Michigan State and Iowa - two best teams in the Big Ten

[WindsorHawk]

Numbers are just that, let's get through Michigan and Northwestern before these numbers matter, which until the ball bounces they don't.

True. Numbers are just numbers. Of course highlight videos of high school kids are just videos. Recruit rankings are just recruit rankings. I suppose we can wait until seasons, careers, etc. are over before we discuss this stuff but that eliminates a lot of interesting speculation and discussion IMO.

 

[tm3308]

This is very simple. The number of minutes in a game is fixed. There are 80 total minutes available at the 4 and the 5. I took the 4 players they use at those positions and the 6 players we use at those positions...only used guys averaging at least 10 minutes a game. Our depth is the whole reason I made this argument in the first place.

Except that White and Uthoff spend most of their time playing on the perimeter at the 3. White spends some time at the 4, too, but he's primarily a perimeter player these days. So you're taking the six guys who make up 120 minutes at three positions to 4 guys at MSU who make up 80 minutes at two positions.

 

[Jjgoiowa11]

Iowa was +6.1 ppg and +3.7 rebounds last year (and I'd bet the numbers were more heavily skewed in Iowa's favor at the time of the first meeting, since the stats were still heavy on the OOC games), and Michigan State didn't have any trouble matching up with us inside (not to mention the fact that Dawson completely shut White down).

We handled Minnesota inside, but their biggest weakness is inside. MSU had no trouble with Minnesota inside, either; the frontcourt guys outscored Minnesota 30-18 and outrebounded them 21-16. They also had 6 blocked shots. And Payne didn't even play.

I really don't see the shame in admitting that, despite statistical advantages in Iowa's favor going into the game, Michigan State can match up inside. We've got depth, but unless MSU gets in foul trouble with Payne and Dawson (and this is MSU we're talking about here; that's hardly a given, even in Carver), they'll be able to match alright. Plus, who's to say that WE won't get into foul trouble? Gabe, Woody and Mel all have a tendency to do just that, and they'll be drawing Payne a lot of the time, which means foul trouble is a definite possibility for them.

We aren't going to see 4 of our inside guys on the floor at the same time, and Dawson will almost certainly draw responsibility for White/Uthoff, which he's more than capable of handling. Uthoff is going to have to step up his game (averaging 7.6 ppg and 3 rpg in conference play), because Dawson will likely be on White whenever both are on the floor. Payne will have the advantage against any of the three guys we might throw at him (Woody, Gabe and Mel); he'll be one of the two best interior players on the floor, if not the best, at all times.

FYI we are 10th in ap. How u like dem apples?!

 

[SnapBack]

All of those guys spend way more time on the perimeter as 3's than they do in the paint.

Until proven otherwise, MSU is the best team in the B1G. Few teams in the country have the kind of firepower they do.

Actually White, McCabe and Utoff would be considered part of their frontcourt, not the backcourt. Iowa plays 3 forwards and 2 guards. Just because they stand around the 3 point line does not make them part of the backcourt. Iowa has a deeper front line than anyone in the B1G and better as a whole.

 

[tm3308]

Actually White, McCabe and Utoff would be considered part of their frontcourt, not the backcourt. Iowa plays 3 forwards and 2 guards. Just because they stand around the 3 point line does not make them part of the backcourt. Iowa has a deeper front line than anyone in the B1G and better as a whole.

I realize they're considered part of the front court. That doesn't mean they spend most of their time inside as post players, which is what he was limiting MSU to. If you include Valentine, who's kind of a guard/forward tweener, Iowa is +5.7 ppg and +3 rpg. Those numbers are VERY similar to last year's.

I definitely believe we can beat MSU, especially in Carver. But I don't think we have a meaningful advantage inside, assuming MSU is healthy.

 

[Jjgoiowa11]

I realize they're considered part of the front court. That doesn't mean they spend most of their time inside as post players, which is what he was limiting MSU to. If you include Valentine, who's kind of a guard/forward tweener, Iowa is +5.7 ppg and +3 rpg. Those numbers are VERY similar to last year's.

I definitely believe we can beat MSU, especially in Carver. But I don't think we have a meaningful advantage inside, assuming MSU is healthy.

Doesn't the 43 year old Payne hang around the perimeter too and shoot 3's on occasion? I wouldn't know because I'm a hawk fan and could give 2 squirts about him and msu but I know you will

 

[PCHawk]

MSU is more talented than Iowa but it takes more than talent to win at basketball. We will be a better team than them at home but may end up losing anyway. They will be a better team there but they may lose anyway. All in all I would say these teams are very evenly matched.

 

[tm3308]

Doesn't the 43 year old Payne hang around the perimeter too and shoot 3's on occasion? I wouldn't know because I'm a hawk fan and could give 2 squirts about him and msu but I know you will

He does from time to time, but if we're going to limit the comparison to MSU's 4's and 5's to Iowa's 3's, 4's and 5's, it's not a fair comparison.

