Just went through my first set of Big Ten FB Predictions

[whammer33024]

michigan has been running the spread for what? 2 or 3 years? they're cancelled
ohio state is ohio state and really shouldn't be allowed in this conversation

 

[EastLosRandy]

Ops, I can't forget Minnesota. They are currently using a traditional, run-first offense. Do you see a trend??

Minnesota ran a spread in 2008...

 

[EastLosRandy]

I think Michigan is in a lot of trouble. Lotta people predicted they would rebound last year. (RR's second year, players know the system better, he's got the QBs he wants, blah blah blah) They were 1-7 in the conference last year, with the one win being a lucky, last-minute nail-biter against a Hoosier squad that outgained them by 100 yards. They lost their best guys in all three phases to graduation. (Minor, Graham, and you don't mess with the Zoltan)

UConn can beat them. ND is a toss. Indy will give them fits. MSU will beat them.

And so will Iowa.

 

[imported_ankle23]

Bingo. Michigan and Arizona also got pick 6's that made the games closer than they should have been. Michigan never had the ball past midfield when it was a one possesion game.

One thing the Deacer always says about road games is that you have to pack a defense. Iowa has a pretty ******* good defense.

'deacer' said that about the game?? gotta love his insight into the game......

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Ok, does Ball State use the spread?

Here are just a few examples for ya homer: Michigan, Purdue, (Purdue has traditionally been a thorn in the side of Iowa ever since Tiller took over), Ohio State (their's is more of a running spread), NORTWESTERN, and Indiana (the pistol).

Not Wisconsin. Not Michigan State. Not Penn State. Ops, I can't forget Minnesota. They are currently using a traditional, run-first offense. Do you see a trend??

- Michigan's O gave Iowa problems? Really? You're talking about the same O that required a 4th down conversion to get a critical score. You're talking about an O that was stalled for pretty much every drive except 3?

- Indiana is maybe the best example ... their passing game did give us some problems. However, how much of their success in the recent game was the result of Iowa turnovers? Even then, Indiana chalked up what ... 306 yards?

- Northwestern? Really? You're talking about a Northwestern squad that only was able to chalk up 239 yards against Iowa's D?

- Also, you aren't familiar with Os if you refer to tOSU as using the "spread." They implement a pro-set O with spread-elements worked into it. One of their TDs was off of the wildcat ... and that is power football, not the spread.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Ok, does Ball State use the spread?

Here are just a few examples for ya homer: Michigan, Purdue, (Purdue has traditionally been a thorn in the side of Iowa ever since Tiller took over), Ohio State (their's is more of a running spread), NORTWESTERN, and Indiana (the pistol).

Not Wisconsin. Not Michigan State. Not Penn State. Ops, I can't forget Minnesota. They are currently using a traditional, run-first offense. Do you see a trend??

Also, the team that moved the ball the best against Iowa was UNI ... and they feature a multiple O ... not simply a spread O. Pretty much nobody had too much success moving the ball on Iowa in '09. Heck, tOSU in the 2nd half and Wisky in the first half ... both teams that are more on the "conventional" side had more luck for streaks of the game than almost any other "types" of Os.

In 2008, the two teams that moved the ball with the greatest level of success were Wisconsin and Northwestern. That gives us one conventional team and one spread team.

As you see, at least in the last 2 seasons, Iowa has not an instance where a spread team fared a lot better than a conventional O.

 

[lightning1]

I've posted this many times before: Parker's defense doesn't do well against the spread. Is Bowling Green a spread offense? If yes, Iowa's offense better be prepared to outscore them if they want to win.

Its not the spread offense that gives Iowa defenses trouble. Its QBs that can run and pass equally well. Since most of those QBs play in spread style offenses, it appears that Iowa has trouble with the spread.
Ben Rothlesburger @ Miami- shut down
Texas Tech in the early Leach years- shut down.
Norm is 5-3 against Joe tiller's Pur teams. I'd hardly call that evidence to support your theory.
If you took the time to research the record books, you might be surprised about Norm's record against the spread.

 

[cabse5]

Yes, light. The light is beginning to come on, no? Parker's defense is a gap defense which means players have specific responsibilities to control certain gaps of the line of scrimmage. Safeties spend a lot of time in run support. All this is designed to stop the running game first.

BTW didn't D Clark, the Penn State quarterback, run the ball more than most "traditional" quarterbacks?

Maybe what I should have said is Parker's defense has a hard time handling any non-traditional offense-any offense that isn't-run first. I mentioned the spread because most non-traditional college offenses trend towards the spread offense. The Wildcat is rarely used. Who wants to get their star killed?

Here's another point I wanted to make: a majority of offenses in the Big Ten are currently non-traditional offenses (I don't know what kind of offense the Illini will run) so Parker's defense will become less and less effective in the Big Ten. Less effective in two ways: giving up more points and yards and limiting the Iowa offense to field time.

Iowa's defense manhandled Georgia Tech because they were disciplined in their handling of run gap responsibilties.

