JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Can Iowa Still Win the Big Ten?
After Tuesday’s spirit crushing two point loss to Michigan State in overtime, some folks may have written off a regular season Big Ten title shot for Iowa. It’s tough to blame them as that loss has been tough to shake for a lot of people and losses like that tend to move some to the edge.
Iowa’s chances of winning a regular season title were greatly reduced with that loss, a loss to a depleted Michigan State team and a loss where Iowa didn’t make a field goal for nearly the last 10 minutes of regulation and and over four minutes of the overtime. Iowa had a shot to win it at the buzzer in regulation but Dev Marble’s shot just missed. Iowa had a chance to tie or win at the end of overtime but Mike Gesell’s shot went awry.
The fact that Iowa had those chances despite its field goal drought is remarkable in and of itself, but this was a Michigan State team who was operating without two of its (and the Big Ten’s) best players and an injured point guard who was effectively taken out of the game.
It was extremely disappointing…however, to give up on this team would be foolish. Most have not, just the vocal minority on message boards and twitter. But most would wager the Hawkeyes cannot win the regular season Big Ten title. To get there, I think Iowa is only going to be able to lose one more game tops and finish 14-4 and even then, they could fall one game short of sharing the crown.
Let’s chart a path of possibility by going over Iowa’s remaining schedule.
at ILLINOIS: Iowa has a big test on Saturday at Illinois. It’s not necessarily this year’s Illini that is the big problem, rather history. I realize history isn’t suiting up, but it’s impossible to ignore this fact; Assembly Hall in Champaign has been a house of horrors for Iowa basketball dating back a generation; Iowa has one win there since their 22-point second half comeback in 1987, and oh what a glorious game that was. I think this team bounces back like they have all year from losses. Fran McCaffery challenges their toughness after the Michigan State loss; I believe they will respond. This is a game I had as a loss before the year, but I had Iowa beating Michigan State at home. WIN CHANCE: 60%
This tweet from Saturday following the Northwestern win:
[tweet]427154688144719872[/tweet]
OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes are in total free fall. Iowa’s win in Columbus may have lost its shine a bit since the Buckeyes have lost four games since then, including at home against Penn State on Wednesday night. However, a road win in the Big Ten is still a thing to treasure and Iowa has two of them, including one at Ohio State. I felt before the year that Iowa would lose at Ohio State and beat them at home and I think they do win at home for a sweep of the Buckeyes. WIN CHANCE: 70%
MICHIGAN: If Iowa loses this game, their Big Ten title hopes are over. Work with me here as I am assuming they win the first two. McCaffery would be in a position to let them know that. Do they learn from the Michigan State game? Will they be able to handle the moment? When they left Ann Arbor I felt the Hawkeyes would beat the Wolverines in Iowa City. I still feel as though their capable but we’ll know a lot more about their mindset after these net two, but now favor Iowa: WIN CHANCE: 55%
at PENN STATE: Iowa has a week to prepare for this game. I am not saying they ‘game plan’ Penn State for a week, but this will be the final such break for them of the season and it will be time to batten down the hatches and shore up areas of weakness. This game has scared me all year and with Penn State gaining confidence with two wins lately, on top of some close losses in their first five games, it’s going to be trouble. Plus, they are a smallish, guard oriented team who can get hot from three. Michigan lost at Penn State late last season and still made it to the national title game and that Penn State team didn’t have Tim Frazier. WIN CHANCE: 51%
at INDIANA: Another ESPN Super Tuesday affair for the Hawkeyes…this time in Bloomington. This Indiana team is Jeckyl and Hyde and I think there is a good chance that Iowa could run them right out of the gym. But this Iowa team is a bit of a Jeckyl and Hyde in their own right. WIN CHANCE: 55%
