Odds of societal collapse in US...

[CP87]

It's the Holidays, let's talk about something uplifting, like apocalypses!

I have been thinking a lot lately about how narrow our viewpoints can be, as we over-focus on the period within which we have lived (relatively stable and prosperous, from the US perspective), and it is hard for any of us to truly take in the broader sweep of history. We have a tendency to think progress marches ever forward, and things will only get better, not worse. We have also lived in an era when the US was THE global super-power (or at the very least, 1 of 2), and as an American it can be hard to imagine that coming to an end.

Our era of prosperity and stability is bound to come to an end at some point. How far into the future will that be? How will it go down?

So many culprits to consider, but just to throw out a few: collapse of social structure due to AI displacement of workers and massively accelerated wealth inequality, killer AI robots, growing societal divide fueled by social media, nuclear war, climate crises, pandemic, zombies, aliens, super-intelligent species of venomous ants...you name it.

 

[guffus]

I have a friend that has been convinced there is a distopian future coming for as long as I have known him. To the point where he almost seems to be rooting for society to collapse just so his prediction comes true.

I also find it bizarre that the ones that seem to be convinced that a collapse of society is coming, are the same people voting for the candidates that would cause such a collapse.

Me, on the other hand, I am a hopefull optimist. Confident in my fellow man to always do the right thing when it really matters. Hopelessly naive, I must admit.

 

[99topdawg]

My wife and I were just talking about this this morning after seeing some entitled dumbass talking about some stupid shit. We said, though, that every generation thinks like this about the previous generation. We just have to hope that these people grow up and figure it out. Mass/social media puts it out there more than other generations so the fringe stands out. Those that are off the fringe aren't interesting enough to show. Having said that, there's some people that really scare the shit out of me.

A bit more on topic, this AI shit scares me. It's pretty cool to mess around with but it's going to destroy a lot of lives. The things it can do and will be able to do as it further develops will put reality in doubt in so many areas. I'm worried about losing my retirement money through a scam. There are some really scary things that they can do. It makes me to where I don't trust anything because of what it can do. If my wife answered a spam call and had any kind of conversation at all with them, they've got her voice and they can call me asking for a bank number, etc. We have safe words to make sure the conversation is legit, but still. I'm not sure if I'm old enough to be that paranoid yet, but I am.

 

[PCHawk]

It's the Holidays, let's talk about something uplifting, like apocalypses!

I have been thinking a lot lately about how narrow our viewpoints can be, as we over-focus on the period within which we have lived (relatively stable and prosperous, from the US perspective), and it is hard for any of us to truly take in the broader sweep of history. We have a tendency to think progress marches ever forward, and things will only get better, not worse. We have also lived in an era when the US was THE global super-power (or at the very least, 1 of 2), and as an American it can be hard to imagine that coming to an end.

Our era of prosperity and stability is bound to come to an end at some point. How far into the future will that be? How will it go down?

So many culprits to consider, but just to throw out a few: collapse of social structure due to AI displacement of workers and massively accelerated wealth inequality, killer AI robots, growing societal divide fueled by social media, nuclear war, climate crises, pandemic, zombies, aliens, super-intelligent species of venomous ants...you name it.

No doubt the US won't be a super power forever. I'm guessing 100 more years tops. Could be 100 days.

 

[Westernhawk]

I'm worried about:

1. Climate change (and climate migration)... things can and will get weird in the next 25-50 years. People have been moving to Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California for decades. I think that will change a lot in the coming decades. On a global scale, this migration may lead to wars as people try to find habitable spaces with food, water, and livable space.

2. AI. I think this accelerates income equality and joblessness for those without excellent computer skills. This may hit residents of remote, rural areas even harder, I think.

3. Along with the rise in income inequality and the disappearing middle class (which we're starting to see already), we'll see democracies disappear, and oligarchies with very wealthy people controlling the media and the vote (while still calling their countries democracies). We already see it in the world, and the seeds that have been sown here are starting to sprout.

