Lil Debbie and a bowl berth

[MelroseHawkins]

Obviously we want the crappiest QB to play, but TO margin is by far and away the greatest predictor of W/L in any particular game. So much so that anything else (from a purely statistical standpoint) is completely meaningless comparatively.

If we can force a couple picks and an INT ourselves and not cough it up at all, it’s pretty much in the bag. When it comes to nebraska, I don’t care if we win by 1 or win by 50. Just win.

I would say 3rd down conversion rate is pretty significant. That means a team is moving the chains and LOS and prob winning the TOP stat which all points to winning football. That one stat tells a complete story.

Now, a team like Iowa, with a stellar D and punter, has proven to be able to live with turnovers. But to your point, most teams can't and are not like Iowa in that regard. Obviously, again to your point, you don't want TO's but losing the TO battle by 1-2 can be overcome with a great D and punter.

Iowa hasn't taken the ball away that much this year compared to previous years I think.

Ok, I looked up the NCAA turnover stats for this season. This may support my thinking.

Iowa is only tied at #102 for turnovers gained with 12. TO lost Iowa is #61 with 15 lost. As a side note, a bonus I found is Nebby is dead last at 130th with 28 turnovers lost on the season!!

 

[HuckFinn]

Theeeee greatest moment in all of nebraska - Iowa football came in the 2017 56-14 firebombing of memorial stadium when Howells, NE native Nathan Bazata tackled a scumbag nameless husker in the backfield, then proceeded to stand up and "throw the bones" at 90,000 inbred sand people.

I was there. Wow.

 

[thedukeofearl]

All I can add is I sat in Kinnick and watched us blow a four-game winning streak and lose to these idiots last year.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Theeeee greatest moment in all of nebraska - Iowa football came in the 2017 56-14 firebombing of memorial stadium when Howells, NE native Nathan Bazata tackled a scumbag nameless husker in the backfield, then proceeded to stand up and "throw the bones" at 90,000 inbred sand people.

That whole game was one glorious moment, not to mention it was in the sixties that day (may have topped 70 in Lincoln)

They bounced Riley probably before that game ended (Bert got fired that day as well) The glorious Scott Frost era was about to commence.

I remember Bert getting fired because we were in Madison that day, first for one of those boring escape rooms that were trendy that fall, then for a Badger volleyball game that our high school coach took the four senior players and their parents to. The locals at the volleyball game were on top of the breaking Bret news.

In between we were able to sneak in dinner and catch the second half of football game.

 

[Fryowa]

I would say 3rd down conversion rate is pretty significant. That means a team is moving the chains and LOS and prob winning the TOP stat which all points to winning football. That one stat tells a complete story.

Now, a team like Iowa, with a stellar D and punter, has proven to be able to live with turnovers. But to your point, most teams can't and are not like Iowa in that regard. Obviously, again to your point, you don't want TO's but losing the TO battle by 1-2 can be overcome with a great D and punter.

Iowa hasn't taken the ball away that much this year compared to previous years I think.

Ok, I looked up the NCAA turnover stats for this season. This may support my thinking.

Iowa is only tied at #102 for turnovers gained with 12. TO lost Iowa is #61 with 15 lost. As a side note, a bonus I found is Nebby is dead last at 130th with 28 turnovers lost on the season!!

There was an actual academic study done showing that positive TO margin is correlated with 70% winning percentage. They looked at a ridiculous number of other stats and none of them came anywhere close. I couldn’t care less about the causation, the correlation is so 1) strong and 2) independent of other measures that interceptions and forcing fumbles are just as important (if not more so) than any other factor in the game.

 

[hawkinn3]

On the flip side, they beat us and give that chud a 10 year deal and have to pay his buyout in 2 years. We still win the west so whatever.

 

[kicker22]

Nebraska's defense in both personnel and scheme reminds me of Iowa State's D -- not uber talented, but solid across the board.
It was significant that Parker has a full game of film on their QB Purdy now, which shows that he is more dangerous with his legs than his arm. Parker will instruct Iowa's DLinemen to hold their lanes and keep Purdy in the pocket...force him to throw.
All the 'intangibles' in this game favor the Huskers: Iowa comes off their biggest emotional win in 2 years; KF extends the '24 hour celebration rule' -- perhaps for the first time in 25 years during a week that's not a 'bye' week, which sends a message; Iowa's team goals for the year included winning the West Division and BTen title -- Friday's game is irrelevant to both; Nebraska is fighting for bowl eligibility; AND the game is at home in front of millions of fans. Hard to imagine a game with more lopsided intangibles all favoring one team.

