My hoops season prediction for Iowa and the Big Ten Race

Iowa just needs to clean up the sloppiness.

We have been trying to do that for almost 4 years, Spank.

Sorry, but your "glass half full" predictions are way off. There is no way any reasonable human being could see this team winning more than 13 games.

And that was BEFORE yesterday's loss to a team called the "Jackrabbits".
 
I have no predictions other than this is a building process and it could be ugly before it gets better.

Right now our fan base needs to forget about the past and embrace our new coach and program direction. How can Fran recruit the players he needs going forward if there is a lack of support for the program in general?

I attended the game this past Sunday and the arena was half full (which was better than last year). It was disappointing to me one that the arena was half full and that a portion of the fans left with 5 minutes left in the game just to avoid post-game traffic.

I might be the only one that really enjoyed the game against SDSU and Fran's style of play. Yes I want to win but I respect the process and the tough work that is required to revitalize this program. There we stretches in the game that were really sloppy but there were stretches of fun, frenetic basketball. Despite a half full arena there were moments that many of us were on our feet and screaming. That was awesome and it can be that way again on a regular basis.

The kids played hard and I think there is a coach and players to rally around here.

Ask yourself this question.... What can I do to support this program? If you are too stuborn or ignorant to attend a game in support of the team then by all means try spreading positive encouragement to anyone you know that cares about Iowa basketball. Encourage them to encourage others and not get down by what does not go right. Creating a positive buzz is how we all can help Fran fill the roster with the players that are needed to play his system. It will work if we can get the players(we have some already) but it will never work if this fan base continues with this I won't support the program until it shows me something attitude.

Who is going to be a leader in our fan base?
 
We have been trying to do that for almost 4 years, Spank.

Sorry, but your "glass half full" predictions are way off. There is no way any reasonable human being could see this team winning more than 13 games.

And that was BEFORE yesterday's loss to a team called the "Jackrabbits".

A guy makes a 14-16 prediction and and we are going to go to the no reasonable human being could do such a thing card?

Easy trigger.
 
14 wins is definitely still a possibility. Don't mess with spank, haterz.

If the team shows a ton of growth from game to game, yes it is a possibility. but if game 1 was any indication, it is unlikely.

It's hard to take losing, but I think people should be satisified if the team shows legitimate improvement from game one through the end of the season. the big ten is tough so it may not be reflected in the win loss record, but over time the wins will come. The future under fran is much brighter than it ever was under Lick.

look at ISU in football. They will probably only win 5 games this year, but the improvements the team has made and the faith the coaching staff has instilled in the fanbase is clearly evident. I think that is the type of model that Iowa Basketball fans should hope for.
 
If the team shows a ton of growth from game to game, yes it is a possibility. but if game 1 was any indication, it is unlikely.

It's hard to take losing, but I think people should be satisified if the team shows legitimate improvement from game one through the end of the season. the big ten is tough so it may not be reflected in the win loss record, but over time the wins will come. The future under fran is much brighter than it ever was under Lick.

look at ISU in football. They will probably only win 5 games this year, but the improvements the team has made and the faith the coaching staff has instilled in the fanbase is clearly evident. I think that is the type of model that Iowa Basketball fans should hope for.

I like this post.

You know as much as I despise ISU I do commend their positivity despite the circumstances and i think it is paying dividends in at least getting their program to a respectable level. It drives me freaking batty but everytime they get someone on the radio you would think their program is on the verge of going to a BCS bowl game in football.

In this case I think this is what needs to be done by our fan base in basketball. Create a spin-mechanism to promote the re-vitalization of the b-ball program. I have a strong gut feel that we've got the right guy this time but the fan base needs to get the ball rolling to help Fran out. These first seasons are the toughest to get out of the box and show something with minimal help. Not to mention a brutal league this year.

John and others in the media, blogs need to start coming out and spewing a positive outlook for once and engaging others to talk the talk. Not this I expect everything to be perfect right now and early setback is a reason not to care. Patience, persistence, positivity and support are what this program needs most now. Emphasize what went right even in a loss.
 
Well when you are as wrong as he was last year and with a lot of people here seemingly looking at him as a "guru" it is justified.

I don't know what you mean by "as wrong as he was". It's not as if I predicted 22 wins and the team put up 10. I predicted 15-17 wins. This was my prediction based on a lot of things.

