Merged - Big 12 Aftermath Thread

ssckelley

Well-Known Member

If AAU membership is not a big deal anymore then perhaps it could happen.

But I don't get why Kansas wouldn't be the top choice but they could be exploring all the options. I still think the Big Ten could look at poaching from the ACC, Virginia or North Carolina.
 

trj

Well-Known Member
Would they bring any more to the table than ISU ... other than they are not ISU?

What could they give the B1G that Iowa doesn't? If I hear about a rabid and passionate fan base one more time I think I will put a bullet in my head(metaphorically speaking of course).
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
Worst case scenario is KD and WVU

Best case is the East coast dominance with NC, VA, Clemson, Geo Tech, FSU

The ACC teams are totally off the table. The ACC has a deal through 2036, if you leave now, you have to pay the conference all your media rights through 2036. It is probably around $200 million to leave the conference. ND has a deal where if they join a conference it has to be the ACC. I believe the only teams reasonably in play for the B1G are Colorado, Utah and a few of the Big 8 leftovers, unless the B1G were willing to add a mid major, which I doubt they would. Perhaps if they could get Colorado but not Utah they would consider BYU, but that's about the only one I could see happening.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
Not sure a Big-XII sans OKie and Tx really cares?

Why?

12 team playoff....that's why.

Every conference will get a reservation at the trough and then some.

Compete and win in a watered-down conference and you're dining at the trough. Simple math.

Bowl games...who cares. The end game is the playoffs.

The genie is out of the bottle. 16 teams is on the horizon as well.

I would bet that in the revised playoff regime, such a Big 12 would be "relegated" to the G5 and would not have an auto berth. Furthermore, the value of their TV contract without Texas is going to be 1/3rd to 1/2 of what it is today. The TV contract is the most important thing to the conference members.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
If NCAA secession is the endgame, are we using an outdated idea of conferences? Will the B1G/ACC/P12 exist as separate entities in a breakaway league?

Conferences will be key for collectively negotiating the media rights. Iowa would lose tens of millions of dollars per year if we weren't leveraging OSU, PSU, Michigan and even Rutgers and Illinois in our media rights deals.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
If AAU membership is not a big deal anymore then perhaps it could happen.

But I don't get why Kansas wouldn't be the top choice but they could be exploring all the options. I still think the Big Ten could look at poaching from the ACC, Virginia or North Carolina.

Nope, the ACC cannot be poached due to their constitution. There is something like a $200 million penalty for withdrawing. No way anyone bolts unless they have the votes to disband the conference.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
This does not need to be a war with the SEC. This is a conflict between media giants; ESPN and FOX. People who are hired by the conference need to be cognizant about the ramifications of adding members to please a media giant. The Big Ten is much more than a bunch of football programs. Letting Disney and Fox dictate what is important to them over the wishes of the alumni and fans has to be a consideration.

Too late, breh. The conference caved to the media giants when it added Rutgers. I agree with your sentiment and I've watched media giants and a desire to be more "national" and "less rural" absolutely crush NASCAR, which was one of my favorite sports growing up. But at the end of the day, money talks and bullshit walks.

No one gives a flying fuck about the long term viability of anything anymore. Look at something like boxing. Once it's clear you can make a ton of cash by completely fleecing a shrinking fan base, they did it. I fear college sports will go the same way. We've already seen it with tickets. Teams would rather sell 50,000 seats at $1,000 a pop than 70,000 seats at $500 a pop. They don't give a shit that the next generation of fans will never develop. Grab the cash today.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
10 years ago I was right there with you 1000% . This feels different. The luxury I felt Iowa having stability and being “equal partners” in the B1G back then doesn’t feel that way now.

Really not comfortable with how this is going to ultimately play out from a Iowa perspective.

I somewhat agree. Iowa and Nebraska are very possibly in an "odd man out" situation if something happens to the B1G. The combined populations of those states is smaller than Minnesota, which is the next smallest state in the B1G. No matter how you slice it, by key metrics Iowa and Nebraska are a lot more like many of the "leftovers" of the Big 12 than they are like the balance of the B1G.

I don't think the B1G will change its revenue model, but if OSU, UM and PSU started getting serious overtures from a revised SEC superconference model, I could see the B1G implementing some sort of uneven revenue model that uses some combination of conference titles and in-state population to ensure that the 3 big money drivers are compensated in line with what the SEC might be able to promise.
 

hawkinn3

Well-Known Member
I somewhat agree. Iowa and Nebraska are very possibly in an "odd man out" situation if something happens to the B1G. The combined populations of those states is smaller than Minnesota, which is the next smallest state in the B1G. No matter how you slice it, by key metrics Iowa and Nebraska are a lot more like many of the "leftovers" of the Big 12 than they are like the balance of the B1G.

I don't think the B1G will change its revenue model, but if OSU, UM and PSU started getting serious overtures from a revised SEC superconference model, I could see the B1G implementing some sort of uneven revenue model that uses some combination of conference titles and in-state population to ensure that the 3 big money drivers are compensated in line with what the SEC might be able to promise.

I have been in favor for a decade of an upper and lower class Division 1 (or whatever it’s called now).

The super programs like OSU, Bama etc. can fight it out each year and the normal schools where it’s a fucking school first and not an excuse to have a football team can slow down the arms race and we can enjoy sports without the insanity.

A place like Iowa is never winning a Natty under the current system. I’d rather play in the BIG without OSU and have viable shots at the conference each year.
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
Nope, the ACC cannot be poached due to their constitution. There is something like a $200 million penalty for withdrawing. No way anyone bolts unless they have the votes to disband the conference.

