JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Before the basketball season began, I wrote about how Iowa's Big Ten schedule was about as good as one could have hoped for related to the teams the Hawks play just one time.
Those teams (and their rankings prior to this weekend) are #5 Ohio State, #6 Michigan State, #13 Michigan and Illinois. *As of Sunday afternoon at 2:45p, those teams had a combined ranking of 59-13 and are four of the five best teams in the Big Ten, along with Indiana. Iowa has already played three of those teams, with the one-off game against*Illinois*coming later in the season.
We also knew that Iowa's schedule to start Big Ten conference play might have been the most challenging seven-game stretch any Big Ten team would play this year. *However, the Hawkeyes are off to a shocking 3-3 start with the final piece of that stretch to come Tuesday night at Purdue, a team Iowa nearly beat to start the Big Ten season and a team that lost by 20 at Penn State and by five at home to Wisconsin.
The odds suggest Iowa will fall to Purdue and sit at 3-4. *If you would have offered me a 3-4 record to start Big Ten play back in late December before the conference season began, I would have taken it in a heartbeat. *No debate, no consideration. *I didn't think this year's Iowa team could win three of its first seven games, not with road trips to Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan State sandwiched around home games against a Final Four caliber team in Ohio State and a Sweet 16 caliber team in Michigan.
Iowa now sits at 11-8. *The 11 wins matches last year's win total for the season, so Fran McCaffery will continue his track record of producing far better results in year two than what he had in year one at every one of his coaching stops. *When he was hired, we knew from his resume that he was a program rebuilder. *He took what he was given, which in nearly every instance was not a good situation, and has turned it into an NCAA qualifier.
This year's team is much better than last year's team and this year's team is much better than the Iowa team of late November and early December. *It helps to have a healthy Bryce Cartwright in the mix, but it also helps that there are multiple scoring options on this team which has lessened the burden on Matt Gatens. *In turn, Gatens is playing the best basketball of his career and it's not up for debate.
We're also seeing the potential of Zach McCabe, who creates mismatch problems with opposing four's due to his ball skills and sneaky quick first step. *We're seeing great results from Aaron White, a true freshman who is Iowa's third leading scorer and one of its better rebounders. *We know that Melsahn Basabe is capable of a lot more than we have seen, namely in the consistency department. *We've seen the maturation and evolution of Devyn Marble into someone that can not just give Iowa point guard minutes, but is excelling with the ball in his hand.
That last piece might be the most important factor for this program and may make Marble one of the most*significant*recruiting finds for this program of the last decade.
Iowa will bring in Mike Gesell next year and he'll play some point guard minutes. *But with Marble's solid play at the point, Gesell won't have to shoulder that load alone. *He'll get to come off the bench and also play some two guard. *He'll get the time to make some mistakes and learn on the job without the pressure of being the lone solider with the ball in his hand.
In my opinion, the evolution of Marble as a point guard means that this team doesn't have a glass ceiling next year as it relates to the post season.
Prior to the start of this year, I felt that Iowa was probably two years away from a legitimate shot at the NCAA tournament. *If I had to wager, I'd still say the 2014 NCAA tournament is more likely than the 2013 NCAA tournament, but I am not longer 'resigning' myself to that notion.
I want to stop there, because we'll have plenty of time to talk about that this off season and I never intended to go down such a road with this piece...back to the schedule.
Iowa plays at Purdue on Tuesday and then has a nine-day break in the action; it will host Nebraska on January 26th. *Coaches love that bye week, because it allows them to do some actual in-season teaching, a rarity once the conference season begins. *This could be the perfect time for Basabe to get an 'effort adjustment'. *It will be a nice 'break' for the younger players like White and Josh Oglesby. *It will be more time for Cartwright to continue to round out his game and totally shake the hamstring fatigue.
I think Iowa will lose to Purdue and beat Nebraska, putting them at .500 late in the night on January 26th, a place they probably haven't been in six years. *After that, he's what the final ten games look like:
-at Indiana: That's a tough out with the way the Hoosiers are playing. 4-5
-Minnesota: Hawks have already won in The Barn. 5-5
-Penn State: Have to beat a team like this on your home court. 6-5, over .500 in February?
-at Northwestern: This has not been a kind venue for Iowa
-at Penn State: Split this road trip to get to 7-6
-Indiana
-Wisconsin: Another split? 8-7
-at Illinois: two wins at The Hall since 1987
-at Nebraska
-Northwestern: 1-2 over that stretch
That would put Iowa at 9-9 for the Big Ten regular season and 17-14 for the year. That might be good enough for the 6th seed in the Big Ten tournament, which would be the best seed draw they could get outside of a Top Four seed and a first round bye. It would also be amazing progress. 7-11 in the Big would be great progress, as would 8-10. 9-9 would be more than any reasonable basketball mind would have projected in this year's Big Ten, a year where eight teams may make the NCAA tournament.
If the Hawks can manage just five more wins before the end of the season, which would mean a 5-7 record down the stretch, it would mean a guaranteed .500 or better season.
I think they'll get that done, at the least and it will mean Iowa will get an invitation to one of the post season tournaments. If they can get to 17-14 and then win the opening round game in the Big Ten tournament, it could put them in contention for the NIT but that tournament has been more selective in recent years.
At any rate, I'll take any post season invitation because it will mean the Hawkeye program is heading in the right direction. Couple that with best recruiting class in a decade and fan interest at a five year high and things are looking up for the Iowa cagers.