While you're not wrong I can't think of any better way for Iowa's regular season to end then winning a 10th game and knocking Nebby out of a bowl birth and avenge last years loss. We can say all the intangibles are favoring one team, but I'm sure the Hawks can find some things to play for and come up with some extra motivation going into Friday's game.

 

[cecilB]

In all honesty they should have beaten us every year from 2018-21. They know how to attack our defense. They just kept finding ways to screw it up.

2018: allow 4th and 8 completion to Hockensen late in regulation when a stop would have given them the ball one first down from field goal range late in regulation. Instead we win of FG on last play of the game.

2019: stupid penalty keeps our drive alive and we win on FG on the last play of the game.

2020: Martinez was driving for a potential game winning score when VanValkenberg strip sacks him and recovers the fumble.

2021: Had us absolutely on the ropes. Then a blocked punt, and Harris with the INT in the end zone late.

each of those games had Iowa in full control for most(except 2021 when Iowa clawed back)…did those parts count? Nebraska had some entertaining and frantic comebacks, but that weird stat of Iowa winning if ever up by 8…that was a constant in the games you’re retroactively hyperventilating over

 

[cecilB]

Theeeee greatest moment in all of nebraska - Iowa football came in the 2017 56-14 firebombing of memorial stadium when Howells, NE native Nathan Bazata tackled a scumbag nameless husker in the backfield, then proceeded to stand up and "throw the bones" at 90,000 inbred sand people.

2019 was interesting when Stanley started a drive with 27 seconds left from his own 20ish, and yet enough time for Duncan nailed a mid range fg

 

[cecilB]

Nebraska's defense in both personnel and scheme reminds me of Iowa State's D -- not uber talented, but solid across the board.
It was significant that Parker has a full game of film on their QB Purdy now, which shows that he is more dangerous with his legs than his arm. Parker will instruct Iowa's DLinemen to hold their lanes and keep Purdy in the pocket...force him to throw.
All the 'intangibles' in this game favor the Huskers: Iowa comes off their biggest emotional win in 2 years; KF extends the '24 hour celebration rule' -- perhaps for the first time in 25 years during a week that's not a 'bye' week, which sends a message; Iowa's team goals for the year included winning the West Division and BTen title -- Friday's game is irrelevant to both; Nebraska is fighting for bowl eligibility; AND the game is at home in front of millions of fans. Hard to imagine a game with more lopsided intangibles all favoring one team.

Well, there is the intangible of hidden yds gained through a punter, and success in tight games. Do they count

 

[Elwood]

Iowa has nothing to play for winning the west already. Nebby has everything to play for, they are dying for a bowl game. They are playing at home in bad weather. The running game will decide it. Their QB can run like the wind. We have a slow moving statue at QB. They will blitz all day and have success. Iowa found a way to lose to a bad Nebby team last year at home. We had 7 straight wins against them. I am also a SW Iowa guy living in Nebraska now and those were the sweetest 7 wins I ever watched! I don't think Iowa has a chance in hell in the championship game against the east winner. Let's hope for a beatable bowl opponent. That being said, the tigerhawk flag will be flying on the front of my house Friday, like every game day. Nebby sucks!

 

[99topdawg]

One of Nebraska's top tacklers, LB Nick Henrich, tore his ACL on Saturday against Wisconsin. He led the team in tackles 2 years ago against us. Torn ACL ended his season last year as well. Hate Nebby but feel bad for him.

 

[NCHawker]

Since the Penn State game I approached every Iowa game expecting Iowa to lose. I was dismayed and pleased each week. As ILL game approached I began to believe. That 2nd half was hard on my nerves.

I guess now I know what to expect. Not much offense and opportunities to win in the margins ... field position, special teams, turnovers. Unlikely to see big plays.

I think given the cold weather you want them fielding the ball on punts and kick offs...this could give opportunities for T/Os.

Who knows what will happen, that's why I love the anticipation and the game...each game, each play makes history because its new and hasn't happened before.

 

[BigD]

It will be a one score game and I don't love having to play in Debbies Super Bowl every season, but it is what it is. They only solace I can give ya is Iowa is very very very good in one score games and Nebraska is very very very very bad in the them. Calling for snow and I think Iowa is just overall the tougher team.

Snow slows down the offense and ours can’t go any slower= benefit Iowa.