My 2018 W-L Prediction thread

[Stanzi]

N. IL W
Iowa St. W
No. Iowa W
Wisconsin L
@Minnesota W
@Indiana W
Maryland W
@PSU L
@Purdue W
NW W
@ILL W
Nebraska W

I really see us going 10-2 with the possible swap of one of the games I listed as a W being a L, and one of the L's being a W. I think Wisconsin at home is more likely than Penn State on the road. You people predicting 6-6 are being overly pessimistic in my opinion. This team has a lot of young talent. I also don't think the offense can be any worse (of course, I also felt that way this past season so who knows).

 

[guffus]

Odds of winning each game / running total of wins

N. IL 90% 0.9
Iowa St. 65% 1.55
No. Iowa 95% 2.5
Wisconsin 50% 3.0
@Minnesota 70% 3.7
@Indiana 70% 4.4
Maryland 70% 5.1
@PSU 30% 5.4
@Purdue 60% 6.0
NW 70% 6.7
@ILL 80% 7.5
Nebraska 70% 8.2
Bowl game 50% 8.7

Final record 9-4, 6-3 in Big Ten

 

[hawkeyebob62]

15-O, beat an $EC team in CFP CG, Stanley and Fant have first Heisman tie in history, Paulsen brothers split the Outland, Nelson "brothers" split the Nagurski, but The Wave doesn't win "Spirit Award" when four fans in NW corner duck out during it to hit the bathroom for all to see on live TV.

 

[Fryowa]

15-O, beat an $EC team in CFP CG, Stanley and Fant have first Heisman tie in history, Paulsen brothers split the Outland, Nelson "brothers" split the Nagurski, but The Wave doesn't win "Spirit Award" when four fans in NW corner duck out during it to hit the bathroom for all to see on live TV.

This is dumber than the stuff your “syndicate” posts.

At least we’re funny.

 

[KCHawkeye]

Barta of no Barta.. KF will leave on his terms..

Unfortunately. this is true.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

This is dumber than the stuff your “syndicate” posts.

At least we’re funny.

First, you aren't even IN The Syndicate. Second, you may be funny...just not "ha ha" funny (credit Ralphie Wiggum on The Simpsons)

 

[LonestarHawk]

All depends upon next years offensive scheme. I see three likely scenarios:

1). Assuming Iowa attempts a more pass-oriented offense and achieves a pass completion rate of 64% or more - 10/2. (31 avg ppg)

2). Assuming Iowa attempts a more pass-oriented offense and achieves a pass completion rate less than 64% - 7/5. (22 avg ppg)

3). Assuming Iowa depends more on the run - 9/3. (26 avg ppg)

Most of this rests of the quality of the new OL starters and how they gel as a unit. My gut says we aim for #1 but fall back to #3 in the BTN. Therefore 9-3.

 

[AreWeThereYet]

8-5 Losses against Wisconsin and Northwestern. There will be one team on the rest of the schedule that will have an unexpected up year, and Iowa will dump one to a lesser opponent. Bowl loss to SEC or PAC-12 team in Outback, Holiday, or Music City

Good chance the offensive line will be at least average (Iowa average). Much improved at OT, but still weak in the middle. Replacing all three starting linebacker positions usually means a down year for defense. Defensive line, tight end, quarterback, and running back are strengths. Punter and receivers are somewhat improved.

The biggest issue is they have to replace key players, and have question marks in a large number of places at once. I would expect progress in most areas but chances are we are going to come up short somewhere, or the injury bug bites and there isn't an adequate replacement. Concerned about the interior of the offensive line under preforming coming into the season, or the defensive back seven being untested and lacking depth for the long haul.

An improved record this year will depend on the offense. They won't be able to lean as heavily on the defense as they have this year.

 

[uihawk82]

All depends upon next years offensive scheme. I see three likely scenarios:

1). Assuming Iowa attempts a more pass-oriented offense and achieves a pass completion rate of 64% or more - 10/2. (31 avg ppg)

2). Assuming Iowa attempts a more pass-oriented offense and achieves a pass completion rate less than 64% - 7/5. (22 avg ppg)

3). Assuming Iowa depends more on the run - 9/3. (26 avg ppg)

Most of this rests of the quality of the new OL starters and how they gel as a unit. My gut says we aim for #1 but fall back to #3 in the BTN. Therefore 9-3.

Iowa averaged 27+ pts per game this iirc so I could see you adding about 6 points to each of your point guesses,

 

[LonestarHawk]

Iowa averaged 27+ pts per game this iirc so I could see you adding about 6 points to each of your point guesses,

I had 26 as the 2017 season avg. My Option 3 assumed a similar offensive scheme and production and a more favorable schedule to get to 9-3.