1.) I didn't expect Tucker's off the court problems to continue. He was Iowa's leading scorer when he first was suspended. Then he tried to return only to have the academic issues. The whole deal messed with team chemistry. Dynamics in basketball are extremely fluid.

2.) I didn't expect Aaron Fuller to be out for most of the non-conference and when he returned he wasn't 100% either.

3.) I didn't expect the offense to continue to be an issue to figure out. I thought year 3 would be long enough for everyone to grasp it.

4.) I didn't expect Iowa to be so bad inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

There are more, but these are some of the main things that I can remember from last year.

Was I wrong? Yep. I was.
How many times was I right last year on other basketball items, though?

The issue with predictions, is that it's pretty easy to rip on. I'm aware of that and I'll take the punches that are involved with it. That's fine.
 
I'm an ISU fan. Our squad lost to SDSU two years ago and I honestly think they are a program somewhat on the rise. That said our team two years ago sucked and it's still SDSU. Even without Gatens or "learning the offense" you would expect your talent to carry you against a team like that and it's a bad sign to lose to them, especially considering the relative strength of the Big 10 this year.
 
May and Gatens could be fun to watch this year and it should be interesting to see all of the kids play and learn and grow together......but I will be suprised if this team wins more than 9 games this year. I am hopeful, yet also trying to be realistic - I fully expect the Hawks to have a difficult season. The state of Division 1 college basketball in the state of Iowa is in a bad place this year - will any of the "Big 4" make it to post season play? I think not.
 
I don't know what you mean by "as wrong as he was". It's not as if I predicted 22 wins and the team put up 10. I predicted 15-17 wins. This was my prediction based on a lot of things.

1.) I didn't expect Tucker's off the court problems to continue. He was Iowa's leading scorer when he first was suspended. Then he tried to return only to have the academic issues. The whole deal messed with team chemistry. Dynamics in basketball are extremely fluid.

2.) I didn't expect Aaron Fuller to be out for most of the non-conference and when he returned he wasn't 100% either.

3.) I didn't expect the offense to continue to be an issue to figure out. I thought year 3 would be long enough for everyone to grasp it.

4.) I didn't expect Iowa to be so bad inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

There are more, but these are some of the main things that I can remember from last year.

Was I wrong? Yep. I was.
How many times was I right last year on other basketball items, though?

The issue with predictions, is that it's pretty easy to rip on. I'm aware of that and I'll take the punches that are involved with it. That's fine.


The thing that still sticks out in my mind was the "_____ reasons Iowa will be better" article. I just never understood how anyone thought that last years team would be better than a team that lost Tate, Peterson, and Kelly. You don't get better with one pg and anyone who watched the Black and Gold Blowout could have told you Tucker had no chance at playing point against decent competition.
 
The thing that still sticks out in my mind was the "_____ reasons Iowa will be better" article. I just never understood how anyone thought that last years team would be better than a team that lost Tate, Peterson, and Kelly. You don't get better with one pg and anyone who watched the Black and Gold Blowout could have told you Tucker had no chance at playing point against decent competition.

The subject line was a bit misleading.
The articles were Iowa Basketball Will Be Better Than You Think.... the title was too long to run, so it had to go in the body of the story.

The main reasoning behind it was because a lot of people were down. Giving Iowa 6 or 7 wins on the year. I was targeting the fan base that thought the season was going to be a disaster. At the time, I thought I would we better than most people thought. I was not implying that the 09-10 season was going to be better than the 08-09 season. It was a set of articles attempting to convince some of the fanbase that Iowa won't be as bad as you think they will be.

I still thought Iowa would finish in the bottom 1/3 of the league. I didn't see 10 wins. That was a surprise. I thought they'd get the 15-17 I predicted. In retrospect, those predicting 6 or 7 were closer than me predicting 15-17. That does go back to the issues Iowa had last year that I was not expecting - hindsight is 50/50 though. Either I couldn't see the forest from the trees (which is very very possible) or Iowa underperformed. Probably a little bit of both.

EDIT - Now that I think about it. If I was predicting 15-17 wins, it would have been the same or more than the previous year. So you do have a point there. My bad.
 
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I will add this...

I sorely misjudge the chemistry of the team going into it last year. The players I talked to, the other media members, other articles all said after the trip overseas that it was a very close-knit group. As the season went on, that couldn't have been further from the truth. Cliches were formed, a lot of disagreement between players/coaches, etc... you can form your own ideas of what I am talking about. I won't go into details, but it was pretty bad there for a while. Tucker's dismissal really divided some and Iowa never recovered.

