Lil Debbie and a bowl berth

loesshillshawk

loesshillshawk

Well-Known Member
Having grown up in SW Iowa and having the Huskers crammed down your throat this is a huge game to me. Win and bragging rights are so good, lose and it is totally unbearable. Having watched all the Nebraska games this year there defense is greatly improved, but have they really been tested that much? The thing that scares me is that they blitz a TON. I just hope the staff comes up with some passing plays on first down and does not continue to run up the middle on early downs. I think they are susceptible to giving up some yards rushing if we are smart. Offensively the Purdy kid scares me to death. The team seems to be rallying around him, and he is that mobile QB who can also chuck it pretty good. The great equalizer will be if the running back that got hurt late is available on Friday. They are thin at running back. With Purdy they are able to throw the ball. Fidone is the real deal and will have a hard on to beat Iowa. There wide receivers are TALL...that worries me as you know they will game plan to pick on our CB's.

I also wonder how much is left in our tank after a hard fought game on Saturday with a quick turn around. I know Nebraska is in the same boat and had an away game Saturday. However, this is their chance to get to a bowl in front of a 100K fans. I wish I had a great feeling...special teams will be the difference I think. Nebraska has an 18 year old field goal kicker, and they have struggled with special teams all year. Interested to hear other thoughts on the game. GO HAWKS...
 
loesshillshawk said:
Having grown up in SW Iowa and having the Huskers crammed down your throat this is a huge game to me. Win and bragging rights are so good, lose and it is totally unbearable. Having watched all the Nebraska games this year there defense is greatly improved, but have they really been tested that much? The thing that scares me is that they blitz a TON. I just hope the staff comes up with some passing plays on first down and does not continue to run up the middle on early downs. I think they are susceptible to giving up some yards rushing if we are smart. Offensively the Purdy kid scares me to death. The team seems to be rallying around him, and he is that mobile QB who can also chuck it pretty good. The great equalizer will be if the running back that got hurt late is available on Friday. They are thin at running back. With Purdy they are able to throw the ball. Fidone is the real deal and will have a hard on to beat Iowa. There wide receivers are TALL...that worries me as you know they will game plan to pick on our CB's.

I also wonder how much is left in our tank after a hard fought game on Saturday with a quick turn around. I know Nebraska is in the same boat and had an away game Saturday. However, this is their chance to get to a bowl in front of a 100K fans. I wish I had a great feeling...special teams will be the difference I think. Nebraska has an 18 year old field goal kicker, and they have struggled with special teams all year. Interested to hear other thoughts on the game. GO HAWKS...
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It will be a one score game and I don't love having to play in Debbies Super Bowl every season, but it is what it is. They only solace I can give ya is Iowa is very very very good in one score games and Nebraska is very very very very bad in the them. Calling for snow and I think Iowa is just overall the tougher team.
 
I have no concerns about the Nebraska offense.

Yes, they appear to have a good defense. But, like Iowa....they have played a lot of bad Big 10 teams.
Which can make defenses look very good. I think there's good....and Iowa good. I mean, what....1 TD or less against what....14 of the last 15 opponents?
Unlike Iowa, Nebraska didn't win all but one of those games. And Iowa's one loss was one replay away from being a win.

ISU and and Northwestern are actually not too terribly behind Nebraska's defense, statistically.

Course this means nothing. Cause Nebraska has a lot to play for. No telling how this goes. The good news is for me, I do feel a little like the MLB team that clinched the division with a week to go. We'll see how I feel Friday when the game kicks off.
 
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As a fellow SW Iowan (originally any way), I share your passion for this game.

I am not as concerned about Purdy as you are. How many times did his big brother beat us while he was in Ames? Zero. I think Phil will have the defense prepared.

But I agree this is going to be a tough game. My hope is that our offense can continue to show progress and be able to run at lease some. We will need our defense to be top notch and our special teams need to be better than they were against Illinois. (I hope Drew Stevens is not in a late season slump).
 
It is going to be a very low scoring game. 14-10 or something like that. The Illinois offense scared me a lot more than Nebraska's offense. Just contain the Purdy scrambling, which Phil will do.

