Here is something I wrote back on April 10th when looking ahead to this upcoming season as it relates to Marble:
Devyn Marble 2011-2012 averages – 11.5p/3.8r/3.6a: Marble’s freshman to sophomore transformation was one of the more remarkable I can recall in all of my years watching Iowa basketball. He averaged 5.7p/2.4r/1.3a per game as a wet nosed frosh and more than doubled his point production year to year. While making such statistical improvements isn’t entirely uncommon, the way Marble played in doing so is my big takeaway. Seldom have I seen a player gain that much confidence, or swagger, from his freshman to sophomore season when the freshman season was ‘OK’.
Granted, Marble didn’t arrive at Iowa with huge expectations; he was overlooked coming out of high school, he was small and he was young for his age. In another era of Iowa basketball, it might have been a reach for Iowa to go after Marble at all. All he did last year was prove he belongs on the Big Ten stage and he sets himself up for high expectations heading into the second half of his college career. He doesn’t lack for confidence in himself and that’s a good thing, because he’ll need that swagger these next two years when he will be expected to do big things and other teams will be trying to stop him.
AREAS TO IMPROVE: Marble needs to spend some time in the weight room and add lower body and core strength to his frame. It will help him with balance and body control as he spends a lot of time attacking the basket and will give him a better chance of finishing on the ‘and one’s’. He also needs to spend a lot of time shooting jump shots this year. While he had a great 7 of 8 three-point shooting barrage in the season’s final game at Oregon, he can do more damage in the mid-range pull up game, like his father did.
That said, if Marble can become a 37% shooter from beyond the arc on around 100 attempts, it will be a big help to the team. Yes, I realize his season ending percentage was .393, but it was 31% before that final game and he attempted just 55 three’s on the year. He deferred to Matt Gatens on the arc this year, which was a good idea but he won’t have the luxury of passing up some of those three-point looks next season. Marble attempted 141 free throws last season (second most on the team) and made 72.3%. That’s a solid number and he made some clutch free throws in late game situations. Marble also led the Hawkeyes in steals last year with 53 and he should continue to be a solid force on defense.
ROUGH PROJECTION: I think Marble can improve his scoring by 2.5 points per game or more. I’ll slot him in for 14/ppg and bump his rebounding totals to 4.5/game. He’ll likely play less point next year, which means he should be in the mix for more rebounding opportunities. I suspect his assists per game numbers may go down due to the depth Iowa is adding at the point, although he’ll still log some minutes at the position. While he’ll be shooting for first team all Big Ten honors as a personal goal, I think a second team nod at the end of the year is certainly within reach.
After reading over this account from April, there isn't a thing I would change as nothing really has changed.
As Howe wrote in this piece from Sunday night on his site, former Hawkeye Kenyon Murray was on the radio recently in Iowa City and talked about how he's talked with some people "in the know" and they feel it's a possibility...a possibility that Devyn could have a decision to make, if he improves.
Obviously, he has to improve. He has to improve on his outside shot quite a bit, at least in my opinion...all the more so if people project him to be a two or three in the league. If he is going to play point (which some people close to him have suggested to me that may be his professional future) he won't have to shoot the lights out this year but would be aided with adding that muscle I was talking about.
This could present an interesting situation...Marble is the best 'known commodity' as a point guard this team has as of now. Mike Gesell looks like a kid who is going to get a lot of point minutes this year and Anthony Clemmons could get some, too. How many point guard minutes will Marble get? What position do folks in the league project for Marble and if it's the point, how will reduced minutes play into that?
Iowa is probably going to be a better team with both of those players on the floor at the same time. I guess Gesell could play some two, but I don't know that it will play out that way. Regardless, I don't know that I see Marble as a point guard in the NBA. I don't think he's quick enough at this point and he's not shown a good enough outside shot to be a first round pick as a two-guard, has he?
I probably need to stop from going too much farther down that road because I am not a talent scout, however I did strongly advocate for choosing Kevin Durant over Greg Oden and have the podcasts to prove it. (written in jest).
This is ALL about IF Marble has another exponential year of growth on the basketball court. If he is just marginally improved, that will be good news for Iowa basketball but likely not enough to feel anywhere near good enough about a first round selection...and you don't want to turn pro early unless you know you are going in the first round, as those are the only guaranteed contracts in the league. ESPN's NBA Draft Guru Chad Ford put together his early Top 100 for the 2013 draft and has Michigan's Tim Hardaway Jr at 66, with Marble nowhere in sight.
Could Marble improve exponentially for the second year in a row? Yes, but it's so rare to see any player in college do that twice in the same career given the level Marble came from and got to between year one and two.
However, Marble does have the age factor on his side. He'll be just 20 years old next spring when player's have to declare. He'll have played three years of Big Ten basketball at that point, but still just 20 years old. I turned 21 during my junior year of college, as do most people. That's absolutely a chip in his favor, if he can show the folks in the league improvement this coming season.
There are other angles to this that one could write about, but really, it's all a matter of needing to see this year and, as Marble himself said, it's premature. Nobody would say that he would get 1st round consideration where he's at right now. He'll be a better basketball player for Iowa this coming year than he was one year ago. Will it be enough for him to get serious and legit first round overtures? Who knows.
The odds would suggest he'll be at Iowa for his fourth year but here's to hoping he flat goes off in 2012-2013 and makes this real interesting next April. That would be a win-win situation for him and the program. If he does it, nobody will have to remind me of my July 2nd, 2012 opinion on the matter as I will beat you to the punch and gladly admit I was wrong.
