My Hope For Cade This Saturday.

Hawkboys said:
Imagine the struts from BF if they put up 70 this weekend. He'll be over a 1/5 of the way to the points they need for the season.
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If they put up 75 they would be a quarter of the way there. Hell, I don't know how good ISU will be, but if we went out and put up an average of 50 in the non-con games and against NU, the Brain would only need about 12 points per game to hit his 25 number. The contract should have required a 24 point average in all the Big Ten games. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see us win the game 9-0 or something like that.
 
This game will be within one score at halftime. It’s just how we do things. Anyone hoping for being up 28 so we can put in the subs hasn’t been paying attention.
 
Hawkboys said:
Imagine the struts from BF if they put up 70 this weekend. He'll be over a 1/5 of the way to the points they need for the season.
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Headline on an Athletic article today:

Iowa embarks on the Drive for 325: ‘I’m extremely confident in this offense’​

 
eyekwah said:
The idea that Iowa will build a large lead in the first half is fool hardy, but do wish it were true. I think the offense is behind where it needs to be because McNamara hasn't had the practice reps going into the game. Secondly the new rule where the clock doesn't stop on first downs will shorten the number of plays. I also look for more penalties by the offense for delay of game and lineman movement. First games are notorious for mistakes. I could a close game like 10-7 at the end of the first half.
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We will see I guess.
 
These last 2 years have scarred us, but these last 2 years may well have been the outliers. The offense has never lit the world on fire, but it has rarely been as bad as '21 and '22 (excepting '12, which was equally atrocious).

Here is what Iowa did against non-P5 in the 5 seasons prior to 2020 (there was no non-con in '20):

2019:
38 - 14 over Miami of OH
48 - 3 over MTSU

2018 (recall, Stanley started this year in a major funk, got on track by throwing 28 times vs. UNI):
33 - 7 over NIU (6-2 in conference)
38 - 14 over UNI

2017:
24 - 3 over Wyoming (they had a decent QB)
31 - 14 over N. Texas

2016:
45 - 21 over Miami of OH
21 - 23 against NDSO (okay, maybe ignore that one)

2015:
31 - 14 over Illinois State
62 - 16 over N. Texas

Average score: 37 - 13 (24 pt margin).

Over the first 4 years of BF's tenure as OC, his average national rank in offensive efficiency was 50th, slightly above the middle of the pack (44th, 41st, 53rd, and 64th). Our average score against non-P5 was 35 - 9 (26 pt margin).

Over the last 2 years, his average was around 100th (90th in 2021; football outsiders is currently down, but I know it was in the 100s last year). Our average score against Non-P5 was 22 - 6 (16 pt margin).

So, were the last 2 years part of a trend, or were they outliers? If they were outliers, we would expect Iowa to beat a not-very-good USU team by 25+. If they were a trend, it could be a long Saturday.

We will see...
 
Grady said:
That would be nice...but I think highly unlikely. Thinking strategically -- as I would hope Iowa's coaches are doing -- it makes little sense to show any new wrinkles in the offense prior to next week's road game in Ames. The Hawks should be able to beat Utah St. doing nothing but the old school Iowa basics: run the ball, short passes to the TEs, special teams excellence, and defense. I expect to see little else on Saturday...and while that's boring to me as a fan who'll be in the stands, I would understand, especially given that our #1 and #2 QBs have missed most of fall camp with injuries. I'm OK with a 'just don't lose the game' mentality this week.
Next week vs the Clones, however, I totally agree with your suggestion.
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I agree with you, but at the same time I also think while not necessarily showing wrinkles you need to work on the sets and plays you would use moving forward. I agree that we can go vanilla (even for our offensive standards) and most likely get it done. However, I also think that mentality won't get it done next week and there's no better time or opportunity then doing so on game day. I agree you don't want them to have any additional film or extra looks at our playbook, but I also feel you need those in game opportunities to better prepare for when it really matters.
 
I guess to sum my last post up better. PSU is going to be one of the toughest games on our schedule as well as our conference opener. I think every non-conference snap needs to be centered around preparing for Happy Valley. If that means were looking down field because we may not be able to get the running game going then I think we need to be doing that the next 3 weeks regardless of showing our hand simply not playing specifically to "just win games".
 
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