NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Correct. We are having a discussion about potentially competing for a B1G regular season title next year.
Next years team could be SALTY
- Thread starter koralakers
- Start date
I think we can with average defense as long as there isn't a 1 type seed in the conference like this year. If MSU is a top 4 team next year, we probably won't win it with average defense. That depends on conference schedules tho. Maybe we only play them once and it's at home.
StatelineHawk
Well-Known Member
Hawks played in Minneapolis in 1986 and 1991. What a great time. ISU and Iowa were both there in 1986.Unless you're playing Duke in Greensboro.But for the most part, that's true. Iowa beat Cincinnati in Columbus last year IIRC, right?
I love how there is ALWAYS a site in NC.. It's always kind of steamed my clams that the top seeds basically get to play on their home courts and it's called a "neutral" court. It'd be nice if Iowa got to even play an NCAA game in the Midwest for a change. When's the last time that happened? Minneapolis in 1991?
Ok, that's my mini rant for the day.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
I agree - win at a higher level and it would help.
Still - even our 2 seed in 1987 got shipped out west. The 4 seed in 1993 - Nashville (not TOO bad). 6 seed in 1996, got to play AZ in Tempe in the 2nd round. 5 seed in 1999, Arizona. The committee has typically never done us any favors.
2006, the 3 seed.. I'm seeing that was Auburn Hill, MI. Fair enough. Had to look that one up.
Sounds like there's a chance this year with a lot of nearby sites, but I'm betting we still get sent elsewhere assuming we get in of course. Seemed like last year's game in Columbus is about as close to home as I can recall in a long time.
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NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
I would think Michigan State would be down losing Winston and Tillman (they might lose Henry too). Michigan loses Simpson, Teske, and I’d imagine Livers. Maryland loses Cowan and Smith. Ohio State probably loses both Wesson’s but is set to return a ton. They might be a favorite in the league. Wisconsin returns a ton as does Purdue and Rutgers I think.
Think the league will be similar to this year with a lot of good teams. Okay that’s looking too far down the road a lot can happen, let’s focus in on our upcoming ranked matchup with Rutgers (who would have predicted that).
No doubt. It feels like we are just a HEALTHY JBo away from being unreal. Honestly you sub out JT and Evelyns mins for him and holy cow... The thought of JBo CJF, JW and CM surrounding Garza is unreal. We have already pretty much reached the point of pick your poison with how you want to defend us. JBo being healthy and not a shell of himself out there would've made a huge difference this yr.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
If we assume that everyone is coming back and healthy, this team will be beyond salty. They could be filthy.
If this works out, you slide Jabo back to the point, JW and CJ at the wings, and I am hard pressed to remove CM from the starting line-up the way he glues it all together. Imagine Garza being just as good next year, even better. So you got a 20+ a night center. And when you double or triple him, you have three perimeter guys who are all above 40% three point shooters.
Yes, the defense will be a bit worse with Bohannon, but you have a starting line-up that alone should average 65-70 points a night. We should be able to just outscore most teams most nights.
You still have Joe T and Nunge off the bench, plus I assume a couple incoming frosh who can contribute. Filthy.
If this works out, you slide Jabo back to the point, JW and CJ at the wings, and I am hard pressed to remove CM from the starting line-up the way he glues it all together. Imagine Garza being just as good next year, even better. So you got a 20+ a night center. And when you double or triple him, you have three perimeter guys who are all above 40% three point shooters.
Yes, the defense will be a bit worse with Bohannon, but you have a starting line-up that alone should average 65-70 points a night. We should be able to just outscore most teams most nights.
You still have Joe T and Nunge off the bench, plus I assume a couple incoming frosh who can contribute. Filthy.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Don’t forget Pat McCaffery who was a consensus top 100 recruit who will be a year stronger.
homes
Well-Known Member
They'll need him next year. I think he stays.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Agreed and that is the real question. I want to see what our roster next year looks like first before talking much about this sort of thing.
IF everyone does indeed return, expectations will be sky high, as they should be. I really want to see everyone back so we can find out!
For this year, the apparent lack of defense is not only necessary because of lack of depth, but really by design. When Garza, Wieskamp, CJ and CMac are on the floor together, we are so elite offensively and so incredibly efficient, it would take most of our opponents to operate at their absolute best offensively to beat us even if we were merely performing to our own average. Right now, we are 5th in the NCAA in offensive efficiency at 1.099 pts. per 100 possessions. Here is how the B1G ranks:
5. Iowa 1.099
14. MSU 1.08
23. Michigan 1.07
40. OSU 1.056
48. PSU 1.048
69. Indiana 1.037
77. Illinois 1.033
80. Minnesota 1.030
101. Wisconsin 1.016
113. Maryland 1.010
148. Rutgers .994
163. Purdue .988
193. NW .973
218. Nebraska .958
This efficiency is due to having the most skilled big man in college basketball (and probably the last 2 decades) and 2 elite shooters. This puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses because if they dont double Garza he will foul out your big man guaranteed, and if you double him he will find one of these guys that will shoot at a nearly 45% clip. The core of this elite efficiency is based on getting the ball into Garza in the post and really only starts there.
Here are the neutralizing factors to our efficiency:
1. Get Garza in foul trouble and get him off the floor.
2. Get either Wieskamp or CJ, or both, and get them off the floor, which allows teams to double the post and restrict entry. Even triple if they are desperate.
