NCAA Tournament for Iowa in 2013?

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
How likely, or unlikely do you think that is?

I ask based upon someone taking exception with my asserting in my item on McCaffery's new contract that I think a trip to this year's tournament is unlikely. Curious as to the general consensus around here.

I'd put their chances somewhere around 30%
 
So many variables this year, that it makes it extremely tough to gauge.....

1. Does White pick up where he left off last year or does he experience the dreaded "sophomore slump"?

2. Can Gesell come in right away and take the reigns of the offense as the starting point guard?

3. Can we get defensive and rebounding production out of our 5 spot (Woodbury, Olaseni, etc)?

4. Does Marble take that "next step" in his game?

5. Can McCaffrey solve our defensive issues, especially in the backcourt?

6. Where will the leadership come from now that Gatens is gone and we have only one senior?

7. Where will the outside shooting that we rode for a good stretch at the end of the season going to come from?


A lot of question marks, for sure, but it's better than it used to be when we were just resigned every year to saying "oh no, we suck again!!".

I'll go out on a limb and say that we'll be in the discussion for a berth from the start of the Big 10 season and then make a run in the BTT to sneak in as a 10 seed.
 
JonDMiller said:
so then how in the heck do you say 50%?
Click to expand...

Because overall they have more talent on this team.

By the Big Ten season

Gessel => Cartwright.
White = Gatens
Marble and McCabe improved
Basabe return to freshman form rather than sophomore

Woodbury, Olesani, Meyer much better than Brommer & Archie

Eric May may finally be healthy enough to contribute again.

Josh O ready to be more consistent

Two freshman guards add depth and athletism we did not have last year.
 
I think as goes gessel as goed iowa. we have enough depth and talent everywhere else to compete. obvously sg is a bit of a questionmark considering what we lost in gatens but i think we have a decent idea of what is comming back there in Oglesthree and Marble.
 
I think we might flirt with the bubble but I see 2014 as not only a year we go dancing but one where we make a run provided noone leaves.
 
I order to put a % don't you have to figure how close they were the previous year? Injuries hurt us in the noncon schedule last year. How many B1G games did we leave on the table. Definitely both purdue games. Without the injuries and being able to finish the purdue games we may have been on the bubble.

That being said, has the B1G champ ever not made it? ;-)
 
They should be a bubble team. Im counting on them having a better record in non-con then they did last year. I think a lot will depend on Gesell and Ogelsby and any help they can get from othe rfrshman guards because can't get to the tournamen without good guard play.
 
HawkeyeMcNutt said:
50% chance. They need to be even better in the conference, which could be a tougher task than it was last year.
Click to expand...

I disagree. We only need to be the same in the conference. We need to be better in the non-con, and not lose games to UNI, Campbell (or Campbell-equivalent) and Virginia Tech. If we can maintain in conference and be better in non-con, we are in.
 
I think we have a 50/50 shot at making the dance. I think we will be battling for the 5-6-7 slots in the conference. 5 will be in for sure, 6 is probable and 7 on the bubble. The Big 10 is going to be terriffic this year so Iowa will need to be much improved to go dancing. I think we will be much improved.
 
If forced to choose...

JonDMiller said:
How likely, or unlikely do you think that is?

I ask based upon someone taking exception with my asserting in my item on McCaffery's new contract that I think a trip to this year's tournament is unlikely. Curious as to the general consensus around here.

I'd put their chances somewhere around 30%
Click to expand...

I would say somewhat less than 50% this year, but wouldn't be shocked if they did make it.

Factors in favor

1) Non-conference schedule. Play Iowa State at home (I'd give Iowa a 50/50 shot of winning this game), no game at UNI. Play on the road in ACC/B1G Challenge, but at Va. Tech is not unwinnagle.
2) Better overall depth/size. Woodbury/Meyer/Olaseni have potential to offer more resistance near the basket. Also having more available bodies on the perimeter (Gessell, Marble, Oglesby, May, Clemmons, Ingraham) should mean Iowa can at least give better effort on perimeter defense.
3) Room for improvement from returning players. If Marble, Basabe, McCabe, White all make steps forward, the team will be better. Period. And a couple of the incoming freshmen are ready to contribute/play well, now you have something.

Factors against

1) Horrendous defensive team a year ago and lost best perimeter defender. Iowa was atrocious on D last year, the worst by far in the B1G. Can they improve to at least average?
2) Rest of league improving/maintaining. One could argue that Purdue and Illinois might be worse, but neither team will be terrible. Minnesota returns Mbawke and a good roster. Michigan got better. MSU will be very good. OSU will be very good. Wisky lost Taylor but returns a lot and added Dekker, a much higher-ranked player than any of Iowa's incoming freshmen.

If Iowa can at least not fall on its face in the non-con (think home losses to Campbell and Clemson) then the conference season will be very exciting.
 
The other variable will be how strong the bubble is. Last year, the bubble was terribly weak which was one of the reasons we were still being thrown around as a possible darkhorse. I don't know that the bubble will be nearly that weak this time around. Obviously hard to tell at this point.

One thing that is almost a shoe-in is the fact that the B1G is going to be considered, if not the BEST conference, then no lower than #2. With that being said, the B1G should have 7 teams make it. That will make the BTT so important because I think you're going to see that the spots 5-10 are going to be VERY wide open.
 
NCAA tourney? tourney? you talkin' tourney????
I just want to beat Campbell.
I'll start with that.

Step 1: beat teams named after a can of soup.
 
if White would have been as good for the whole year as he was at the end, that alone would have gotten us on the bubble. this year he will be that good the whole year, if not better
 
PCHawk said:
if White would have been as good for the whole year as he was at the end, that alone would have gotten us on the bubble. this year he will be that good the whole year, if not better
Click to expand...

We all hope so, but I think there's a good segment of the fan base that's holding it's collective breath given Basabe's performance last year after a stellar freshman campaign.
 
I'm with Miller on this one. Before I even read the full post I was thinking about 30% chance. I think part of my reason for 30% is just trying to temper my own enthusiasm so that I don't get too pished off if they don't make it. It's good to feel excited about the basketball team again, but I also realize they are still in rebuilding mode, even with the promising freshmen.
 
SpiderRico said:
PCHawk said:
if White would have been as good for the whole year as he was at the end, that alone would have gotten us on the bubble. this year he will be that good the whole year, if not better
Click to expand...
We all hope so, but I think there's a good segment of the fan base that's holding it's collective breath given Basabe's performance last year after a stellar freshman campaign.
Click to expand...

I think the 2 players are very different and the odds of white regressing are very slim
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Share this page

Top