Those teams (and their rankings prior to this weekend) are #5 Ohio State, #6 Michigan State, #13 Michigan and Illinois. *As of Sunday afternoon at 2:45p, those teams had a combined ranking of 59-13 and are four of the five best teams in the Big Ten, along with Indiana. Iowa has already played three of those teams, with the one-off game against*Illinois*coming later in the season.
We also knew that Iowa's schedule to start Big Ten conference play might have been the most challenging seven-game stretch any Big Ten team would play this year. *However, the Hawkeyes are off to a shocking 3-3 start with the final piece of that stretch to come Tuesday night at Purdue, a team Iowa nearly beat to start the Big Ten season and a team that lost by 20 at Penn State and by five at home to Wisconsin.
The odds suggest Iowa will fall to Purdue and sit at 3-4. *If you would have offered me a 3-4 record to start Big Ten play back in late December before the conference season began, I would have taken it in a heartbeat. *No debate, no consideration. *I didn't think this year's Iowa team could win three of its first seven games, not with road trips to Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan State sandwiched around home games against a Final Four caliber team in Ohio State and a Sweet 16 caliber team in Michigan.
Iowa now sits at 11-8. *The 11 wins matches last year's win total for the season, so Fran McCaffery will continue his track record of producing far better results in year two than what he had in year one at every one of his coaching stops. *When he was hired, we knew from his resume that he was a program rebuilder. *He took what he was given, which in nearly every instance was not a good situation, and has turned it into an NCAA qualifier.
This year's team is much better than last year's team and this year's team is much better than the Iowa team of late November and early December. *It helps to have a healthy Bryce Cartwright in the mix, but it also helps that there are multiple scoring options on this team which has lessened the burden on Matt Gatens. *In turn, Gatens is playing the best basketball of his career and it's not up for debate.
We're also seeing the potential of Zach McCabe, who creates mismatch problems with opposing four's due to his ball skills and sneaky quick first step. *We're seeing great results from Aaron White, a true freshman who is Iowa's third leading scorer and one of its better rebounders. *We know that Melsahn Basabe is capable of a lot more than we have seen, namely in the consistency department. *We've seen the maturation and evolution of Devyn Marble into someone that can not just give Iowa point guard minutes, but is excelling with the ball in his hand.
That last piece might be the most important factor for this program and may make Marble one of the most*significant*recruiting finds for this program of the last decade.
Iowa will bring in Mike Gesell next year and he'll play some point guard minutes. *But with Marble's solid play at the point, Gesell won't have to shoulder that load alone. *He'll get to come off the bench and also play some two guard. *He'll get the time to make some mistakes and learn on the job without the pressure of being the lone solider with the ball in his hand.
In my opinion, the evolution of Marble as a point guard means that this team doesn't have a glass ceiling next year as it relates to the post season.
Prior to the start of this year, I felt that Iowa was probably two years away from a legitimate shot at the NCAA tournament. *If I had to wager, I'd still say the 2014 NCAA tournament is more likely than the 2013 NCAA tournament, but I am not longer 'resigning' myself to that notion.
I want to stop there, because we'll have plenty of time to talk about that this off season and I never intended to go down such a road with this piece...back to the schedule.
Iowa plays at Purdue on Tuesday and then has a nine-day break in the action; it will host Nebraska on January 26th. *Coaches love that bye week, because it allows them to do some actual in-season teaching, a rarity once the conference season begins. *This could be the perfect time for Basabe to get an 'effort adjustment'. *It will be a nice 'break' for the younger players like White and Josh Oglesby. *It will be more time for Cartwright to continue to round out his game and totally shake the hamstring fatigue.
I think Iowa will lose to Purdue and beat Nebraska, putting them at .500 late in the night on January 26th, a place they probably haven't been in six years. *After that, he's what the final ten games look like:
-at Indiana: That's a tough out with the way the Hoosiers are playing. 4-5
-Minnesota: Hawks have already won in The Barn. 5-5
-Penn State: Have to beat a team like this on your home court. 6-5, over .500 in February?
-at Northwestern: This has not been a kind venue for Iowa
-at Penn State: Split this road trip to get to 7-6
-Indiana
-Wisconsin: Another split? 8-7
-at Illinois: two wins at The Hall since 1987
-at Nebraska
-Northwestern: 1-2 over that stretch
That would put Iowa at 9-9 for the Big Ten regular season and 17-14 for the year. That might be good enough for the 6th seed in the Big Ten tournament, which would be the best seed draw they could get outside of a Top Four seed and a first round bye. It would also be amazing progress. 7-11 in the Big would be great progress, as would 8-10. 9-9 would be more than any reasonable basketball mind would have projected in this year's Big Ten, a year where eight teams may make the NCAA tournament.
If the Hawks can manage just five more wins before the end of the season, which would mean a 5-7 record down the stretch, it would mean a guaranteed .500 or better season.
I think they'll get that done, at the least and it will mean Iowa will get an invitation to one of the post season tournaments. If they can get to 17-14 and then win the opening round game in the Big Ten tournament, it could put them in contention for the NIT but that tournament has been more selective in recent years.
At any rate, I'll take any post season invitation because it will mean the Hawkeye program is heading in the right direction. Couple that with best recruiting class in a decade and fan interest at a five year high and things are looking up for the Iowa cagers.
