Just as caveat, here is a fun stat that I haven't seen mentioned here.
In the second half of the MSU and PSU games, NW has been outscored 63-10. They gave up a game winning drive against Purdue, and needed a last second miracle to beat a Minnesota team that even Washington State fans think is bad. They're not a good team. They have a better record than Indiana, but this would be the bigger upset.
If Iowa doesn't turn it over, and doesn't shoot itself in the foot with penalties, Iowa wins. Simple as that.