NIT Chances

Gohawks123 said:
I can't believe people are still bringing up the NCAA tournament.

Harp on RPI being flawed all you want, the bottom line is the committee uses it and Iowa is 130th. Even making it to the BIG championship we won't crack 100. Our OOC SOS is a joke and our conference schedule is the easiest in the BIG (only team to play OSU and MSU only once).

The bad losses cancel out the good wins. So please...stop putting false hope into people saying Iowa can still get an at large. It's not happening.
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Did you read the title of the thread? Did you read the posts? Your post suggests that you did not. The NCAA discussion has been centered around NW making the big dance which helps Iowa's chances for an at large bid into the NIT (which is what the thread is about).
 


ssckelley said:
Did you read the title of the thread? Did you read the posts? Your post suggests that you did not. The NCAA discussion has been centered around NW making the big dance which helps Iowa's chances for an at large bid into the NIT (which is what the thread is about).
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There are posts stating Iowa can still get on the NCAA bubble.
 


Gohawks123 said:
There are posts stating Iowa can still get on the NCAA bubble.
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I seen 1 post that says we are NCAA bound if we win out and make a deep run. Spanks post discusses the overall situation both NIT & NCAA. Not a likely scenario but both of them are correct.

Add something to the NIT discussion would ya?
 


Gohawks123 said:
I can't believe people are still bringing up the NCAA tournament.

Harp on RPI being flawed all you want, the bottom line is the committee uses it and Iowa is 130th. Even making it to the BIG championship we won't crack 100. Our OOC SOS is a joke and our conference schedule is the easiest in the BIG (only team to play OSU and MSU only once).

The bad losses cancel out the good wins. So please...stop putting false hope into people saying Iowa can still get an at large. It's not happening.
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I think I know what I am talking about...
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/basketball/43240-bracetology-2012-a.html#post732290

If Iowa gets those 5 wins, their RPI will dramatically lower. Their non-conf sucked yes and will hinder them. I don't think Iowa's getting into the Dance. It's nearly impossible. I'm just stating my opinion on where I see Iowa's chances for postseason, and as the link I provided shows, I normally do a pretty good job at just that.
 


We need to win some games...period. We need to win both of these games this week, we should, but this season so far says we probably won't. We are too inconsistent to put together a run. CBI is our likely destination.
 






storminspank said:
I think I know what I am talking about...
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/basketball/43240-bracetology-2012-a.html#post732290

If Iowa gets those 5 wins, their RPI will dramatically lower. Their non-conf sucked yes and will hinder them. I don't think Iowa's getting into the Dance. It's nearly impossible. I'm just stating my opinion on where I see Iowa's chances for postseason, and as the link I provided shows, I normally do a pretty good job at just that.
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I don't think anyone is doubting Iowa's ability to get in if they win five games in a row. I think we are doubting the realism that we can win a game on the road (we've done it only twice), and then beat Northwestern, then beat Illinois on a neutral site, then beat Ohio State on a neutral site and then beat Wisconsin or Purdue on a neutral site.

Nothing we've done indicates that we're capable of that kind of consistency. I hope we can do it, but I think a major tragedy of this season is fans' inability to enjoy the ride based on unrealistic expectations. Is this season negated if we don't go dancing? No...and to do so would be a St. Patrick's miracle.
 


storminspank said:
I think I know what I am talking about...
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/basketball/43240-bracetology-2012-a.html#post732290

If Iowa gets those 5 wins, their RPI will dramatically lower. Their non-conf sucked yes and will hinder them. I don't think Iowa's getting into the Dance. It's nearly impossible. I'm just stating my opinion on where I see Iowa's chances for postseason, and as the link I provided shows, I normally do a pretty good job at just that.
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RPI will not jump 50 spots with 5 more wins. For Iowa to have any chance of being on the bubble it needs the RPI to get below 80. Its simply not possible if you crunch the numbers, even if we were to beat OSU in the BTT.

I trust your basketball knowledge Spank, but you've shown to have an Iowa bias. If it was any other team name in front of Iowa's resume you would say they have no shot even with 5 wins, because they don't.
 


Gohawks123 said:
RPI will not jump 50 spots with 5 more wins. For Iowa to have any chance of being on the bubble it needs the RPI to get below 80. Its simply not possible if you crunch the numbers, even if we were to beat OSU in the BTT.

I trust your basketball knowledge Spank, but you've shown to have an Iowa bias. If it was any other team name in front of Iowa's resume you would say they have no shot even with 5 wins, because they don't.
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I won't deny the Iowa bias, not one bit.
Iowa sits in the 120 range right now... if they win out, that won't move much... maybe 5-8 spots. So they go into the BTT at 115ish. They would then face three quality opponents and they could, theoretically, drop an additional 30 spots with some of those wins. They'd be in the 80s - almost certainly out of the mix for an auto-bid. That said, they would have 6 or 7 wins over Top 50 RPI teams. That's unheard of for an 80 RPI team. It's going to be very interesting to see what that would do to the selection, esp considering just how God-awful the bubble is this year. There are going to be 4 or 5 teams that have no reason to be in the tourney - Iowa included. All that said, it's very very unlikely to happen. Iowa needs to run off 5 games in a row - something they haven't done in almost a half of decade.

