First off ... the '09 game against Michigan has little impact on how we'll fare against them in '10 or how they'll fare against us.
The primary positive I see for Michigan is that they have a bunch of quality LB and safety types ... and that is arguably the driving reason why they're moving to a 3-3-5. While I'm still not 100% sold on how they'll fare in coverage given the inexperience that they have in the secondary ... they're certainly not lacking in talent.
The big question is how well the guys will adjust to the new system and whether they can have enough success bringing heat in order to compensate for any deficiencies they might have on the DL.
The one thing that kind of blows my mind with regard to those who worry about how Iowa matches up against Michigan is that:
1. Iowa's D game-planned to take away Forcier, not Denard Robinson. While Robinson did have success moving the ball against Iowa ... every last yard was earned and they had to burn up too much clock in the process. Oh, and by the way, the D was successful in its game-plan against Forcier.
2. Many Iowa fans seem to forget that Norm Parker will have roughly 2 weeks to get the Iowa D prepped to face a Denard Robinson led Michigan squad. What's to say that the Iowa D won't have success in its game-plan against Robinson?
3. Mesko was a HUGE weapon for Michigan. His leg alone kept the game a lot closer than it arguably should have been. Without Mesko, Iowa potentially owns a significant advantage in the field-position battle.
4. In '09, Bulaga had to face off against Graham in only his second week back from his thyroid-related absence. If the Iowa OL can manage to remain healthy, then it's a likely event that the unit will have gelled by the 7th week of the season. In '10, I like the match-up of a healthy Iowa OL in the 7th week of the season against a 3-man front.
5. In '09, Minor and a pretty veteran Michigan OL pitted up against 5- and 6-man defensive fronts and managed to have success running the ball. All the same, the Michigan O only put up 319 yards on the Iowa D ... and, mind you, that was only Prater's 3rd game starting and the Iowa DL wasn't nearly as experienced then as it is now.
6. Many Iowa fans simply ignored HOW Michigan managed to score when they did. One score was on a pick six. Michigan's longest TD scoring drive was a 12 play 72 yard drive and required them to convert on a 4th and 4. Michigan's other two scoring drives benefitted from rather favorable field position ... namely, a 10 play 57 yard TD drive and a 11 play 59 yard TD drive. Not only does this imply that the Iowa D forced Michigan to earn every point ... but it also indicates that field position also played a crucial role in Michigan remaining in the game.
7. I already mentioned the fact that Michigan benefitted from Mesko. However, in 2010, they won't have Mesko AND Iowa will still have a strong D and Donahue at P. Furthermore, if Mullings can win the kick-off job ... then that will imply that Iowa's kick-off coverage game will get a big boost too. In fact, Mullings big leg could potentially end up being a significant advantage!
8. Iowa's O played a poor game against the '09 Michigan D and yet still scored 30 points and 367 yards. Given the juggling on the O and the fact that Iowa featured FR RBs ... and the fact that Michigan was going out of its way to stop the run ... there's little surprise that the Hawks only managed 84 yards on the ground. A more interesting question is whether they can duplicate that success without Graham ... and if they can duplicated it against Iowa's more experienced RBs, and, ideally, against a healthy Iowa OL!
As for Jon being bullish about Michigan ... I would say that all of the following game are AT BEST 50-50 for the Wolverines:
- home vs UConn: UConn is a decent squad ... not a gimme Wolverine victory
- @ Notre Dame: I'm not sold on either squad ... however, how Cinci's D played despite losing so many starters after '08 suggests to me that Kelly places a requisite strong emphasis on D
- @ Indiana: No I'm not joking. The game strikes me as a shootout on O. I think that the Hoosiers may have the game circled after basically giving the game away in '09.
- home vs MSU: In this game anything goes. The big question in the game will likely end up being MSU's OL play. If MSU can get their running game going ... I see the Spartans likely winning this game (again)!
- home vs Iowa: Emotionally spent after the MSU game and then having to play another tough and physical opponent ... this spells a likely Iowa victory in my book.
- @ PSU: Even with 2 weeks to prepare for the Nits ... the PSU D will likely be operating at 100% by that juncture in the season. Just as long as the PSU QB can adequately manage the game ... I see a likely PSU victory.
- @ Purdue: If Purdue has success replacing starters on the OL and at DB, then the match-ups here are pretty even. Otherwise, I can actually understand Michigan owning the advantage here.
- home vs Wisky: Wisky's O is built to absolutely kill a 3-3-5 D ... especially considering that their OL will be exceptionally experienced by then. The big question will be how well Wisky's D can fare against the Michigan O. My impression is that they'll be able to fare well enough ... thus, I see a likely Wisconsin victory.
- @ tOSU: The rivalry nature of the game could give them a fighting chance ... however, that is simply being too generous. My gut says that tOSU atones for letting the game be too close in '09.
If you throw in reasonable probabilities for the aforementioned games ... you pretty much automatically arrive at the conclusion that 5- or 6-loss seasons are arguably the most likely scenarios. Is it bullish to conclude that they'll go bowling with such a mediocre record? However, given the standard deviations as they likely are ... it's still possible that they surprise with an 8-4 season ... or even manage to miss out on the bowls ... AGAIN! I honestly don't know which direction the probabilities are biased .... however, I wouldn't be shocked by either outcome.