WISCONSIN: This is one I have been looking forward to since Iowa’s loss in Madison. The Badgers also just lost a home game to Northwestern, a team that Iowa beat 93-67 at home and 76-50 on the road. When I see things like this, I remind myself that Iowa’s five losses this year have come against teams who were ranked in the Top 20 this week…but the Badgers may not be for long. Iowa will win this game. WIN CHANCE: 75%
at MINNESOTA: Will Andre Hollins ankle be 100% by then? He will have been back on the court by then for sure, but that ankle sprain was pretty nasty. This game is also a tough spot, too as the Gophers can get hot from three and make things very hard on you. Iowa is a better basketball team but a lot will depend on if Iowa has become what it can be and develops a killer instinct. WIN CHANCE: 55%
PURDUE: This is simply a game that a good basketball team doesn’t lose. I realize that it’s the Big Ten and there probably aren’t any bad teams, but if you fancy yourself as one of the nation’s Top 15 teams, you win this one. WIN CHANCE: 80%
at MICHIGAN STATE: I’d love to see Iowa return the favor and win in the Breslin Center for the first time since 1993, but I don’t see it. Not right now I don’t. WIN CHANCE: 15%
ILLINOIS: This will be a Thursday-Saturday turnaround for Iowa, their one and only such instance this year. No Orange Krush invasion this year. WIN CHANCE: 75%
Do I think Iowa will go 9-1 over these last ten games? No, I don’t. I think 7-3 is probably more likely. If they did go 9-1, I think it’s even odds they tie either Michigan or Michigan State for the title, but 15-3 may be the number. Michigan would have to lose four more games for them to be 14-4, including a game in Iowa City. Their road slate the rest of the year is at Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue and Illinois. They already have road wins at Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan State; will they be too tough to catch? That may be the case already.
This wasn’t a ‘Big Ten title or Bust’ season when it began so I am not trying to push it that way now. It’s just that this team was better positioned to win a Big Ten title than any in at least seven years and it’s a heck of a lot of fun being relevant again, which is why the loss at home to Michigan State was so gut wrenching.
But as Wednesday night in the Big Ten proved, when Ohio State lost at home to Penn State and Wisconsin fell to Northwestern in the Kohl Center, anything is possible in this league…and Iowa would be my odds on favorite to win the Big Ten tournament title come March.
PS: I'd like to thank Northwestern for helping me shake the malaise that had descended upon me following Iowa's loss to Michigan State. Seeing you lose at home to Northwestern was chicken soup for the Hawkeye soul.
After Tuesday’s spirit crushing two point loss to Michigan State in overtime, some folks may have written off a regular season Big Ten title shot for Iowa. It’s tough to blame them as that loss has been tough to shake for a lot of people and losses like that tend to move some to the edge.
Iowa’s chances of winning a regular season title were greatly reduced with that loss, a loss to a depleted Michigan State team and a loss where Iowa didn’t make a field goal for nearly the last 10 minutes of regulation and and over four minutes of the overtime. Iowa had a shot to win it at the buzzer in regulation but Dev Marble’s shot just missed. Iowa had a chance to tie or win at the end of overtime but Mike Gesell’s shot went awry.
The fact that Iowa had those chances despite its field goal drought is remarkable in and of itself, but this was a Michigan State team who was operating without two of its (and the Big Ten’s) best players and an injured point guard who was effectively taken out of the game.
It was extremely disappointing…however, to give up on this team would be foolish. Most have not, just the vocal minority on message boards and twitter. But most would wager the Hawkeyes cannot win the regular season Big Ten title. To get there, I think Iowa is only going to be able to lose one more game tops and finish 14-4 and even then, they could fall one game short of sharing the crown.
Let’s chart a path of possibility by going over Iowa’s remaining schedule.