Iowa can win if we don't turn the ball over.
 
loesshillshawk said:
Having grown up in SW Iowa and having the Huskers crammed down your throat this is a huge game to me. Win and bragging rights are so good, lose and it is totally unbearable. Having watched all the Nebraska games this year there defense is greatly improved, but have they really been tested that much? The thing that scares me is that they blitz a TON. I just hope the staff comes up with some passing plays on first down and does not continue to run up the middle on early downs. I think they are susceptible to giving up some yards rushing if we are smart. Offensively the Purdy kid scares me to death. The team seems to be rallying around him, and he is that mobile QB who can also chuck it pretty good. The great equalizer will be if the running back that got hurt late is available on Friday. They are thin at running back. With Purdy they are able to throw the ball. Fidone is the real deal and will have a hard on to beat Iowa. There wide receivers are TALL...that worries me as you know they will game plan to pick on our CB's.

I also wonder how much is left in our tank after a hard fought game on Saturday with a quick turn around. I know Nebraska is in the same boat and had an away game Saturday. However, this is their chance to get to a bowl in front of a 100K fans. I wish I had a great feeling...special teams will be the difference I think. Nebraska has an 18 year old field goal kicker, and they have struggled with special teams all year. Interested to hear other thoughts on the game. GO HAWKS...
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You are scared of Purdy? Really? I believe Iowa will see more than 1 Nebraska QB
 
ChosenChildren said:
Iowa can win if we don't turn the ball over.
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Almost every single game of football at any level comes down to this.

The team that wins the turnover margin wins 70% of the time. No stat (other than points) even comes close to predicting wins and losses as turnover margin. Not even in the same solar system.

If your TO mgn is +1 your chances of winning a ballgame are terrible at best statistically, and at +2 or higher you are looking at almost a guaranteed loss.
 
I see that the Huskers are a1 point favorite now. Iowa had been a 2 point favorite. There's always an under current that their history trumps any and all success other teams have against them. When their past AD said he had to get a different coach because Nebraska should not be losing to Iowa that brought it into the open. Every Iowa player needs to know that.
 
Fryowa said:
Almost every single game of football at any level comes down to this.

The team that wins the turnover margin wins 70% of the time. No stat (other than points) even comes close to predicting wins and losses as turnover margin. Not even in the same solar system.

If your TO mgn is +1 your chances of winning a ballgame are terrible at best statistically, and at +2 or higher you are looking at almost a guaranteed loss.
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Fair

However, I would feel more comfortable about getting the ‘W’ if Sims or Haarberg were the quarterback.
 
trj said:
Fair

However, I would feel more comfortable about getting the ‘W’ if Sims or Haarberg were the quarterback.
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Obviously we want the crappiest QB to play, but TO margin is by far and away the greatest predictor of W/L in any particular game. So much so that anything else (from a purely statistical standpoint) is completely meaningless comparatively.

If we can force a couple picks and an INT ourselves and not cough it up at all, it’s pretty much in the bag. When it comes to nebraska, I don’t care if we win by 1 or win by 50. Just win.
 
eyekwah said:
I see that the Huskers are a1 point favorite now. Iowa had been a 2 point favorite. There's always an under current that their history trumps any and all success other teams have against them. When their past AD said he had to get a different coach because Nebraska should not be losing to Iowa that brought it into the open. Every Iowa player needs to know that.
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the Nebraska and ISU games will always be pick ‘ems no matter what Vegas says. Those are both 2nd tier opponents who look at Iowa as their Super Bowl and as such go into adrenaline mode against us. Like when you’re a 110 lb woman with your toddler stuck in a car accident you can all the sudden lift a Buick off the ground with your bare hands. That’s how nebraska and ISU feel when they play us.
 
In all honesty they should have beaten us every year from 2018-21. They know how to attack our defense. They just kept finding ways to screw it up.

2018: allow 4th and 8 completion to Hockensen late in regulation when a stop would have given them the ball one first down from field goal range late in regulation. Instead we win of FG on last play of the game.

