Katz says he thinks Iowa

[MiniMoeHawk]

Sure, here are my thoughts....

1. Andy Katz loves him some Alford
2. Ever since Alford was forced out, Katz has always taken it upon himself to disparage Iowa.
3. So given #1 & #2, it doesn't surprise me that Andy said what he said.

This -- back before Iowa's meltdown Katz had Iowa 8-10 spots lower than every other ESPN power ranker

 

[nationalchamps]

Katz is a tool, just like his good buddy, the gellyman.

 

[gordonearl]

Lunardi has us in. I guess he could be wrong,but it seldom happens.

 

[homes]

Needs 1 win if not 2 in BTT.
Thoughts?

I think Katz needs 1, if not 2, accurate predictions before I believe anything he says.

 

[Tschroeder13]

I dont understand why people say Iowa is on the bubble and need wins. The committee has said games are all equally evaluated so games in November mean just as much as games in February and March. There is no looking at the last 10 game anymore.
So lets look at Iowa's resume. 20-11(9-9) which is the same as last year but Iowa's resume is better when you look beyond the record. First look at the wins, Michigan win is probably better than any win Iowa had last year, at Ohio State is better than any road win last year, besting Xavier on a neutral court is a nice win, hell even the Minnesota and UTEP wins carry some weight.
Now lets look at the losses, Indiana and Illinois are the worst losses but both teams are in the top 100 RPI, last year the worst losses were Nebraska and Va Tech both in the 100's for RPI. So that makes the resume better.
And finally lets look at everything as a whole, RPI of 39 according to ESPN, a whole 30-40 spots better than last year! So if Iowa is 20-11 (9-9) with an RPI of 39 that is a tournament team with a couple great wins, some nice wins and no losses to teams worse than RPI of 100, which all the bubble teams have. Taking the hawkeye goggles off that is a tourney resume.

Best post and most logic i've seen all day,

 

[StatelineHawk]

Katz doesn't really bother me. Sound like Clone fans and their conspiracies. This from someone who also pulls for ISU.

 

[Seth53]

This thread, unfortunately, attests to Iowa's fall from national grace the last six games.

Three weeks ago, it was...."baby, we're good enough for a #3 NCAA seed. Watch out world....here we come. We're back."
Today it's...."I hope we beat NW and/or don't embarrass ourselves in the NCAA."

Quite frankly, I see a tailspin versus a mild losing streak. Whatever 'mojo' we had earlier is gone I fear.

Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Wassabbe]

Iowa is not a lock. They look like they are in, but if they lose to Northwestern their RPI will continue to plummet. Than it depends on what happens with other teams in their conference tournament. Other teams could pass Iowa.

Iowa beats Northwestern (and we will win by 15+) and Iowa is a lock.

 

[volhawk50]

Not this again...

The NCAA committee looks at the entire season. Long debunked are the myths of "hot teams down the stretch" getting in ahead of better teams. Even on the BTN selection show the former head of the tournament selection committee said that it simply is not true. November wins are every bit as important as March wins.

Maybe if Iowa lost to Northwestern on Thursday and 5 teams win their conference tourneys who wouldn't have made it in as an at-large (think Purdue winning the BTT, Boston College winning the ACC tournament, Texas Tech winning the Big 12 Tournament, Butler winning the Big East Tournament, and Temple winning the American Tournament). If all those things happened maybe you could consider Iowa a bubble team that might not get in.

Iowa is in the NCAA tournament...the end.

That myth was certainly debunked last year when Minnesota and Illinois found the tournament and Iowa was in the NIT.

 

[ssckelley]

I would be hot if Iowa got left out of the tournament. Last year it was because Iowa had a weak schedule (both non and conf) and had no big wins. This year Iowa has played a much tougher conference schedule, has several big wins, and finished .500 in a tough conference.

It does not matter what happens tomorrow, Iowa is in.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Iowa is not a lock. They look like they are in, but if they lose to Northwestern their RPI will continue to plummet. Than it depends on what happens with other teams in their conference tournament. Other teams could pass Iowa.

Iowa beats Northwestern (and we will win by 15+) and Iowa is a lock.

Iowa may not be a 100% lock, but I think they are a 99% lock. I took some time yesterday to look at the resumes of Lunardi's bubble teams, and Iowa's resume is better than most, with either more wins over Top 50 opponents and/or fewer losses outside of the Top 100. Most teams on the bubble either have just 1 or 2 Top 50 wins and/or 2-3 losses outside of the Top 100.

Just going by memory, but I think Iowa has FIVE Top 50 wins and ZERO losses outside the Top 100. As of this moment, Iowa is solidly IN without any shadow of a doubt.

IMO the only way Iowa doesn't make it is if they lose to Northwestern AND quite a few extra bids are taken by conference tournament winners who would not otherwise have been selected at-large. Usually a couple of extra spots get taken, but I don't see it getting so nuts where 5-6 bubble teams get pushed off the edge because of this.