at ILLINOIS: Iowa has a big test on Saturday at Illinois. It’s not necessarily this year’s Illini that is the big problem, rather history. I realize history isn’t suiting up, but it’s impossible to ignore this fact; Assembly Hall in Champaign has been a house of horrors for Iowa basketball dating back a generation; Iowa has one win there since their 22-point second half comeback in 1987, and oh what a glorious game that was. I think this team bounces back like they have all year from losses. Fran McCaffery challenges their toughness after the Michigan State loss; I believe they will respond. This is a game I had as a loss before the year, but I had Iowa beating Michigan State at home. WIN CHANCE: 60%
This tweet from Saturday following the Northwestern win:
[tweet]427154688144719872[/tweet]
OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes are in total free fall. Iowa’s win in Columbus may have lost its shine a bit since the Buckeyes have lost four games since then, including at home against Penn State on Wednesday night. However, a road win in the Big Ten is still a thing to treasure and Iowa has two of them, including one at Ohio State. I felt before the year that Iowa would lose at Ohio State and beat them at home and I think they do win at home for a sweep of the Buckeyes. WIN CHANCE: 70%
MICHIGAN: If Iowa loses this game, their Big Ten title hopes are over. Work with me here as I am assuming they win the first two. McCaffery would be in a position to let them know that. Do they learn from the Michigan State game? Will they be able to handle the moment? When they left Ann Arbor I felt the Hawkeyes would beat the Wolverines in Iowa City. I still feel as though their capable but we’ll know a lot more about their mindset after these net two, but now favor Iowa: WIN CHANCE: 55%
at PENN STATE: Iowa has a week to prepare for this game. I am not saying they ‘game plan’ Penn State for a week, but this will be the final such break for them of the season and it will be time to batten down the hatches and shore up areas of weakness. This game has scared me all year and with Penn State gaining confidence with two wins lately, on top of some close losses in their first five games, it’s going to be trouble. Plus, they are a smallish, guard oriented team who can get hot from three. Michigan lost at Penn State late last season and still made it to the national title game and that Penn State team didn’t have Tim Frazier. WIN CHANCE: 51%
at INDIANA: Another ESPN Super Tuesday affair for the Hawkeyes…this time in Bloomington. This Indiana team is Jeckyl and Hyde and I think there is a good chance that Iowa could run them right out of the gym. But this Iowa team is a bit of a Jeckyl and Hyde in their own right. WIN CHANCE: 55%
WISCONSIN: This is one I have been looking forward to since Iowa’s loss in Madison. The Badgers also just lost a home game to Northwestern, a team that Iowa beat 93-67 at home and 76-50 on the road. When I see things like this, I remind myself that Iowa’s five losses this year have come against teams who were ranked in the Top 20 this week…but the Badgers may not be for long. Iowa will win this game. WIN CHANCE: 75%
at MINNESOTA: Will Andre Hollins ankle be 100% by then? He will have been back on the court by then for sure, but that ankle sprain was pretty nasty. This game is also a tough spot, too as the Gophers can get hot from three and make things very hard on you. Iowa is a better basketball team but a lot will depend on if Iowa has become what it can be and develops a killer instinct. WIN CHANCE: 55%
PURDUE: This is simply a game that a good basketball team doesn’t lose. I realize that it’s the Big Ten and there probably aren’t any bad teams, but if you fancy yourself as one of the nation’s Top 15 teams, you win this one. WIN CHANCE: 80%
at MICHIGAN STATE: I’d love to see Iowa return the favor and win in the Breslin Center for the first time since 1993, but I don’t see it. Not right now I don’t. WIN CHANCE: 15%
ILLINOIS: This will be a Thursday-Saturday turnaround for Iowa, their one and only such instance this year. No Orange Krush invasion this year. WIN CHANCE: 75%
Do I think Iowa will go 9-1 over these last ten games? No, I don’t. I think 7-3 is probably more likely. If they did go 9-1, I think it’s even odds they tie either Michigan or Michigan State for the title, but 15-3 may be the number. Michigan would have to lose four more games for them to be 14-4, including a game in Iowa City. Their road slate the rest of the year is at Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue and Illinois. They already have road wins at Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan State; will they be too tough to catch? That may be the case already.
This wasn’t a ‘Big Ten title or Bust’ season when it began so I am not trying to push it that way now. It’s just that this team was better positioned to win a Big Ten title than any in at least seven years and it’s a heck of a lot of fun being relevant again, which is why the loss at home to Michigan State was so gut wrenching.
But as Wednesday night in the Big Ten proved, when Ohio State lost at home to Penn State and Wisconsin fell to Northwestern in the Kohl Center, anything is possible in this league…and Iowa would be my odds on favorite to win the Big Ten tournament title come March.
PS: I'd like to thank Northwestern for helping me shake the malaise that had descended upon me following Iowa's loss to Michigan State. Seeing you lose at home to Northwestern was chicken soup for the Hawkeye soul.
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