My main takeaway is that a more passing-based offense (if successful), provides us with the greatest upside for wins. However, OL performance is the key. Pre-season shouldn’t be an issue. BTN maybe a different issue but possible due to a more favorable schedule.

 

[blubberhawk]

I know our schedule gets easier than last year, but with the loss of this many players I don't feel we are in a position to win more than 7 game this fall. Our offensive line will be worse, which is hard to fathom. I wasn't impressed with Keegan Render at all in 2017. It is too much to lose Welsh and Daniels to see any improvement here. I thought we had something with the Paulsen twins when they signed 3 years ago. Must not.

We've been hoping for some breakout WR's since Nile Kinnick, DJK & McNutt would have been long forgotten at fO$U or Michigan. If a guy with physical size of Brandon Smith doesn't break every Iowa receiving record, I am never going to have any hope that his staff can develop or even utilize a WR.

TE; If Fant can catch passes in clutch games (see jNW) we have arguably the best TE combo in the nation.

Stanley, guy has worlds of upswing. Might be the best passer if used right in the KF era. He needs time to throw, or we need to throw about 50 screen passes a game.

On the defensive side of the ball, we can't be better at LB even though Bo Bower was horrid his entire career. Jewell, that guy was a guy you wanted in your foxhole with you; an animal.

DB, unlikely we have another Josh Jackson stuffed away somewhere. Ojemudia was worked over in a few games. Safety should be better. I think Snyder is too slow for safety after watching the National Title game; maybe he should play WLB.

Our front 4 should only be better. If Anthony Nelson can keep up production, Matt add some pounds and if KF can get around the fact that Eppy has more upside than Parker Hesse we should see Eppy out there more. D. Nixon should help anchor the middle with his Jaleel Johnson type stature.

Punter; no need to explain anything here.

N. IL W
Iowa St. L (were due for a 2005-esque Iowa State performance)
No. Iowa W
Wisconsin L (because this isn't going to just change)
Minnesota W (it will be close)
Indiana L
Maryland L
PSU L
Purdue L (at this point this forum is going to be on total meltdown and Kirk's road paving issues are going to look like a hang nail)
jNW W
ILL W (Lovie Smith is fired after the game)
Nebraska W

I see 2019 as an improvement over 6-6.

My God. We have sunk so low that we have Hawkeye fans predicting a home loss to ISU? How fricking pathetic.
They suck, they have always sucked, and they always will suck. Some of you Hawk fans are worse than ISU fans. They have one mediocre season every 10 years or so and whoever happens to be coaching them at the time is annointed as the greatest coach of all time. Seems some of you have bought into that crap. Back to normal for the clowns next year. 3-9. Iowa puts one on them at Kinnick. 42-3.

 

[NCHawker]

The west looks like this

Wisconsin - strong and trending up
Nebraska - will be better
Minnesota- will be better
Purdue - will be better
jNW - always tough
iowa - same old same old

I think, unless something big needs to happen or iowa will be left behind. If Iowa stays where they are, they'll be looking at 5th or 6th place very soon.


Should I be excited?

Should fans show up and buy season tickets to see more 7-5 football?

 

[guffus]

The west looks like this

Wisconsin - strong and trending up
Nebraska - will be better
Minnesota- will be better
Purdue - will be better
jNW - always tough
iowa - same old same old

I think, unless something big needs to happen or iowa will be left behind. If Iowa stays where they are, they'll be looking at 5th or 6th place very soon.


Should I be excited?

Should fans show up and buy season tickets to see more 7-5 football?

Well, at least it looks like you are counting on Illinois still sucking next year.

 

[Ben Rumson]

2017 I really thought 9-3 not counting the bowl game.So for 2018 I'll reign back my high expectations and go 6-6. That way anything more will be frosting on the cake and I'll not feel let down by an overarching 7-5.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

I think @ Purdue, @Minnesota, the Clowns and Nebraska are games that will make the diff. We all know the KFz/ISU equation. Purdue isn't going away. MInnesota will be improved and no doubt have our game circled on the schedule, and by November Frost may have his team playing well. Gotta have all of those to get 8+ wins.

 

[Fryowa]

The west looks like this

Wisconsin - strong and trending up
Nebraska - will be better
Minnesota- will be better
Purdue - will be better
jNW - always tough
iowa - same old same old

I think, unless something big needs to happen or iowa will be left behind. If Iowa stays where they are, they'll be looking at 5th or 6th place very soon.


Should I be excited?

Should fans show up and buy season tickets to see more 7-5 football?

Those games you listed will all probably be losses except Nebraska, add in PSU and a fluke drop to Maryland or ISU (Kirk always drops at least one or more in which the Hawks are favored), and we’re at 6-6.

