NCAA tournament projections: Iowa or out?

Currently, Iowa is out. That's obvious. However I think they get in because there are a lot of pathways to get in. As others have stated, Iowa is in need of good wins more than they are anything else. There are 3 good teams left on the schedule (Illinois, Indiana, Minny). Win 2 of 3 and you are probably in at 10-8 as long as you win your first game against PSU in the BTT. Lose against PSU in the BTT and you are probably out but the chance of losing to PSU is probably remote.

10-8=85% chance
9-9=25% chance
9-9 + 2BTT wins = 80% chance
9-9 + 1BTT win = 50% chance

Just gotta win against the good teams. It doesn't really matter if you stack up wins against NW, PSU or Nebraska. The committee is going to look to see if you've beaten anyone good. Then they'll look to see if you've beaten anyone good away from home.
 
Your RPI is really low for a tourney team. Even if you beat the dogs on the schedule the RPI isn't likely to jump much and the SOS looks like it will head south too.
 
I say 10-8 with 1 BTT victory gets us in the NCAAs. 9-9 with 2 BTT victories will get us in. Playing in the B1G this year is not a cake walk. We will get notice for that alone.
Iowa would have benefited greatly had we played the latter half of our B1G schedule at the beginning. That would have been huge for this young team.
 
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