The following is too long, don't read it. I just wanted to get some of my thoughts organized and out of my head so I can start focusing on other things.
I haven't really commented at all on this conversation because I feel it is much more nuanced than a discussion board could ever do justice to. However, something has been bothering me about this decision and I haven't quite been able to figure out how to articulate it. I think I might finally have it straightened out in my head, and I will try to explain myself below in 3 points.
My first point is that I think we are taking a flawed view of risk.
@RobHowe brought up the case of Jaylon Smith, and how he lost about $30 million in guaranteed money on his first contract. However, he had an insurance policy for $9 million had he never been able to play at all. If someone like Ben Niemann last year, or Keegan Render or Ross Reynolds this year, gets hurt, no NFL team will take a chance on them with so many other options out there (the Drew Ott and Jake Duzey scenarios pretty much prove this). They do not have the current status to take out such a policy. So if Niemann gets hurt in the bowl game last year, he loses this year's $500,000 salary, as well as future years.
If Fant is projected 1st round, let's assume he could get a $5 million policy. Who is risking more, someone with a guaranteed $5 million but with a potential for $10-20 million, or someone with nothing guaranteed who could possibly earn a million or more (Niemann's likely NFL salary) if everything breaks right? From an absolute sense Fant is obviously risking more, but there is a much bigger functional difference between $0 and $1.5 million than between $5 million and $20 million.
Or what about someone with no draft status at all, such as a Dalton Ferguson? If he gets McKenzie Miltoned and suffers long-term disability without any insurance fallback, is not that a risk? But such an injury is incredibly unlikely you say. So is a bowl-game injury which affects draft status.
My second point relates to something
@PCHawk brought up: if the Bowl game is too much of a risk, why play in the last few games? Fant had over 100 yards receiving at Indiana, probably his best game of the year. Why not pack it in there (NFL teams had seen what he had to offer) and protect himself? Many will argue there are 2 obvious reasons why he did not, but I think they are both flawed.
- The first argument will be that the Hawks still had something to play for at that point. But that argument is implying that the only thing meaningful about sports is winning championships, and hence everyone not winning championships is just wasting their time. That is an incredibly depressing view of sports, and not at all consistent with my experiences. I have been on teams that had lots of success and been on teams that struggled greatly. I got a ton from each experience.
- The second argument would be that bailing in the middle of the season would be held against a player because it would be seen as quitting on your team. But you cannot make that argument without also saying bailing on the bowl game is quitting on your team, it is just a difference of degrees (he is only quitting on the team 1/7th as much as if he had stopped after Indiana)
I guess the second point comes down to the question: is it sports, or is it business? Team sports have always meant more than just money, they have been about camaraderie, shared purpose, and sacrifice. When that gets placed in an environment where $millions are at stake, of course things change. But deep down we need to believe that this is about more than players positioning themselves for a future NFL career. We have to believe these players care for one another, and that they care about the program. If those beliefs erode, college football will go the way of professional boxing sooner rather than later.
My third and final point is that there is a difference between the smart choice and the inspiring choice. The smart choice is to look at what you personally stand to lose, and to make the choice that puts your personal interests first. The right to make such a choice is absolutely fundamental and should never be taken away. But some don't prioritize what they stand to lose, instead they think about what they can do for others. If not for such people, we would not have firefighters, military personnel, etc.. To keep it within the realm of sports (none of these guys is sacrificing to the degree of a military service-person), it is why CJ Beathard insisted on playing in the 2nd half of a bowl game with dwindling prospects; he was putting himself at risk, but he wanted to give everything he had for the team.
Or think about it this way. Fant decides to skip the bowl game, and his teammates are cool with it. He sounds like a great young man, I am sure he is a great friend, they all understand and they wish the best for him. But what if he had instead told them, "I don't care about the risk, I love playing with you SOBs so much, there is no way I am going to miss my last chance to do so." Would his teammates have said, "I don't think that is smart, you need to reconsider." Not a chance. They would have said, "Hell yeah! I am going to ride or die with this MFer, let's go kick some SEC ass!"
To sum up this long, rambling mess, Fant's decision is logical and well within his rights. We can look back fondly on his Hawkeye career (or perhaps frustratingly as we think about potential misuse this season and think what might have been), and thank him for being part of the program. But what he is risking is not necessarily greater than what his teammates risk. While some may argue he had nothing to gain from playing in the bowl, that argument leads to a slippery slope of why compete at all once you are bankable. This not only flies in the face of all we believe about team sports, but it has a logical conclusion of the demise of college football. And while his choice may have been the smart one (i.e. "the Ruddock checkdown"), it was not the inspiring one (i.e "the CJ Beathard devil-may-care bomb"). If everyone only made decisions based upon their own personal interests, the concept of team would cease to exist.
This piece needs a good editor, the 2nd and 3rd points are inter-related, and I am sure this could be cut down substantially. But I have wasted enough time, need to get to work.