 

[cincyhawk]

Northern Illinois --- W
ISU --- L
UNI --- W
Wisconsin --- L
Minnesota --- L
Indiana --- W
Maryland --- W
PSU --- L
Purdue --- L
NW --- L
ILL --- W
Nebraska --- W

6-6, lose in the Greater Snohomish County Goat Breeders Bowl presented by Dale's Transmission, against the Upper Central Northeastern Idaho State-(Pocatello Campus) Bluebirds.

The streak against ISU isn't sustainable, and the Minnesota/Indiana/Maryland games are toss-ups but we lose 2/3.

People are underestimating losing Jewell, Niemann, Bazata, Jackson, Wadley, and Daniels all in the same year. Four will be NFL starters at some point, and Niemann & Bazata both have a better than average shot at becoming UDFA's. Fart rainbows and tell me I'm crazy if you want, but this team will not be above .500. I hope I'm wrong.

I'm with you, but thunk they'll lose to Maryland too. This offense was bad with Wadley and Daniels, it's going to get far worse without them.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

I'm just not really understanding the negativity here. I think you can point to a few things that most of us can agree on.

Offense
1) Two freshman offensive tackles are going to be better. When have we ever had two 320 offensive tackles who can move like these two?
2) You have people who have played B10 football to replace Daniels and Welch. There are at least three guys that played significant time last year. That's positive. Growing pains obviously with the center.
3) Nate Stanley has the chance to be special. He just needs to be more consistent...but last year was pretty sweet for a first year starter. We he had time in the pocket, he was accurate...when he felt pressure...not so much. The good thing is that he will handle pressure better with the experience.
4) TEs - maybe the best tandem in the country. Seriously...and we have 3 or 4 good ones.
5) Toren Young and IKM...thunder and lightening. Very, very solid.
6) We have a possession receiver who can play...Easely. That's all I got right now there.

Defense
1) The defensive line has the potential to be scary. Experience and youth...and a few monsters. Nixon was a huge get. AJ spreads his wings...Anthony Nelson is big and fast.
2) The secondary has options and some young talent. We are finally getting athletes at Safety.
3) Can we find three LBs that can play? The only question.

Losing the three LBs is a killer, but it's a lot better being inexperienced when you are great upfront. We have a chance to be great upfront.

There are alot fewer holes this year than last that's for damn sure. Remember...oh losing a lock down corner will kill our secondary (King)...up steps Jackson.

We will be a much better football team...now we have to see if the record is better.

 

[Pink Bathroom]

Odds of winning each game / running total of wins

N. IL 90% 0.9
Iowa St. 65% 1.55
No. Iowa 95% 2.5
Wisconsin 50% 3.0
@Minnesota 70% 3.7
@Indiana 70% 4.4
Maryland 70% 5.1
@PSU 30% 5.4
@Purdue 60% 6.0
NW 70% 6.7
@ILL 80% 7.5
Nebraska 70% 8.2
Bowl game 50% 8.7

Final record 9-4, 6-3 in Big Ten

I really like how you applied the odds instead of just saying a W or L. The only ones I would change would be Wisconsin to a 40% chance and the bowl game to 30% chance.

 

[Undefeated]

I'm just not really understanding the negativity here. I think you can point to a few things that most of us can agree on.

Offense
1) Two freshman offensive tackles are going to be better. When have we ever had two 320 offensive tackles who can move like these two?
2) You have people who have played B10 football to replace Daniels and Welch. There are at least three guys that played significant time last year. That's positive. Growing pains obviously with the center.
3) Nate Stanley has the chance to be special. He just needs to be more consistent...but last year was pretty sweet for a first year starter. We he had time in the pocket, he was accurate...when he felt pressure...not so much. The good thing is that he will handle pressure better with the experience.
4) TEs - maybe the best tandem in the country. Seriously...and we have 3 or 4 good ones.
5) Toren Young and IKM...thunder and lightening. Very, very solid.
6) We have a possession receiver who can play...Easely. That's all I got right now there.

Defense
1) The defensive line has the potential to be scary. Experience and youth...and a few monsters. Nixon was a huge get. AJ spreads his wings...Anthony Nelson is big and fast.
2) The secondary has options and some young talent. We are finally getting athletes at Safety.
3) Can we find three LBs that can play? The only question.

Losing the three LBs is a killer, but it's a lot better being inexperienced when you are great upfront. We have a chance to be great upfront.

There are alot fewer holes this year than last that's for damn sure. Remember...oh losing a lock down corner will kill our secondary (King)...up steps Jackson.

We will be a much better football team...now we have to see if the record is better.

AJ won’t play anymore than he did this year. Should have red shirted him last year because KF must really have a stiff one for Hesse. So basically we are going to piss away two years with Eppy and then he will declare after his junior year.