And since when does being a fan of team mean you have to completely ignore what your team's opponents do?

 

[tm3308]

MSU is more talented than Iowa but it takes more than talent to win at basketball. We will be a better team than them at home but may end up losing anyway. They will be a better team there but they may lose anyway. All in all I would say these teams are very evenly matched.

This. They're very even inside, IMO, and MSU has a small edge in the backcourt (Appling is better than Gesell, but Marble and Harris are very even). It should be a coin flip game both times.

 

[Jjgoiowa11]

He does from time to time, but if we're going to limit the comparison to MSU's 4's and 5's to Iowa's 3's, 4's and 5's, it's not a fair comparison.

And since when does being a fan of team mean you have to completely ignore what your team's opponents do?

Never said u did. I just know you'll know so I asked a simple question. Relax

 

[Bigtenchamp]

Iowa has the advantage down low.. every game is different and anything can happen.

But ya

 

[IowaFan81]

Not looking ahead but Payne may be out 2 more weeks according to the following.

NCAAM Spartans' Adreian Payne likely out - ESPN

 

[Howler]

He does not think they should be struggling the way they have

They're 16-1 and undefeated in the Big Ten.

 

[kctom]

I don't like to so comparative stuff but 2 home OT wins vs tOSU and Minny are hardly impressive in light of IOWAs recent success vs the same 2 teams.

And loss at home to 6 loss UNC team is not pretty. while the positives are wins vs 4 loss KY team and 4 loss OK team.

Granted there have been unifies but the lady luck has been with them some too....

 

[libradawg]

We caught up. Last year we were down our top scorer in the first matchup and they were up 3 refs in the BTT game. 3 points made up the difference there both times. That's a small gap. We're quite a great deal improved but have retained a lot of our upside via so many Sophomores getting big minutes. In other words, we're better and we're still getting better. I don't think they have the same claim. They can't come in against us beaten up and get away with it like in the past. So yeah, we closed the gap and are better in the short term. For them, it's awful early to start looking beat up, which doesn't typically get any better as the season wears on.

 

[tm3308]

We caught up. Last year we were down our top scorer in the first matchup and they were up 3 refs in the BTT game. 3 points made up the difference there both times. That's a small gap. We're quite a great deal improved but have retained a lot of our upside via so many Sophomores getting big minutes. In other words, we're better and we're still getting better. I don't think they have the same claim. They can't come in against us beaten up and get away with it like in the past. So yeah, we closed the gap and are better in the short term. For them, it's awful early to start looking beat up, which doesn't typically get any better as the season wears on.

MSU is better when healthy (albeit by a very slim margin), mainly because of Harris and Appling. Both of those guys are playing at a higher level than last year.

 

[kctom]

One can also say that Marble, White, uthoff, Olesani, Gesel are all playing at a higher level, one can also say that Iowa as a team is playing at a higher level at Off/Def efficiency than MSU is right now, so, I don't think I buy the fact that b/c Appling and Harris are better therefore MSU is playing better than Iowa.

 

[83Hawk]

Interesting to hear the different opinions and speculation.

We'll find out soon just how good Iowa really is. Michigan State is one of the best teams in the country. To think otherwise would be foolish. Iowa is going to have to be firing on all cylinders to win. Can they? Sure they can. It should be a fun and exciting game. Glad it is at Carver.

 

[libradawg]

MSU is better when healthy (albeit by a very slim margin), mainly because of Harris and Appling. Both of those guys are playing at a higher level than last year.

See, that quick disclaimer is all I needed to see. I said earlier, they seem banged up and sluggish at a time of year where that shouldn't be a problem. I think Iowa's losses are due to scheduled lapses, but MSU's close games? They got burned for letting the foot off the gas against OSU and just couldn't match Minnesota's energy, at least not until they ran out of whatever juice they had with them also.

Couple this with Iowa's much-publicized strength; deep roster. Take Marble and White in the worst-case scenario. Insert Uthoff, Jok and McCabe, removing whoever's the true C playing. Gesell-Jok-McCabe-Uthoff-Basabe is the worst possible thing that could happen to Iowa, and that's striking two players, our best players. MSU's big problem right now is a situation we'd thrive on. Iowa won't tire, they won't go brittle, they will always have high energy. Conversely, MSU's strength is raw talent, something we don't lack. I get the feeling that right now even if their roster was healthy they'd preserve themselves for the big finish. I'm simply saying, ANY of that, injuries, fatigue or lack of energy, Iowa will pounce.

Full strength? Again, the slight difference MSU is seeing by comparison is, oh how do I explain it? The difference between a no-brainer top ten squad and a non-NCAA team. I'm not making any conclusions based on that, but I am making them based on the fact MSU does have a weakness that trumps our FT issue.

 

[LASBUR]

Huh ?