 

[eyekwah]

The issues coming with world depopulation will impact society in massive economic terms. Western Civilization has been the major driver of developments leading to increased life expectancy and lower birth rates. It is expected the world population will decline by 2 billion people before the turn of the next century. The declining birthrate in the US and increased life expectancy above what actuaries used in 1935 is the primary culprit. Generation X is supporting 4 generations of people. Their parents, their grandparents, and a few instances great grand parents. They also have to support the disabled among their generation with SSI.

East Asian civilization has had dramatic impact on the economics of Europe and North America in the last 15 years. U.S. pay rates for manufacturing jobs are far more than those in East Asia. Biden and Trump are using the threat of tariffs to protect the workers in some industries, particularly autos. Trying to keep wages commensurate with expenses will be difficult to do. Complicating the process is the huge national debt and the interest on it. Raising Taxes on the filthy rich or those doing more than modestly, can't offset the social program problems with costs. Cutting 2 trillion from the federal budget is more necessary than ever. The middle class can't afford to pay more in taxes nor the ones in the lower pay service jobs.

All these climate change models do not account for the decline in world population and less pollution that would result. The rise in income inequality has been a result of government borrowing and printing of paper to cover a lot of effort to combat "global warming". The Gates , the Steyers, etc have profited greatly from federal government efforts through borrowing.

I hope the DOGE can succeed. If I wanted to give advice. I would recommend creating a single Information Technology Unit at the federal level. Under the current system each department operates their information systems in a silo. I think their is a $500,000,000,000 in saving if done.

 

[BigD]

No doubt the US won't be a super power forever. I'm guessing 100 more years tops. Could be 100 days.

You have no idea what just about happened just a few days ago with the bond markets. The real billionaires really put it to the Trumpster. That's why he had to drop his tariff bullshit. We lose are bond value we lose our entire economy and all hell breaks loose.

 

[Gibsonian]

Loss of due process and no longer honoring court decisions is a fast track to societal collapse

 

[CP87]

Text from the Declaration of Independence, listing the grievances against the tyranny of the monarchy (emphasis mine):

The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries. He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures. (keep an eye on Erik Prince in this space).

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world: For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions. (this last part is problematic, in retrospect)

 

[Hay Man]

Loss of due process and no longer honoring court decisions is a fast track to societal collapse

I wish someone would let us know what crimes get a person deported and what crimes get a person elected to be President

 

[Gibsonian]

I wish someone would let us know what crimes get a person deported and what crimes get a person elected to be President

That's an easy one. You can be leader of the most powerful nation in the world if you are guilty of:

1. Organizing and attacking your own government. I think you have to be President when you do this to pull it off. This is how Trump did it anyway.
2. Using campaign funds to pay off people to hide things so you can get elected (felony)
3. Sexually assaulting a woman in a department store then badmouthing her in public.
4. Running a scam "University" to steal funds from duped Americans.
5. Stealing from a "charity" that you created to fund a corrupt woman to get elected in Florida so you can have her be your personal lawyer later on after you've been elected President.

There's more but this is what I know of for sure.

 

[Fryowa]

Let's keep this on-topic. I know a couple of you guys want to turn this into the Trump thread from earlier, nobody wants that. The dead horse of scummy things Trump did and is doing has been beaten to an unrecognizable pulp already.

If you hate Trump and want to rail against him with like-minded people, Reddit is bursting at the seams with them.

 

[CP87]

Let's keep this on-topic. I know a couple of you guys want to turn this into the Trump thread from earlier, nobody wants that. The dead horse of scummy things Trump did and is doing has been beaten to an unrecognizable pulp already.

If you hate Trump and want to rail against him with like-minded people, Reddit is bursting at the seams with them.

Did you see any Chinese "dark factories" when you visited? That is, factories run 100% on robotics, hence no need to lighting/heating/etc., the usual comforts that human workers require. Technicians come in for about an hour a day to check on things, and then the robots just run non-stop for the remaining 23 hours.