3. Turnovers
4. Negative in foul shooting attempts.
5. Reducing number of possessions.
Saying all that, it all adds up that we are better off playing zone, protecting our players from foul trouble. One would say that if a team hits 10 threes, tip your hat to them and go on to the next one. But Michigan hit 11 and we still won. That happened because we had such an advantage at the free throw line, and it was all by design. Juwan Howard can complain all he wants that his team was going to the basket too and it wasnt fair, but the difference was that we didnt contest them. If they drove in the lane we didnt make matters worse by fouling them, putting them at the line and getting a team foul. Also, when you foul someone, it slows down game flow by reducing the fast break opportunities. We arent necessarily a typical fast break team, but in transition Garza moves so well and hustles that it allows us to get the ball to him in the post much easier.
Now, we will go on the road, like what will happen at Michigan State, where they will mug our guys, beat the crap out of Garza and you look up and we have 7 team fouls and they have 2. That is life on the road and there is no way to combat that. But for the tournament, where we go to the line a bunch, they don't, we get in transition, they don't, we play our players 35 minutes and they don't, we will be a tough out.
5. Iowa 1.099
14. MSU 1.08
23. Michigan 1.07
40. OSU 1.056
48. PSU 1.048
69. Indiana 1.037
77. Illinois 1.033
80. Minnesota 1.030
101. Wisconsin 1.016
113. Maryland 1.010
148. Rutgers .994
163. Purdue .988
193. NW .973
218. Nebraska .958
This efficiency is due to having the most skilled big man in college basketball (and probably the last 2 decades) and 2 elite shooters. This puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses because if they dont double Garza he will foul out your big man guaranteed, and if you double him he will find one of these guys that will shoot at a nearly 45% clip. The core of this elite efficiency is based on getting the ball into Garza in the post and really only starts there.
Here are the neutralizing factors to our efficiency:
1. Get Garza in foul trouble and get him off the floor.
2. Get either Wieskamp or CJ, or both, and get them off the floor, which allows teams to double the post and restrict entry. Even triple if they are desperate.
3. Turnovers
4. Negative in foul shooting attempts.
5. Reducing number of possessions.
Saying all that, it all adds up that we are better off playing zone, protecting our players from foul trouble. One would say that if a team hits 10 threes, tip your hat to them and go on to the next one. But Michigan hit 11 and we still won. That happened because we had such an advantage at the free throw line, and it was all by design. Juwan Howard can complain all he wants that his team was going to the basket too and it wasnt fair, but the difference was that we didnt contest them. If they drove in the lane we didnt make matters worse by fouling them, putting them at the line and getting a team foul. Also, when you foul someone, it slows down game flow by reducing the fast break opportunities. We arent necessarily a typical fast break team, but in transition Garza moves so well and hustles that it allows us to get the ball to him in the post much easier.
Now, we will go on the road, like what will happen at Michigan State, where they will mug our guys, beat the crap out of Garza and you look up and we have 7 team fouls and they have 2. That is life on the road and there is no way to combat that. But for the tournament, where we go to the line a bunch, they don't, we get in transition, they don't, we play our players 35 minutes and they don't, we will be a tough out.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
That's life on the road PLUS the Tom Izzo factor when you are playing at Michigan State.
sioux34
Well-Known Member
I hope that is true, but Nunge really had not showed that prior to going down to injury this season.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
I think the only senior departing player we will miss is Kreiner. He has been a warrior for 4 years and has been a great role/bench guy and brings hussle and fire off the bench.
I hope Pemsl stays to be a part of a potentially special season, but I hope he does not play much. If he is getting significant minutes next year, it is because of three bad things: 1) Nunge does not come back healthy; 2) our new freshman big is not as good as advertised; or 3) Fran is playing too long a bench again.
I hope Pemsl stays to be a part of a potentially special season, but I hope he does not play much. If he is getting significant minutes next year, it is because of three bad things: 1) Nunge does not come back healthy; 2) our new freshman big is not as good as advertised; or 3) Fran is playing too long a bench again.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Nunge might not offer the scoring of Kriener but that doesn’t mean he can’t provide equal or even a better production. He’s taller and moves his feet better (hopefully after the ACL). He could be a better defensive presence, and potentially better rebounder. He will likely turn over the ball much less which has really been a big issue throughout Kriener’s career.
Kriener is a quality player for us right now and I’m not knocking him in the slightest, I’m just giving reasons why Nunge could provide similar and possibly better production.
4) we are blowing everyone out.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Kriener has shot the ball well this year, but it seems he basically has to be wide open for him to take it and make it. Nunge on the other had has a quicker and higher release. He almost looked like a guard on some of his shots. Now I don’t think it will be in our best interest for him to be pulling contested threes next year but it’s possible he’s a pretty good shooter. As you also said he made a few mid range shots against that zone that looked pretty pure and repeatable for him.
I was always pretty high on Nunge, and maybe too high, but his sample size this year was way too small for me to make a sweeping judgement about who he was as a player.
I incorrectly assumed that Pat would be an impact player this year but vastly underestimated the wear and tear college practices would take on him. I think we'll all be left with some lingering concerns until we see him play a string of games together.
I've been the same way on Nunge. All the potential in the world but seemingly no confidence to go with it.
