JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Big Ten Bowl Picture | Hawkeye Nation
My thoughts below are based upon how I expect the teams being discussed to finish the rest of this Big Ten season:
ROSE: Wisconsin (11-1/7-1) win out
BCS at Large: Ohio State (11-1/7-1) win out
Cap One: Michigan State (10-2/6-2) loss to Penn State
Here’s where things get a little dicey
Outback: Will this be Joe Paterno’s last year? If it is, will they make that known in the next two weeks or so? IF that were to happen, I think the Outback would take a Penn State team I peg to finish 8-4 overall. If not, if it’s vague, the Outback could take Iowa, who I am pegging to finish 8-4 right now. This is an unknown on an unknown. Penn State has not played in the Outback since 2006 and Iowa has been there three times since 2003. Where the Cap One has made picks more closely related to the Big Ten standings and head to head action, the Outback has not been so predictable.
They took 7-4 Iowa in 2005 over a 7-4 Michigan team which beat Iowa on the field, because Michigan has not traditionally traveled well to non-BCS bowl games…or at least, they felt Iowa would travel better. They took Michigan over Iowa back in the 1990′s, too.
Penn State didn’t enter this season with BCS bowl aspirations and Iowa did. Which fan base would travel better to the Outback? Penn State travels real well, one of the ten best in college football, along with Iowa. I think there may be too many factors working against Iowa for this particular bowl game if both teams finish 8-4, so I will go with
OUTBACK: Penn State (8-4/4-4)
Now we get to the Gator Bowl. I have Iowa hypothetically at 8-4 and Michigan losing its next two games to finish 7-5. Michigan hasn’t been to the Gator since 1991 with Iowa’s lone Gator Bowl appearance in 1983. Michigan hasn’t been to a bowl game since the end of the 2007 season. Again, the Iowa fan base might be viewed as being disappointed with an 8-4 season based on preseason expectations, even though the Gator Bowl is new territory for them. I think Iowa would travel well to this game, but I just don’t have any idea of ‘how well’. Would Michigan travel just as well? If that is a question the Gator officials can’t definitively answer one way or another, they may go with the Wolverines due to the better TV draw.
Bowl games are about economic impact to the community, and TV ratings for the sponsor factor into the equation but it’s not THE driving factor. Konica Minolta is the title sponsor this year, but they have no title sponsor set up for next year at this time. This could prove to be a key factor as they will want to secure a title sponsor going forward and the sponsor is far more concerned with TV ratings than local economic impact. So if I had to wager right now, I would say:
GATOR BOWL: Michigan (7-5/3-5)
I am not aware of any clause that would prevent them from taking Michigan over an Iowa team that has a better record. If there is, then of course that would affect this pick.
Which leaves Iowa for..
INSIGHT BOWL: Iowa (8-4/5-3)
Now, should Iowa finish 9-3 with a win over Ohio State, I think that could drop the Big Ten down to just one BCS team, although Ohio State and Michigan State would be available in the at large pool. If that would happen, I think Iowa would not land in the Gator. We’ll talk more about these prospects after next week’s action
NOTE: I am trying to find info on whether the Gator could take a Big Ten team with -2 wins, ie 3-5 Michigan over 5-3 Iowa. I know the Cap One has such a rule, but the Outback does not.
My thoughts below are based upon how I expect the teams being discussed to finish the rest of this Big Ten season:
ROSE: Wisconsin (11-1/7-1) win out
BCS at Large: Ohio State (11-1/7-1) win out
Cap One: Michigan State (10-2/6-2) loss to Penn State
Here’s where things get a little dicey
Outback: Will this be Joe Paterno’s last year? If it is, will they make that known in the next two weeks or so? IF that were to happen, I think the Outback would take a Penn State team I peg to finish 8-4 overall. If not, if it’s vague, the Outback could take Iowa, who I am pegging to finish 8-4 right now. This is an unknown on an unknown. Penn State has not played in the Outback since 2006 and Iowa has been there three times since 2003. Where the Cap One has made picks more closely related to the Big Ten standings and head to head action, the Outback has not been so predictable.
They took 7-4 Iowa in 2005 over a 7-4 Michigan team which beat Iowa on the field, because Michigan has not traditionally traveled well to non-BCS bowl games…or at least, they felt Iowa would travel better. They took Michigan over Iowa back in the 1990′s, too.
Penn State didn’t enter this season with BCS bowl aspirations and Iowa did. Which fan base would travel better to the Outback? Penn State travels real well, one of the ten best in college football, along with Iowa. I think there may be too many factors working against Iowa for this particular bowl game if both teams finish 8-4, so I will go with
OUTBACK: Penn State (8-4/4-4)
Now we get to the Gator Bowl. I have Iowa hypothetically at 8-4 and Michigan losing its next two games to finish 7-5. Michigan hasn’t been to the Gator since 1991 with Iowa’s lone Gator Bowl appearance in 1983. Michigan hasn’t been to a bowl game since the end of the 2007 season. Again, the Iowa fan base might be viewed as being disappointed with an 8-4 season based on preseason expectations, even though the Gator Bowl is new territory for them. I think Iowa would travel well to this game, but I just don’t have any idea of ‘how well’. Would Michigan travel just as well? If that is a question the Gator officials can’t definitively answer one way or another, they may go with the Wolverines due to the better TV draw.
Bowl games are about economic impact to the community, and TV ratings for the sponsor factor into the equation but it’s not THE driving factor. Konica Minolta is the title sponsor this year, but they have no title sponsor set up for next year at this time. This could prove to be a key factor as they will want to secure a title sponsor going forward and the sponsor is far more concerned with TV ratings than local economic impact. So if I had to wager right now, I would say:
GATOR BOWL: Michigan (7-5/3-5)
I am not aware of any clause that would prevent them from taking Michigan over an Iowa team that has a better record. If there is, then of course that would affect this pick.
Which leaves Iowa for..
INSIGHT BOWL: Iowa (8-4/5-3)
Now, should Iowa finish 9-3 with a win over Ohio State, I think that could drop the Big Ten down to just one BCS team, although Ohio State and Michigan State would be available in the at large pool. If that would happen, I think Iowa would not land in the Gator. We’ll talk more about these prospects after next week’s action
NOTE: I am trying to find info on whether the Gator could take a Big Ten team with -2 wins, ie 3-5 Michigan over 5-3 Iowa. I know the Cap One has such a rule, but the Outback does not.
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