Line on Iowa 7.5 Over/Under

AreWeThereYet

AreWeThereYet

Well-Known Member
The post spring ball betting line on Iowa next season is 7.5 regular season wins. (like is said, regular season wins)

Over or Under. Tell us why.

guffus - says 8.5 - I take that as over.
Fryowa - Under - 6.5
AreWeThereYet - 8 - A timid over
WinOneThisCentury - 9 minimum - Over
lightening - 7 - Under - and a loss in the poinsettia bowl :D
ibahawkeye - 8 by my calculation - Over
homes - Over
motigerhawk - Under - too much rebuilding.
trj - Over - if we beat Iowa State
mopkins - barely over
Hawknigh - Underwhelming noncommittal.
thetrza - National Championship and all our money.
earlkoppelman - 7 - Under
1hawkeye1 - 8 - Over
Hawkeyes87 - 7 - Under with a yawn
Wizard_Hawk - Is willing to go out on a limb for 9 or 10 wins
eledmonster - 8 - Over
Ree4 - An enthusiastic 10 or more
Long boring argument about which years of KF's record are going to count.
NoBeer - Will be pissed if we are under
Thread devolves into pissing match.
taffaej - Under - And thinks for noticing this is an over/under thread.
4thngoal - over
tksirius - 7 - under (from his own over/under thread) :cool:
Pythagoras - Over
 
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For the 15th year in a row. It's like being a weatherman in Southern California. Today, the same as yesterday. Tomorrow, the same as today. Next year, the same. The same. The same. It's always the same.
 
Over under should be 8.5 only because the schedule in 2018 "should" be easier than 2017 or 2019.

But I have said it many times, an "easy" schedule does not turn a 7-5 team into an 10-2 team, instead it turns a 7-5 team into an 8-4 team. So following that logic, if Iowa had last year's schedule, its over-under would be 7.5. Instead with an "easier" schedule, it's over-over should be 8.5
 
AreWeThereYet said:
The post spring ball betting line on Iowa next season is 7.5 regular season wins. (like is said, regular season wins)

Over or Under. Tell us why.
Click to expand...
If you’re going to do this, you should edit your original post and update it with everyone’s predictions. Then we can crucify each other at the end of the season.

I’m voting under.

Why? Because why would it be any different? The Hawks will drop a non-con and lose a couple more they shouldn’t, upset a good team, and then finish up 6-6 or 7-5. Just. Like. Always. There will be periodic flukes like 2015 and 2012, but the gold standard for the Hawkeye football team is just over 6.5 wins.
 
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I feel there is a strong chance of 8 regular season wins.

Most likely to least likely.

(8 wins) Wisconsin & Penn State are both solidly favored against Iowa. The season starts nicely with four home games. Than there is a stretch with 4 of 5 away games. I think Iowa looses Penn State and one they are favored in. Northwestern at Iowa is a toss-up. The chief determining factor being which team comes in healthier that late in the season. Illinois should be a win. Nebraska still isn't built to play nine games against thick ankled behemoths. They'll be beat up and get beat on again.

(7 wins) Injuries at critical spots are an issue about 2/3 of seasons. Of those seasons about half cannot be played through without additional lost games.

(9 or more wins) Iowa gets on a winning streak about 1 of 4 seasons. The signs on next season are mixed. On defense is a rebuilding year at linebacker. Offense looks set for some improvement but the middle of the offensive line is unproven. Tight end is once again going to be difficult for opponents to deal with. Running back looks adequate but a little thin on depth. Receiver (always) has a lot of room for improvement.

(6 or less wins) Most likely it would take a quarterback injury.

edit) Oh yes, OVER slightly. ;)
 
I'll throw in a few percentages.

25% - 9 or more
35% - 8 wins
25% - 7 wins
15% - 6 or less

Bowl win 60/40 against
 
homes said:
For the 15th year in a row. It's like being a weatherman in Southern California. Today, the same as yesterday. Tomorrow, the same as today. Next year, the same. The same. The same. It's always the same.
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Except for years where it's not.
 
Well, you had 6 players leave that are going to be hard to replace...Daniels, Welch, Wadley, Jewell, Neiman, & Jackson. So you have 16 spots that just got a year older and more experienced. I know Bazata is gone too, but I feel his impact will be less as he rotated with Nelson and Lattimore.

Offensively, as I've said, the two offensive linemen will most likely be replaced with seniors or juniors...unless we have injuries. That's a good thing. The other good thing is that most of these guys are big too...and with two 325lb offensive tackles with some athleticism...well...you would think we are going to be pretty damn physical upfront. IKM and Young are no slouches...and I honestly think they hold their own with what Wadley did. Both are bigger more physical backs, plus IKM showed flashes of being very good in the open field.