 

[Fryowa]

Did you see any Chinese "dark factories" when you visited? That is, factories run 100% on robotics, hence no need to lighting/heating/etc., the usual comforts that human workers require. Technicians come in for about an hour a day to check on things, and then the robots just run non-stop for the remaining 23 hours.

I never visited any but have heard about it.

Actually there's a fairly large metal fabrication company about 20 miles form me that has a "dark" warehouse. I got to take a tour of it as part of a local manufacturing consortium we have up here. They specialize in laser cutting steel parts for other manufacturers in pretty high volume, and they went to a really big warehouse where they have automated robotic material handlers. They look like futuristic pallet jacks and are monitored by just a single person. Magnetic sensors in the floor tell them where they're at and reference where things need to get put away or gathered for shipping. Basically a human would take things off of a production line with a forklift and drop the pallets/tubs off at the entrance to the warehouse with an RFID tag attached. The robot will come to pick it up and has a scanner that will tell it the orientation of the pallet, it picks it up and puts it away. Same thing for gathering finished product for shipping when the semi trucks arrive to pick it up. Like you mentioned, no lights on, no humans (the warehouse has sensors that will shut everything down, turn the lights on, and start a siren if a person goes inside the boundaries), and no heat/AC.

The craziest thing is it's pretty big size-wise, and the robots move FAST. They did a demo for us from the control room with the lights on, if the robot has to make a trip the whole length of the warehouse without stopping (for example it picks something up at the door and it has to be put away at the far end), they will get up near 45 MPH, and they always move that fast when empty. Kinda scary to watch to be honest. There's no humans in the building so no danger of it hitting someone. There are crash barriers around the whole perimeter and all the racks if something goes haywire.

It was told to us on the tour that one person in the control room replaced (I think) 11 people in the warehouse total, and they made a point to say that all of those people were relocated in the plant, i.e. no one lost a job when they built it. They were just able to be moved where they were needed more, the labor market is super tight around here and I believe that. They probably had trouble hiring enough people for the main plant, so that was likely an easy way to fill those jobs and take burden off those areas.

They said their next step was to automate material handling 100% from the loading of the machines with raw steel, unloading finished parts, and transporting them from the machines to the warehouse they already have. Pretty wild stuff. It was a couple years ago we toured the place so I have no idea where they're at with the rest of it.

 

[Hay Man]

So what happens to the American workforce once these big corporations figure out that robots can do the jobs for much less over time? It's going to happen at some point throughout manufacturing, other than places that need actual humans overseeing the processes.

The high paying jobs those people had will be replaced, but I'm sure these companies won't find other jobs for them to do. Not many unions around to protect those employees. There has to be new jobs created or wouldn't the lack of high paying jobs destroy the economy?

 

[CP87]

I never visited any but have heard about it.

Actually there's a fairly large metal fabrication company about 20 miles form me that has a "dark" warehouse. I got to take a tour of it as part of a local manufacturing consortium we have up here. They specialize in laser cutting steel parts for other manufacturers in pretty high volume, and they went to a really big warehouse where they have automated robotic material handlers. They look like futuristic pallet jacks and are monitored by just a single person. Magnetic sensors in the floor tell them where they're at and reference where things need to get put away or gathered for shipping. Basically a human would take things off of a production line with a forklift and drop the pallets/tubs off at the entrance to the warehouse with an RFID tag attached. The robot will come to pick it up and has a scanner that will tell it the orientation of the pallet, it picks it up and puts it away. Same thing for gathering finished product for shipping when the semi trucks arrive to pick it up. Like you mentioned, no lights on, no humans (the warehouse has sensors that will shut everything down, turn the lights on, and start a siren if a person goes inside the boundaries), and no heat/AC.

The craziest thing is it's pretty big size-wise, and the robots move FAST. They did a demo for us from the control room with the lights on, if the robot has to make a trip the whole length of the warehouse without stopping (for example it picks something up at the door and it has to be put away at the far end), they will get up near 45 MPH, and they always move that fast when empty. Kinda scary to watch to be honest. There's no humans in the building so no danger of it hitting someone. There are crash barriers around the whole perimeter and all the racks if something goes haywire.

