My Cy-Hawk Game Preview & Prediction

[mopkins]

For starters....I think Iowa wins this one, but I think the streak ends next year. It will be week 2 and Iowa will be breaking in a new QB, no AJ, and probably replacing 2 tackles and 2 Paulsen twins.

However, here are things that concern me this week:

1) Iowa state was a -3 to -4.5 favorite before the season started. Now Iowa is around a -2.5 favorite. So the spread swung almost a full touchdown just because Iowa State laid a week 1 egg against UNI? Its week 1, ISU lost both of their offensive threats, its an in-state game, etc. Weird shit happens (see Iowa vs UNI 2 blocked FG's)

2) This game is almost always fluky. All logic and rationality can be thrown right out the window.

3) Iowa's secondary not only has injuries but their cash position seems to be a huge question mark still. ISU actually DID throw the ball decently against UNI.

4) ISU coming off a bye week and was probably preparing for Iowa all offseason...overlooking UNI completely (hence the egg laying).

5) The hype is insane. This game will be more emotional and louder than any road game Iowa will play all year

6) Regardless of what the stats say I still have a lot of questions about Iowa's running game

7) Matt Campbell bends the bill of his hat waaaaaay too much.

 

[Zstatman]

I don't think the Clones will ever be as emotional as they were when Dan McCarney roamed the sideline in Ames.

 

[homes]

Picking ISU is a classic defense mechanism.

 

[westender]

Picking ISU is a classic defense mechanism.

If you lose you win and if you win you win.

 

[DBAHawkFan]

We will go as far as Stanley takes us.

If I'm ISU, stack the box and force Iowa to go over the top. You don't switch until it's proven he can do it multiple/consistent times.

ISU should look at the Miami game as a blueprint against Iowa's d. It takes a very accurate QB to make it work.

I want Iowa to win, and i hope it's a good game. Not the 6-3 disasters we've had to watch a few times.

 

[homes]

For starters....I think Iowa wins this one, but I think the streak ends next year. It will be week 2 and Iowa will be breaking in a new QB, no AJ, and probably replacing 2 tackles and 2 Paulsen twins.

However, here are things that concern me this week:

1) Iowa state was a -3 to -4.5 favorite before the season started. Now Iowa is around a -2.5 favorite. So the spread swung almost a full touchdown just because Iowa State laid a week 1 egg against UNI? Its week 1, ISU lost both of their offensive threats, its an in-state game, etc. Weird shit happens (see Iowa vs UNI 2 blocked FG's)

2) This game is almost always fluky. All logic and rationality can be thrown right out the window.

3) Iowa's secondary not only has injuries but their cash position seems to be a huge question mark still. ISU actually DID throw the ball decently against UNI.

4) ISU coming off a bye week and was probably preparing for Iowa all offseason...overlooking UNI completely (hence the egg laying).

5) The hype is insane. This game will be more emotional and louder than any road game Iowa will play all year

6) Regardless of what the stats say I still have a lot of questions about Iowa's running game

7) Matt Campbell bends the bill of his hat waaaaaay too much.

1. Probably a swing because Iowa has earned it, plus I never believed that first line either.
2. Not always fluky, at least not when the Hawks win. The Hawks have laid some big hurts on ISU over the Ferentz era. I will agree that ISU's wins are more often fluky.
3. This is a concern, if the DL can keep pressure on Purdy, he will make mistakes.
4. Haven't studied ISU after bye weeks. Possible, seems logical - it is their Super Bowl, after all.
5. Agree.
6. Disagree on this one. If the Hawks had focused on one back, he'd be averaging 125 yards. They haven't had many negative rushing plays this year.
7. That's because he's hiding this:

 

[SteveGarvey1]

If you lose you win and if you win you win.

I'm picking ISU to win but I don't see that as a win. I'm not going to be there like "hey look at me, I picked ISU to win". I'm hoping I'm way wrong and the Hawks win. It will suck if I'm right.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Haha classic!