For a non-biased opinion, Medcalf wrote that the same situation, at least Iowa has to be looked at and maybe gets in:
Conference Power Rankings: Big Ten - College Basketball Nation Blog - ESPN

I don't see it happening, but as far as NIT - I think if Iowa gets those last two, they'll need 1 or 2 to get it. 2 would secure it for sure.

A lot of "if"s though.

But I'll say this - it's a heck of a lot more fun to talk about this stuff, even as infeasible as it may be. A lot more fun that what we have been used to talking about in March.
 


Storminspank> If we win out, our three Big Ten Tournament opponents will almost certainly be:

1. Illinois (rpi: 72)
2. Ohio State (rpi:7)
3. Wisconsin (rpi: 27), Purdue (rpi: 40) or Nebraska (rpi: 128)

Now, best case scenario, we finish beating the rpis 128, 43 72, 7, and 27. Is that really going to be enough to hoist us into the 80s? All the way from 130? You have a better grasp on the intricacies than I do, so I'm asking you seriously, because I just don't see it.
 


wundergrape said:
Storminspank> If we win out, our three Big Ten Tournament opponents will almost certainly be:

1. Illinois (rpi: 72)
2. Ohio State (rpi:7)
3. Wisconsin (rpi: 27), Purdue (rpi: 40) or Nebraska (rpi: 128)

Now, best case scenario, we finish beating the rpis 128, 43 72, 7, and 27. Is that really going to be enough to hoist us into the 80s? All the way from 130? You have a better grasp on the intricacies than I do, so I'm asking you seriously, because I just don't see it.
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This makes sense. You're the smartest guy I know.
 


wundergrape said:
Storminspank> If we win out, our three Big Ten Tournament opponents will almost certainly be:

1. Illinois (rpi: 72)
2. Ohio State (rpi:7)
3. Wisconsin (rpi: 27), Purdue (rpi: 40) or Nebraska (rpi: 128)

Now, best case scenario, we finish beating the rpis 128, 43 72, 7, and 27. Is that really going to be enough to hoist us into the 80s? All the way from 130? You have a better grasp on the intricacies than I do, so I'm asking you seriously, because I just don't see it.
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People aren't figuring in that we are already almost 30 games deep in the season and each game thereafter has less and less effect on your RPI. We are at 130 right now. It gets harder and harder to move the needle as the games add up.

Take a look at our win against Wisky. It only moved us up 6 spots in the RPI. There's too many bad losses weighing us down. 5 wins gets us to MAYBE RPI of 95-100. MAYBE.
 




wundergrape said:
Storminspank> If we win out, our three Big Ten Tournament opponents will almost certainly be:

1. Illinois (rpi: 72)
2. Ohio State (rpi:7)
3. Wisconsin (rpi: 27), Purdue (rpi: 40) or Nebraska (rpi: 128)

Now, best case scenario, we finish beating the rpis 128, 43 72, 7, and 27. Is that really going to be enough to hoist us into the 80s? All the way from 130? You have a better grasp on the intricacies than I do, so I'm asking you seriously, because I just don't see it.
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It's going to really depend on what the other teams around Iowa do.
The good thing is that all the games are vs. RPI 150. Unlike the non-conf when Iowa sucked in a bunch of 300+ RPI teams. The Hawks can move if they win. Going from 120s to 80s will be an accomplishment, but teams that are 100+ can move easier than those that are 60 or better... usually because the teams ahead of them continue to win. There's more movement in the 75-200 range than the 75 and under range. Can Iowa move 40 spots in 5 games? It will take a lot of things to go right for Iowa, but beating OSU or MSU would be a big boost. Wins over Indiana and Wisc took Iowa up over 20 spots... they were in the 140s and bumped into the hundy-teens. Again, a lot of things have to go right. Is it possible? Yes. It's it probable? No. Not at all.

Also, I just want to make the point that I am not advocating anything necessarily, just putting out the info and my thoughts on it. Previously I thought if Iowa wins on the road vs. Illinois, they'd need to win out and then get 2 in the BTT. Now that basically moves to win out and get 3 in the BTT, as losing on the road to a Top 100 RPI team doesn't hurt you as bad as you'd think. Still... not much of a chance, and even if they do reel off 5 wins, they aren't a lock. They'd still on the bubble, a big bubble, a soft bubble that will be ever inflating/deflating as the next two weeks happen. If this was any other season with a semi-strong bubble, there would be no chance for Iowa. But it just happens to be that this year's bubble teams are atrocious, which helps Iowa out.
 


I want to expound on the matchups Iowa might face in the BTT, as well.

They can get anywhere between the 6 and 9 seed. I think they end up 7th. Let's just go with that. And the seed below are just my projections with a week to go.

Iowa would get the 10 seed - Minnesota
Then the 2 seed - Ohio State
Then the 3, 6, or 11 seed - Michigan, Purdue, Penn State

Likely scenario: Minnesota (81), Ohio State (8), Michigan (14) and then play MSU (6) in the championship.

Getting wins over two Top 25 RPI teams would be a huge boost and even just playing MSU is going to help Iowa's SOS - albeit, the committee will probably already have their mind set before that champ game on Iowa - either in regardless or out if they lose.

I think you can envision a big spike, but let's be honest, Iowa is not that great away from home. And last time they played OSU at home they got railroaded. It's a big pipe dream right now.

NIT would probably need 2 or 3 wins out of Iowa or else it's the CBI/CIT
 


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