It was told to us on the tour that one person in the control room replaced (I think) 11 people in the warehouse total, and they made a point to say that all of those people were relocated in the plant, i.e. no one lost a job when they built it. They were just able to be moved where they were needed more, the labor market is super tight around here and I believe that. They probably had trouble hiring enough people for the main plant, so that was likely an easy way to fill those jobs and take burden off those areas.

They said their next step was to automate material handling 100% from the loading of the machines with raw steel, unloading finished parts, and transporting them from the machines to the warehouse they already have. Pretty wild stuff. It was a couple years ago we toured the place so I have no idea where they're at with the rest of it.

By brother in law just completed a degree related to working with this stuff...I believe it was called mechatronics. Great time to get into this field!

There is going to be labor force replacement at some point, but we can't fall miles behind due to fear of that. I think we need to rapidly automate, and just as rapidly come up with our parallel plan to deal with displacement.

I say that knowing full well that AI can do my job as well as me now and will greatly surpass me within 5 years.

 

[Hay Man]

By brother in law just completed a degree related to working with this stuff...I believe it was called mechatronics. Great time to get into this field!

There is going to be labor force replacement at some point, but we can't fall miles behind due to fear of that. I think we need to rapidly automate, and just as rapidly come up with our parallel plan to deal with displacement.

I say that knowing full well that AI can do my job as well as me now and will greatly surpass me within 5 years.

Absolutely agree with this. We can not afford to fall behind any further than where we are now.

 

[Fryowa]

By brother in law just completed a degree related to working with this stuff...I believe it was called mechatronics. Great time to get into this field!

There is going to be labor force replacement at some point, but we can't fall miles behind due to fear of that. I think we need to rapidly automate, and just as rapidly come up with our parallel plan to deal with displacement.

I say that knowing full well that AI can do my job as well as me now and will greatly surpass me within 5 years.

Absolutely agree with this. We can not afford to fall behind any further than where we are now.

A lot of the leading AI scientists (not just talking LLMs like ChatGTP, AI in general) think that if the human race lasts long enough AI will basically do literally everything and make it so work isn't a thing. Which sounds ridiculous but if you think about it, it's exactly the sort of way our prehistorical ancestors would've looked at us having agriculture and machinery. They had to chase down food and kill it risking death every day, had no medical treatment at all, and had to scrounge around for berries and water just to keep alive. The early primates probably had a life expectancy of 20 years if they were lucky. I mean look at every job there is on the planet involving production of a good or service required for the way we live. It wouldn't be "putting us out of a job," we wouldn't need jobs.

Robots could do every boring, dangerous, and repetitive job there is eventually, and we would be free to just kick back and have fun.

One thing Bostrom points out is that at a certain point of AI processing power, even thinking up new ideas and solutions would be done by AI. For instance we want flying cars, but human brain power and human technology & understanding of physics makes it impossible in a practical sense. Put a quantum computing AI on it and it will formulate the idea, design, and carry it out in no time flat. In other words, the robots would come up with the idea, the design, and then they'd go out and produce the materials required from start to finish.

I know that idea sounds horrible to some, but those people are troglodytes. I can't imagine the Neolithic people would've thought the tech we have now would be possible, let alone an enjoyable environment to live in. I don't know about you, but I enjoy not having to chase bison around with a spear and cut it up with a sharp rock or die of starvation, and I like turning a faucet on for sanitary water. I enjoy pushing a button and stepping on a pedal to get me 60 miles away from my house in under an hour while listening to music.

This is no different; we can still have leisure and enjoyment, it's just that robots would be doing anything unpleasant much better than we can now. The future humans (if the species lasts long enough) will look at us just like we look at Neolithic life with horror.

"Oh my god, they had to build machines with their hands to fly them around on earth, and they actually dug up minerals with machines that they ran themselves?"

"Oh my god, they had diseases that no one knew the cure for so they just...died?"