That movie, famously written by Cameron Crowe as he attended a semester of high school undercover at the age of 22, was a coming out party for a ton of actors and actresses. The aforementioned Jefferson was played by Forest Whitaker who is still going strong today. Others included Sean Penn, Judge Reinhold, Phoebe Cates, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Anthony Edwards. Nicolas Cage, then known by his real name of Coppola, had a small uncredited role in the movie. Bill Paxton may have too.

 

[DBAHawkFan]

For starters....I think Iowa wins this one, but I think the streak ends next year. It will be week 2 and Iowa will be breaking in a new QB, no AJ, and probably replacing 2 tackles and 2 Paulsen twins.

However, here are things that concern me this week:

1) Iowa state was a -3 to -4.5 favorite before the season started. Now Iowa is around a -2.5 favorite. So the spread swung almost a full touchdown just because Iowa State laid a week 1 egg against UNI? Its week 1, ISU lost both of their offensive threats, its an in-state game, etc. Weird shit happens (see Iowa vs UNI 2 blocked FG's)

2) This game is almost always fluky. All logic and rationality can be thrown right out the window.

3) Iowa's secondary not only has injuries but their cash position seems to be a huge question mark still. ISU actually DID throw the ball decently against UNI.

4) ISU coming off a bye week and was probably preparing for Iowa all offseason...overlooking UNI completely (hence the egg laying).

5) The hype is insane. This game will be more emotional and louder than any road game Iowa will play all year

6) Regardless of what the stats say I still have a lot of questions about Iowa's running game

7) Matt Campbell bends the bill of his hat waaaaaay too much.

I still have doubts about Iowa's offense. Goodson gives us the big play threat from the ground, but does anyone really see him being in the game before the 2nd half?

Last week against Rutgers, there was a long stretch where Iowa couldn't get out of their endzone and had Rutgers been even close to competent in the QB play, the game could have been a lot different. Their QB was overthrowing his WR by 15 yards. I can't really see a QB having that bad of a day again, especially in this game

Stanley seems to fold under pressure, and this game is going to be pressure packed. If Iowa doesn't get TO, or have sustained drives to settle him down, it could shut down the offense the entire game

 

[homes]

I still have doubts about Iowa's offense. Goodson gives us the big play threat from the ground, but does anyone really see him being in the game before the 2nd half?

Last week against Rutgers, there was a long stretch where Iowa couldn't get out of their endzone and had Rutgers been even close to competent in the QB play, the game could have been a lot different. Their QB was overthrowing his WR by 15 yards. I can't really see a QB having that bad of a day again, especially in this game

Stanley seems to fold under pressure, and this game is going to be pressure packed. If Iowa doesn't get TO, or have sustained drives to settle him down, it could shut down the offense the entire game

Not always. At ISU in 2017.

 

[guffus]

"Iowa is making its sixth appearance on College GameDay. Iowa is 1-6 on GameDay"

Ok, one of those stats has to be wrong. Either this is Iowa's eighth appearance on GameDay, or else Iowa is 1-4 on GameDay.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Stanley has beaten ISU twice. Once in Lames. Not saying he is the greatest gamer I have ever seen at QB, but I would not say he folds in big games. He beat Ohio State convincingly. Walked into Lincoln and killed Nebbie. He faced down and won against a great Miss State defense.

Has he laid eggs? Sure. Is he as consistent as we like? No. But, I like our chances of Nate having a strong game on Saturday, Would rather have our QB than theirs for sure.

 

[uihawk82]

It seems it always helps Stanley to get into a successful rhythm early. If he struggles then it sort of stays that way.

But I have thought he is a gamer most of the time. His results in Ames in 2017 were great.

ISU had a hard time moving the ball on Iowa last year and a home field isnt going to help them

 

[hawkinn3]

Hate this prediction. The whole “throw out the records in a rivalry game” is bs, it’s not true and people use anecdotal evidence to back it up. The best team wins “rivalry” games at the same rate as all games.

The clowns have no offense and lost their best players from last year.

I don’t buy that Purdy having an undefined “it” and a slightly above average nose tackle equal them being competitive.

Iowa wins by 2 TDs. This isn’t Rudy, the better team will win.

