take in the broader sweep of history. We have a tendency to think progress marches ever forward, and things will only get better, not worse. We have also lived in an era when the US was THE global super-power (or at the very least, 1 of 2), and as an American it can be hard to imagine that coming to an end.

Our era of prosperity and stability is bound to come to an end at some point. How far into the future will that be? How will it go down?

So many culprits to consider, but just to throw out a few: collapse of social structure due to AI displacement of workers and massively accelerated wealth inequality, killer AI robots, growing societal divide fueled by social media, nuclear war, climate crises, pandemic, zombies, aliens, super-intelligent species of venomous ants...you name it.

 

[guffus]

I have a friend that has been convinced there is a distopian future coming for as long as I have known him. To the point where he almost seems to be rooting for society to collapse just so his prediction comes true.

I also find it bizarre that the ones that seem to be convinced that a collapse of society is coming, are the same people voting for the candidates that would cause such a collapse.

Me, on the other hand, I am a hopefull optimist. Confident in my fellow man to always do the right thing when it really matters. Hopelessly naive, I must admit.

 

[99topdawg]

My wife and I were just talking about this this morning after seeing some entitled dumbass talking about some stupid shit. We said, though, that every generation thinks like this about the previous generation. We just have to hope that these people grow up and figure it out. Mass/social media puts it out there more than other generations so the fringe stands out. Those that are off the fringe aren't interesting enough to show. Having said that, there's some people that really scare the shit out of me.

A bit more on topic, this AI shit scares me. It's pretty cool to mess around with but it's going to destroy a lot of lives. The things it can do and will be able to do as it further develops will put reality in doubt in so many areas. I'm worried about losing my retirement money through a scam. There are some really scary things that they can do. It makes me to where I don't trust anything because of what it can do. If my wife answered a spam call and had any kind of conversation at all with them, they've got her voice and they can call me asking for a bank number, etc. We have safe words to make sure the conversation is legit, but still. I'm not sure if I'm old enough to be that paranoid yet, but I am.

 

[PCHawk]

It's the Holidays, let's talk about something uplifting, like apocalypses!

I have been thinking a lot lately about how narrow our viewpoints can be, as we over-focus on the period within which we have lived (relatively stable and prosperous, from the US perspective), and it is hard for any of us to truly take in the broader sweep of history. We have a tendency to think progress marches ever forward, and things will only get better, not worse. We have also lived in an era when the US was THE global super-power (or at the very least, 1 of 2), and as an American it can be hard to imagine that coming to an end.

Our era of prosperity and stability is bound to come to an end at some point. How far into the future will that be? How will it go down?

So many culprits to consider, but just to throw out a few: collapse of social structure due to AI displacement of workers and massively accelerated wealth inequality, killer AI robots, growing societal divide fueled by social media, nuclear war, climate crises, pandemic, zombies, aliens, super-intelligent species of venomous ants...you name it.

No doubt the US won't be a super power forever. I'm guessing 100 more years tops. Could be 100 days.

 

[Westernhawk]

I'm worried about:

1. Climate change (and climate migration)... things can and will get weird in the next 25-50 years. People have been moving to Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California for decades. I think that will change a lot in the coming decades. On a global scale, this migration may lead to wars as people try to find habitable spaces with food, water, and livable space.

2. AI. I think this accelerates income equality and joblessness for those without excellent computer skills. This may hit residents of remote, rural areas even harder, I think.

3. Along with the rise in income inequality and the disappearing middle class (which we're starting to see already), we'll see democracies disappear, and oligarchies with very wealthy people controlling the media and the vote (while still calling their countries democracies). We already see it in the world, and the seeds that have been sown here are starting to sprout.

 

[eyekwah]

The issues coming with world depopulation will impact society in massive economic terms. Western Civilization has been the major driver of developments leading to increased life expectancy and lower birth rates. It is expected the world population will decline by 2 billion people before the turn of the next century. The declining birthrate in the US and increased life expectancy above what actuaries used in 1935 is the primary culprit. Generation X is supporting 4 generations of people. Their parents, their grandparents, and a few instances great grand parents. They also have to support the disabled among their generation with SSI.

East Asian civilization has had dramatic impact on the economics of Europe and North America in the last 15 years. U.S. pay rates for manufacturing jobs are far more than those in East Asia. Biden and Trump are using the threat of tariffs to protect the workers in some industries, particularly autos. Trying to keep wages commensurate with expenses will be difficult to do. Complicating the process is the huge national debt and the interest on it. Raising Taxes on the filthy rich or those doing more than modestly, can't offset the social program problems with costs. Cutting 2 trillion from the federal budget is more necessary than ever. The middle class can't afford to pay more in taxes nor the ones in the lower pay service jobs.

All these climate change models do not account for the decline in world population and less pollution that would result. The rise in income inequality has been a result of government borrowing and printing of paper to cover a lot of effort to combat "global warming". The Gates , the Steyers, etc have profited greatly from federal government efforts through borrowing.

I hope the DOGE can succeed. If I wanted to give advice. I would recommend creating a single Information Technology Unit at the federal level. Under the current system each department operates their information systems in a silo. I think their is a $500,000,000,000 in saving if done.