If you take all the unpleasant labor out of the equation and had a computer smart enough to come up with resources to make anything and everything you could ever want, there'd be no China vs the US. There would be no need at the micro or macro level to be the group that had accumulated the most rocks and apples. Religious dogma would die a long overdue death. I won't live long enough to even see the start of it, but hopefully my great great great great great grandkids will.

 

[CP87]

A lot of the leading AI scientists (not just talking LLMs like ChatGTP, AI in general) think that if the human race lasts long enough AI will basically do literally everything and make it so work isn't a thing. Which sounds ridiculous but if you think about it, it's exactly the sort of way our prehistorical ancestors would've looked at us having agriculture and machinery. They had to chase down food and kill it risking death every day, had no medical treatment at all, and had to scrounge around for berries and water just to keep alive. The early primates probably had a life expectancy of 20 years if they were lucky. I mean look at every job there is on the planet involving production of a good or service required for the way we live. It wouldn't be "putting us out of a job," we wouldn't need jobs.

Robots could do every boring, dangerous, and repetitive job there is eventually, and we would be free to just kick back and have fun.

One thing Bostrom points out is that at a certain point of AI processing power, even thinking up new ideas and solutions would be done by AI. For instance we want flying cars, but human brain power and human technology & understanding of physics makes it impossible in a practical sense. Put a quantum computing AI on it and it will formulate the idea, design, and carry it out in no time flat. In other words, the robots would come up with the idea, the design, and then they'd go out and produce the materials required from start to finish.

I know that idea sounds horrible to some, but those people are troglodytes. I can't imagine the Neolithic people would've thought the tech we have now would be possible, let alone an enjoyable environment to live in. I don't know about you, but I enjoy not having to chase bison around with a spear and cut it up with a sharp rock or die of starvation, and I like turning a faucet on for sanitary water. I enjoy pushing a button and stepping on a pedal to get me 60 miles away from my house in under an hour while listening to music.

This is no different; we can still have leisure and enjoyment, it's just that robots would be doing anything unpleasant much better than we can now. The future humans (if the species lasts long enough) will look at us just like we look at Neolithic life with horror.

"Oh my god, they had to build machines with their hands to fly them around on earth, and they actually dug up minerals with machines that they ran themselves?"

"Oh my god, they had diseases that no one knew the cure for so they just...died?"

If you take all the unpleasant labor out of the equation and had a computer smart enough to come up with resources to make anything and everything you could ever want, there'd be no China vs the US. There would be no need at the micro or macro level to be the group that had accumulated the most rocks and apples. Religious dogma would die a long overdue death. I won't live long enough to even see the start of it, but hopefully my great great great great great grandkids will.

Sounds like Utopia, except for the fact that labor is our society's only tool for redistributing the wealth that productivity leads to. If we have massive increases in productivity and hence wealth, but no means to distribute it, then what?

Probably as important, we need to figure out what our lives are for. Most of us define ourselves via our jobs/economic output. If humans are no longer responsible for that, how do we derive meaning in our lives? There are all sorts of very pro-social ways we can think about ourselves, but this will be a massive change at how we look at things.

 

[Fryowa]

So what happens to the American workforce once these big corporations figure out that robots can do the jobs for much less over time? It's going to happen at some point throughout manufacturing, other than places that need actual humans overseeing the processes.

The high paying jobs those people had will be replaced, but I'm sure these companies won't find other jobs for them to do. Not many unions around to protect those employees. There has to be new jobs created or wouldn't the lack of high paying jobs destroy the economy?

The same thing any time there's been a major technological advancement in the course of human history going back hundreds of thousands of years. Life gets easier on the whole.

When the internal combustion engine came about people thought everyone was going to just lose their job and waste away of starvation and lack of work.

It's not that way. We can't look at technological advancement as a death sentence. If and when it happens the species will adapt just like it did when say, agriculture was "invented." People will adjust, resources will be more plentiful and available, and people will continue to increase their standard of living. The only caveat is that it has to happen before humans kill themselves in a war.

We didn't die out or go backwards as a species when agriculture or the internal combustion engine came along, and those were technologies at the time that were just as earth-shattering as AI will be.