 

[Chickenlounge]

"Iowa is making its sixth appearance on College GameDay. Iowa is 1-6 on GameDay"

Ok, one of those stats has to be wrong. Either this is Iowa's eighth appearance on GameDay, or else Iowa is 1-4 on GameDay.

 

[mopkins]

Hate this prediction. The whole “throw out the records in a rivalry game” is bs, it’s not true and people use anecdotal evidence to back it up. The best team wins “rivalry” games at the same rate as all games.

The clowns have no offense and lost their best players from last year.

I don’t buy that Purdy having an undefined “it” and a slightly above average nose tackle equal them being competitive.

Iowa wins by 2 TDs. This isn’t Rudy, the better team will win.

I do think Purdy is massively overrated. His stats were inflated by a Big 12 conference that hardly plays defense. Texas completely shut him down. He did nothing against Drake. He had 2 picks in their bowl game.

The one area I think Purdy could be dangerous on Saturday is him keeping the ball on RPO's. I watched the entire UNI game and it was open for him all game but he never took it one single time....0 rushes, 2 sacks. My only explanation is that Campbell told him not to keep the ball on RPO's vs UNI or he had a minor injury because running is definitely part of his game

 

[mopkins]

6. Disagree on this one. If the Hawks had focused on one back, he'd be averaging 125 yards. They haven't had many negative rushing plays this year.
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I guess I just mean early in the games. I know Iowa intentionally wears out teams and bends them to their will...and that takes time, but...

1st quarter runs vs Rutgers:
Sargent for 4 yards
Sargent for 2 yards
Toren for 1 yard
Sargent for 2 yards
Toren for 3 yards
Sargent for 0 yards
Sargent for -4 yards

7 rushes for 8 yards....

After that weak first quarter it opened up more. However Rutgers defense isn't ISU.

 

[94HawkMA]

Breakdown, TV, Players to Watch, Gambling Angles, Keys to Victory, Game Notes:

LINK

Nice work Rob! Is Tyler L a true freshman or a redshirt?

 

[94HawkMA]

ISU is due for a win in this series.

Then again, you could have said that for over a decade in the eighties and nineties.

Then again ISU was coached by a series of morons until Danny Mac arrived.

Iowa must turn the clones over two or three times to win this. I agree with posters saying that you can throw UNI out the window, just like Iowa UNI in 2009. I once saw Michigan State crap the bed for an entire preseason, come into Iowa City as eighteen point underdogs, and give #1 ranked Iowa all they could handle.

Another key to an Iowa win could be turning the Cyclone players emotion against them. I could see a couple overly amped Clones getting a foolish penalty or targeting penalty. Ferentz teams are usually pretty good at playing through this, getting the game settled down, and grinding out a win.

If Iowa State is distracted by the Gameday hype and tries to bully Iowa, as they have tried to in the past, Iowa will win big.

 

[JG10Hawk]

Iowa's Gameday appearances per wikipedia:

• 1995 - November 11: Iowa at #5 Northwestern in Evanston, Illinois, Northwestern 31–20
• 1996 - October 26: #2 Ohio State at #20 Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa, Ohio State 38–26
  
• 1997 - October 4: #8 Iowa at #7 Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio, Ohio State 23–7
  
• 2006 - September 30: #1 Ohio State at #13 Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa, Ohio State 38–17
  
• 2009 - September 26: Iowa at #4 Penn State in University Park, Pennsylvania, Iowa 21–10
• 2015 - December 5: #5 Michigan State vs. #4 Iowa (Big Ten Championship) in Indianapolis, Indiana, Michigan State 16–13
• 2015 - January 1, 2016: #5 Stanford vs. #6 Iowa (Rose Bowl) in Pasadena, California, Stanford 45–16
• 2019 - September 14: #19 Iowa at Iowa State in Ames, Iowa

That's 1- 6 all time through 7 appearances. Saturday will be the 8th. Kinnick has hosted twice, so it will be Iowa's 6th time playing in the game away from Iowa City.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_GameDay_(football_TV_program)