But I agree - beat NW that will officially seal the deal.

 

[HomerChampless]

Should I talk about the advantages of going deep in the NIT compared to losing in the first rounds of the NCAA? Well at least if you're in the NCAA, you have a chance of winning the NCAA tournament and being the national champion. Hawks need to get HOT!..

Although it's much easier to find your hotness in the NIT rather than the NCAA... and maybe being a preseason top 20 pick next season where its much easier to make the next season's NCAA tournament starting from the top rather than farther down (also Iowa can schedule more obliging stronger opponents).

 

[ssckelley]

Iowa may not be a 100% lock, but I think they are a 99% lock. I took some time yesterday to look at the resumes of Lunardi's bubble teams, and Iowa's resume is better than most, with either more wins over Top 50 opponents and/or fewer losses outside of the Top 100. Most teams on the bubble either have just 1 or 2 Top 50 wins and/or 2-3 losses outside of the Top 100.

Just going by memory, but I think Iowa has FIVE Top 50 wins and ZERO losses outside the Top 100. As of this moment, Iowa is solidly IN without any shadow of a doubt.

IMO the only way Iowa doesn't make it is if they lose to Northwestern AND quite a few extra bids are taken by conference tournament winners who would not otherwise have been selected at-large. Usually a couple of extra spots get taken, but I don't see it getting so nuts where 5-6 bubble teams get pushed off the edge because of this.

But I agree - beat NW that will officially seal the deal.

If everyone that keeps chirping Iowa is on the bubble would do this no one with a decent basketball IQ would be agreeing with Katz. Since the field has been expanded to 68 teams there is a lot of BAD on the bubble, teams that a few years ago would be headed to the NIT. Lunardi has Iowa as a 8 seed, that is not anywhere close to the bubble and bracketologists rarely miss on teams that are a lock for the tournament, they may miss on seeding and the last few schools getting in.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

If everyone that keeps chirping Iowa is on the bubble would do this no one with a decent basketball IQ would be agreeing with Katz. Since the field has been expanded to 68 teams there is a lot of BAD on the bubble, teams that a few years ago would be headed to the NIT. Lunardi has Iowa as a 8 seed, that is not anywhere close to the bubble and bracketologists rarely miss on teams that are a lock for the tournament, they may miss on seeding and the last few schools getting in.

From what I remember seeing yesterday, the only bubble teams with resumes at all close to Iowa's are Stanford and St. Joe's, and Lunardi has both of those teams in as well. Stanford's resume looks VERY similar to Iowa's, but St. Joe's has an overall SOS something like 50 spots lower than Iowa.

Out of the other bubble teams, sure, there are some teams who also have 4-5 Top 50 wins, but those teams also have a few losses to teams around 150 in the RPI. Iowa's worst loss is @Indiana, who is around 80th. Iowa has just 2 losses outside the Top 50, and none outside the Top 100.

Otherwise, there are bubble teams like Pitt who only have 1 or 2 Top 50 wins. That's pretty "meh".

Iowa can absorb a loss to NW and still would stack up favorably compared to most of the bubble teams. Iowa is in.

 

[HomerChampless]

Another advantage of playing in the NIT: more home games!

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Should I talk about the advantages of going deep in the NIT compared to losing in the first rounds of the NCAA? Well at least if you're in the NCAA, you have a chance of winning the NCAA tournament and being the national champion. Hawks need to get HOT!..

Although it's much easier to find your hotness in the NIT rather than the NCAA... and maybe being a preseason top 20 pick next season where its much easier to make the next season's NCAA tournament starting from the top rather than farther down (also Iowa can schedule more obliging stronger opponents).

Fair enough, but Iowa did this last year. I've had enough of the NIT! It's time to take that next step.

My bigger concern right now is not whether Iowa makes the NCAA Tournament - NIT bids are moot point right now IMO. I'm more worried about how Iowa is playing. It needs to find it's mojo - quickly.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Another advantage of playing in the NIT: more home games!

I might also point out that if Iowa keeps playing the way it's been, it could also just as easily lose in the first round of the NIT as it could the first round of the NCAA's.. Bad teams do not make the NIT these days. It's often full of bubble teams that were left out of the big dance.

 

[HomerChampless]

You liked Alfraud's teams, those one and done NCAA Iowa teams? How about their progression, huh?

 

[1977Hawkeye]

You liked Alfraud's teams, those one and done NCAA Iowa teams? How about their progression, huh?

The Fraud lost in the first round of the NIT a couple times, too. A lot of good that did.

 

[HomerChampless]

IMO, it's conclusive: losing in the first round of the NCAA has more of a debilitating effect on recruiting than going national in NY City at the NIT... Of course, playing style has something to do with it, too. Why Wisky will never recruit well (and, IMO, why Wisky is starting to open things up at bit).