Defensively, replacing Jewell, Neiman, and Jackson is daunting, but we have recruited well and you have to trust that these players step in and do the job. Jewell was once a soph and look how his first year turned out. Jackson had one good year at CB...his first starting. History tells you Phil Parker can get guys up to speed.

All that said...I really think this team wins 9 games minimum...and if we have a passing attack that can stand on it's own when we aren't running the ball well...then this team could get on a roll. Fant & Hockenson are a tough tandem, and Easley showed he can play. We need Smith or ISM to take a major leap...and our offense then becomes very hard to defend.
 
Fryowa said:
If you’re going to do this, you should edit your original post and update it with everyone’s predictions. Then we can crucify each other at the end of the season.

I’m voting under.

Why? Because why would it be any different? The Hawks will drop a non-con and lose a couple more they shouldn’t, upset a good team, and then finish up 6-6 or 7-5. Just. Like. Always. There will be periodic flukes like 2015 and 2012, but the gold standard for the Hawkeye football team is just over 6.5 wins.
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Not too far off, but you are selling them a bit short. Starting in 2000 (when they began playing 12-game regular seasons), here are KF's regular season wins by season:
2000 - 3
2001 - 6
2002 - 11
2003 - 9
2004 - 9
2005 - 7
2006 - 6
2007 - 6
2008 - 8
2009 - 10
2010 - 7
2011 - 7
2012 - 4
2013 - 8
2014 - 7
2015 -12
2016 - 8
2017 - 7

Mean 7.5 per season, median 7, mode 7
Seasons with <6 wins: 2
Seasons with 6 wins: 3
Seasons with 7 wins: 5
Seasons with 8 or more wins: 8

So 8 out of 19 seasons have been 6-6 or 7-5. However, 8 out of 19 seasons have better than that.
 
Last year was a 9-3 team if the Offensive Line had stayed injury free (it did not).

I think 9-3 is very possible this year, if the team avoids the injury bug.

Iowa does not go 7-5 or 6-6 every year. Ferentz best regular season records since 2007:

08 8-4
10 10-2
13 8-4
15 12-0
16 8-4

In 5 of the past 10 seasons, Iowa has won 8 or more games (50% batting average), and in 2 of 10 seasons they won MORE than 8 games.

If it is really rinse, wash, repeat, then here are the percentages:

7 wins or less: 50%
8 wins: 30%
9 wins or more: 20%
 
It's not that difficult

5-7-2018_1-55-40_PM.jpg
 
Give me the over but I'm not betting the house by any means.

I always kind of look at the schedule in 3, 4 game sets.

First 4: Northern IL & UNI should be wins. I'll never predict a loss to ISU. Wisconsin is at least at home. 3-1
Next 4: Minnesota, Indiana, Maryland, Penn St - 2-2
Last 4: Purdue, Northwestern, IL, Nebby - 3-1
 
homes said:
For the 15th year in a row. It's like being a weatherman in Southern California. Today, the same as yesterday. Tomorrow, the same as today. Next year, the same. The same. The same. It's always the same.
Click to expand...

Could be worse. Could be ISU's the last ten seasons which would be what, 3.5?
 
Just to add to the discussion, I want to look at turning close losses into wins. Last year we lost 3 games against top 20, 10 win teams by one possession. Just a handful of plays go our way and we had a 10-3 season ourselves, but that's what ifs. Looking at Iowa history, however, there is a pattern of a season of close losses preceding a successful one.

In 2001, 4 of 5 losses came by one possession, and the 5th was by 9 to a Joe Tiller-led Purdue team. In 2002, we convert those tight games, going 3-1 instead.

In 2008, all 4 losses came by a total of 12 points, going an overall 2-4 in one possession games. The following year, we go 4-2 in those games en route to an Orange Bowl win.

In 2014, we go 3-4 in close games including some snoozer wins over UNI and Ball State, and losing the final 3. In 2015, again we reverse that trend, going 5-1, the only loss being the B1GCCG.

These numbers are hardly concrete or predictive, but with such a young team last year that got a lot of experience and showed flashes of brilliance, I'd argue that the experience of losing close games may be key in learning how to win them this coming season.
 
I'll do the historical line the easy way.

19 seasons; 224 games;136 wins

(136/224) (12) = 7.29

Ferentz career over/under is 7.3 on regular season games
(this is adjusted to a 12 game year. There were four 11 game years)
 
We will lose at PSU. I think we will start 3-0, and then upset WI. Its time. I don't see a certain loss in the remaining 8 games, but would not be shocked by a couple of losses. So, I will go with 9-3.
 
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