$200 million seems high, but I do remember there is a big penalty for leaving. They put that in place after the Big Ten poached Maryland IIRC. That's a great point that often gets missed.

But along those lines does the Big Ten have a penalty for leaving?
 

Fryowa

Administrator
I have been in favor for a decade of an upper and lower class Division 1 (or whatever it’s called now).

The super programs like OSU, Bama etc. can fight it out each year and the normal schools where it’s a fucking school first and not an excuse to have a football team can slow down the arms race and we can enjoy sports without the insanity.

A place like Iowa is never winning a Natty under the current system. I’d rather play in the BIG without OSU and have viable shots at the conference each year.
No way. That’s a loser attitude.

P5 football is fun because of good football teams. Take all the best teams out and start a Loser League like you’re suggesting, and all the money is gone. Could just as well tear Kinnick down because you wouldn’t even be able to afford to maintain it.

That, and how do you decide what schools are in your "super league?"

Putting Miami and Nebraska in it back in the 90s would have been a pretty good idea but it'd also look pretty fucking stupid now.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
$200 million seems high, but I do remember there is a big penalty for leaving. They put that in place after the Big Ten poached Maryland IIRC. That's a great point that often gets missed.

But along those lines does the Big Ten have a penalty for leaving?

I haven't looked into it, but I would bet it does. You can't sell the media rights for a set period of time and then have all the teams switch conferences. The BTN is variable payment, but the other TV deals are fixed dollar amounts.
 

Motigerhawk

Well-Known Member
The ACC teams are totally off the table. The ACC has a deal through 2036, if you leave now, you have to pay the conference all your media rights through 2036. It is probably around $200 million to leave the conference. ND has a deal where if they join a conference it has to be the ACC. I believe the only teams reasonably in play for the B1G are Colorado, Utah and a few of the Big 8 leftovers, unless the B1G were willing to add a mid major, which I doubt they would. Perhaps if they could get Colorado but not Utah they would consider BYU, but that's about the only one I could see happening.

Yeah, the TV rights deal the ACC signed was a smart move.
 

BryceC

Well-Known Member
The ACC teams are totally off the table. The ACC has a deal through 2036, if you leave now, you have to pay the conference all your media rights through 2036. It is probably around $200 million to leave the conference. ND has a deal where if they join a conference it has to be the ACC. I believe the only teams reasonably in play for the B1G are Colorado, Utah and a few of the Big 8 leftovers, unless the B1G were willing to add a mid major, which I doubt they would. Perhaps if they could get Colorado but not Utah they would consider BYU, but that's about the only one I could see happening.

It's more than that - the ACC teams would also surrender their home ticket sales revenue. Start from the assumption in all of this NOBODY is leaving the ACC, Big 10, or SEC. The rest is what you have to choose from.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
No way. That’s a loser attitude.

P5 football is fun because of good football teams. Take all the best teams out and start a Loser League like you’re suggesting, and all the money is gone. Could just as well tear Kinnick down because you wouldn’t even be able to afford to maintain it.

That, and how do you decide what schools are in your "super league?"

Putting Miami and Nebraska in it back in the 90s would have been a pretty good idea but it'd also look pretty fucking stupid now.

Well, the money might not be gone, it would just be reallocated. Or it could slip a bit. Iowa for sure would get screwed.

When they expanded the SEC the strength skewed to the SEC East and people thought it was way off balance because Tennessee, Georgia and Florida were so good. Now, the SEC West is way better.

The big boys really need the mid-tier and low-tier teams. OSU beating Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana and Iowa is way better for them than splitting games against Oklahoma, Texas, LSU and Florida or gasp, going 0-4 in those games. I think they understand that. The aggregate records at the end of the season are a zero sum game and if Texas or Michigan or Penn State had a 10 year run of sub .500 ball I really think it could hurt the value of their brands. With the 12 team playoff, no one is gonna remember the season, they'll just remember "WE WON 10 GAMES AND MADE THE PLAYOFF."
 

longtimer

Well-Known Member
Lot of "experts" predicting now that Iowa State lands in Big Ten. Of course the timing could not have been better for Iowa State with a big year coming in football and one of the very hot coaches. Plus very good facilities and tremendous fan support.
Not great history in football (and that's a generous interpretation) and the big drawback not likely to add much to the bottom line $$
All that being said I think they will be in the Big Ten. Am I for it NO Can't see any positives for Iowa program.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
It's more than that - the ACC teams would also surrender their home ticket sales revenue. Start from the assumption in all of this NOBODY is leaving the ACC, Big 10, or SEC. The rest is what you have to choose from.
Yikes, I hadn't heard that part of it. I wonder if the ACC will go after West Virginia and try to pull ND in so they are at 16. Man, I just can't see the B1G going after anyone other than KU, Colorado or Utah. If I were an ISU fan and found out the B1G didn't want us, I would probably be hoping the B1G got Colorado and Utah or Kansas and that move left the Pac 12 scrambling for some teams. Say I was the Pac 12 and had to fill out 5 slots (assume KU and CU to B1G), I'd go Baylor as a no brainer, but then I have 5 other teams for four slots (ISU, OSU, KSU, Texas Tech and TCU). I have to think ISU is a decent add and one of the better ones on the list, but it is the worst geographic fit (albeit the others aren't great either).

Man, ND could be the wild card here. If they stay independent, barring the Pac 12 deciding to push for some G5s to move up, if every conference wants to go to 16 and the Big Ten gets "first pick" then ISU could wind up in either the ACC or Pac 12. I just see KSU and ISU as the two most vulnerable teams on the "available" teams. What an absolutely shitty position to be in. Maybe TCU is pretty vulnerable as well. They seemed like sort of an afterthought add to the Big 12.
 
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