2019: stupid penalty keeps our drive alive and we win on FG on the last play of the game.

2020: Martinez was driving for a potential game winning score when VanValkenberg strip sacks him and recovers the fumble.

2021: Had us absolutely on the ropes. Then a blocked punt, and Harris with the INT in the end zone late.
 
Northside Hawk said:
In all honesty they should have beaten us every year from 2018-21. They know how to attack our defense. They just kept finding ways to screw it up.

2018: allow 4th and 8 completion to Hockensen late in regulation when a stop would have given them the ball one first down from field goal range late in regulation. Instead we win of FG on last play of the game.

2019: stupid penalty keeps our drive alive and we win on FG on the last play of the game.

2020: Martinez was driving for a potential game winning score when VanValkenberg strip sacks him and recovers the fumble.

2021: Had us absolutely on the ropes. Then a blocked punt, and Harris with the INT in the end zone late.
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2018...what I remember is Iowa played ball control. But Nebby was explosive

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2019 this one was close

1700576778904.png
 
eyekwah said:
I see that the Huskers are a1 point favorite now. Iowa had been a 2 point favorite. There's always an under current that their history trumps any and all success other teams have against them. When their past AD said he had to get a different coach because Nebraska should not be losing to Iowa that brought it into the open. Every Iowa player needs to know that.
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Husker fans are excited, so their money is flowing.
Iowa has little, beyond bragging rights to play for, so the money is not flowing.
Seriously, there's a massive wave of support among Husker fans for their current head coach that I haven't seen in years. In my estimation, it's nearing a 45% approval rate. And they're ever so excited about their new QB.
 
Nebraska's defense in both personnel and scheme reminds me of Iowa State's D -- not uber talented, but solid across the board.
It was significant that Parker has a full game of film on their QB Purdy now, which shows that he is more dangerous with his legs than his arm. Parker will instruct Iowa's DLinemen to hold their lanes and keep Purdy in the pocket...force him to throw.
All the 'intangibles' in this game favor the Huskers: Iowa comes off their biggest emotional win in 2 years; KF extends the '24 hour celebration rule' -- perhaps for the first time in 25 years during a week that's not a 'bye' week, which sends a message; Iowa's team goals for the year included winning the West Division and BTen title -- Friday's game is irrelevant to both; Nebraska is fighting for bowl eligibility; AND the game is at home in front of millions of fans. Hard to imagine a game with more lopsided intangibles all favoring one team.
 
Northside Hawk said:
In all honesty they should have beaten us every year from 2018-21. They know how to attack our defense. They just kept finding ways to screw it up.

2018: allow 4th and 8 completion to Hockensen late in regulation when a stop would have given them the ball one first down from field goal range late in regulation. Instead we win of FG on last play of the game.

2019: stupid penalty keeps our drive alive and we win on FG on the last play of the game.

2020: Martinez was driving for a potential game winning score when VanValkenberg strip sacks him and recovers the fumble.

2021: Had us absolutely on the ropes. Then a blocked punt, and Harris with the INT in the end zone late.
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Theeeee greatest moment in all of nebraska - Iowa football came in the 2017 56-14 firebombing of memorial stadium when Howells, NE native Nathan Bazata tackled a scumbag nameless husker in the backfield, then proceeded to stand up and "throw the bones" at 90,000 inbred sand people.
 
Fryowa said:
Almost every single game of football at any level comes down to this.

The team that wins the turnover margin wins 70% of the time. No stat (other than points) even comes close to predicting wins and losses as turnover margin. Not even in the same solar system.

If your TO mgn is +1 your chances of winning a ballgame are terrible at best statistically, and at +2 or higher you are looking at almost a guaranteed loss.
Click to expand...

The only thing that bugs me about the turnover statement is that every single person, fan or media, blurts that out when reviewing every single game and act like they thought of something pertinent and unique. It literally is said hundreds of times prior to each game on Saturday.

It's the proverbial stating the obvious. I get that it's significant but it is stated in nauseam.
 
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