I did make a poor judgment on that part of the team, which (when you don't have a ton of talent) is very important on a college basketball team.
 
This is likely the right attitude...

I have no predictions other than this is a building process and it could be ugly before it gets better.

Right now our fan base needs to forget about the past and embrace our new coach and program direction. How can Fran recruit the players he needs going forward if there is a lack of support for the program in general?

I attended the game this past Sunday and the arena was half full (which was better than last year). It was disappointing to me one that the arena was half full and that a portion of the fans left with 5 minutes left in the game just to avoid post-game traffic.

I might be the only one that really enjoyed the game against SDSU and Fran's style of play. Yes I want to win but I respect the process and the tough work that is required to revitalize this program. There we stretches in the game that were really sloppy but there were stretches of fun, frenetic basketball. Despite a half full arena there were moments that many of us were on our feet and screaming. That was awesome and it can be that way again on a regular basis.

The kids played hard and I think there is a coach and players to rally around here.

Ask yourself this question.... What can I do to support this program? If you are too stuborn or ignorant to attend a game in support of the team then by all means try spreading positive encouragement to anyone you know that cares about Iowa basketball. Encourage them to encourage others and not get down by what does not go right. Creating a positive buzz is how we all can help Fran fill the roster with the players that are needed to play his system. It will work if we can get the players(we have some already) but it will never work if this fan base continues with this I won't support the program until it shows me something attitude.

Who is going to be a leader in our fan base?

this group is so far away from being really good that steps can only be measured incrementally. Yes, Iowa will get better at running the offense, knowing what to do, etc., but in the end that won't count for a whole lot in terms of wins this year. If we get breaks in close games I could see Iowa winning 12 games or even approaching 15. If we get injuries or academic casualties, that number moves lower in a hurry. The injury to Gatens already arguably cost Iowa one win. Louisiana-Monroe comes in with a a perimeter player who will be better than anyone we have (Fred Brown, former K-State guard) and if he is making shots we'll be strapped to beat them.

We could not defend SDSU on the perimeter. If we played them again, we'd have trouble defending them on the perimeter. And if we can't guard SDSU on the perimeter, wait until we face some teams that have some Big 10-caliber athletes. What does Iowa do to stop Michigan State, Illinois, OSU, Purdue, heck most any team in the Big 10, from getting any shot they want? Answer is not a whole lot.

The benefit of this year is the playing time that guys like Basabe, McCabe, Marble, and to some extent Payne and May, are getting. Then have them ALL return, add to them some more players and see if we can build on what was done this year. Lickliter never could get the program off the ground when the leading returning players were fleeing each year. The first year for McCaffery will be a success if all the key contributors from this season return for 2011-2012.

If I'm Fran, I'm looking high and wide yet in the 2011 class for an athletic big guy and I'll take a dynamic ball-handling guard if I can find one, either in JUCO or high school. I know Payne is just a sophomore and Cartwright is a junior, but this style demands guards who are better with the ball than what was shown against SDSU. If I'm a dynamic ball-handling guard, I can see some very good possibilities playing in Fran's system (Marcus Paige, your table is waiting). May, Marble, Basabe all can run the floor and finish, McCabe can shoot it (as can Oglesby and Aaron White). Need a maestro to bring it all together.
 
Baby steps people. The prediction is part of the process to better basketball in CHA. We know we aren't there yet (in terms of Big 10 champions, or Big 10 tourney champions, or even an NCAA invite, oh hell, even an NIT invite). All we've heard from Fran is that he wants kids that like to play the game like it's supposed to be played. We are young and hungry, and yes, you will occasionally have games like last Sunday because of the youth on our team, but the point is let's see what Iowa does in the beginning of the season compared to the end. Most of these kids are going to grow up real fast, and we might all be surpised. Look at the good that will come out of this experience. It's not going to generate 20 wins this year, but maybe 12-15, then next year maybe 15-17. Give it time...We knew the type of season we were all going to witness even before the season started. Maybe we should've recruited some of the kids from SDSU. They played well the other day, or at least good enough to win...I think the young Hawks will be fine (but with a few bumps and bruise along the way)....14 wins this year.....
 
OK, I am revising my projection downward. I had Iowa winning vs SDSt and getting 13 wins. Now? I will say we lose to ISU,UNI and Drake,all of which I had Iowa winning. I have to say we will probably not exceed 8 wins.
 

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