 

[whammer33024]

so by your logic, iowa's defense was bad last year since they faced non-traditional defenses last season?

your statements and logic confuse me

 

[cabse5]

Whammer, last year, in which games was Iowa's defense not dominant? UNI, (not Iowa State- too many turnovers), Arkansas State, not Wisconsin, not Penn State, Michigan, not Michigan State (except for that last hokey drive, pass), Indiana, Ohio State not Minnesota, not Georgia Tech. I'm missing some.

Oh, Yes, NORTHWESTERN. The score was close last year because Northwestern's quarterback played with a hampering injury. I figured that Northwestern lineman hurt Stanzi to make the game closer. When was the last time Iowa beat Nortwestern?

Anyway, there is a trend here. An even worse trend is rising: Iowa's defense is not as dominant as it once was.

Did Arkansas State play Iowa last year?

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Yes, light. The light is beginning to come on, no? Parker's defense is a gap defense which means players have specific responsibilities to control certain gaps of the line of scrimmage. Safeties spend a lot of time in run support. All this is designed to stop the running game first.

BTW didn't D Clark, the Penn State quarterback, run the ball more than most "traditional" quarterbacks?

Maybe what I should have said is Parker's defense has a hard time handling any non-traditional offense-any offense that isn't-run first. I mentioned the spread because most non-traditional college offenses trend towards the spread offense. The Wildcat is rarely used. Who wants to get their star killed?

Here's another point I wanted to make: a majority of offenses in the Big Ten are currently non-traditional offenses (I don't know what kind of offense the Illini will run) so Parker's defense will become less and less effective in the Big Ten. Less effective in two ways: giving up more points and yards and limiting the Iowa offense to field time.

Iowa's defense manhandled Georgia Tech because they were disciplined in their handling of run gap responsibilties.

What precisely is "non-traditional?" What a vaguely defined term.

Schematically, here is the "truth:"

Iowa's D has difficulty against teams that achieves ALL of the following:

- A balanced O that can BOTH run the ball and pass the ball well. And, if the opposing team isn't particularly good at running the ball, then they must supplement the running game with a highly precise and effective short passing game.

- A team that can spread the box out laterally and force our 3rd LB to be out in coverage. This means that the passing threat is legit. However, to hurt Iowa, the key is to have success with the run-option when the LBs are spread out wide.

- A team that features an OL that can adequately slow Iowa's pass rush OR a mobile QB who can force the Iowa D to place a premium on contain.

- A team that has a WR who is either VERY adept at finding holes in our zone, OR, for teams that rely heavily upon a short-yardage "timing" passing game, a WR who can beat our press coverage.


FIRST OFF ... the above list prescribes an O that would have success moving the ball on ANY D! Thus, it wouldn't just be a Norm Parker D that would have trouble handling such an O. Secondly, in the college game, it takes tremendous execution for a team to be able to satisfy all of the above criteria. The fact of the matter is that MOST Os simply have trouble executing at such a level. Thus, a disciplined D like Iowa's then exploits their oppositions mistakes. Lastly, Iowa's D sometimes suffers from depth issues with the personnel ... and when such issues arise some of the above "bullet points" are no longer valid. For instance, in the past, Iowa's secondary has been more exploitable on pass D. However, more recently, that simply has not been the case. And the past issues on pass D had very little to do with scheme ... and everything to do with personnel and depth.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Whammer, last year, in which games was Iowa's defense not dominant? UNI, (not Iowa State- too many turnovers), Arkansas State, not Wisconsin, not Penn State, Michigan, not Michigan State (except for that last hokey drive, pass), Indiana, Ohio State not Minnesota, not Georgia Tech. I'm missing some.

Oh, Yes, NORTHWESTERN. The score was close last year because Northwestern's quarterback played with a hampering injury. I figured that Northwestern lineman hurt Stanzi to make the game closer. When was the last time Iowa beat Nortwestern?

Anyway, there is a trend here. An even worse trend is rising: Iowa's defense is not as dominant as it once was.

Did Arkansas State play Iowa last year?

It strikes me that Iowa's D played good ball against Northwestern and Arkansas State. Against Northwestern, was it not the green play of Vandenberg that hurt the squad after Stanzi went down? After all, Iowa was up 10-0 prior to the huge turnaround that was Stanzi's injury.

As for the AState game, Iowa was exploitable to some degree in the pass game ... and that was due to Prater being out. However, all the same, AState had 1 score on O through the first 3 quarters of the game. And, in the 4th quarter, AState had to take some big risks in their lone scoring drive in order to make the game close. While it was too bad that the Iowa D couldn't get a big stop on 3rd down ... it still shows how hard the AState O had to work in order get the score ... facing a 3rd and 10, a 3rd and 7, a 3rd and 27, and a 3rd and 9 ALL in their final scoring drive! When an O has to work so hard to score ... that is a sign that the D is doing A LOT of things RIGHT!

Besides, if you don't recall, what inspired that final AState drive was hope. And what provided the AState squad with that hope? You nailed it if you said Stanzi's pick 6. That was a HUGE 14 point turnaround for AState. Had Iowa ended up scoring in the drive instead ... that would have sealed the game as a blow-out.

 

[whammer33024]

or was the northwestern score close because ricky stanzi became crippled?

17 points is "struggling" against an offense? and i believe 6 of those points came on the previously mentioned stanzi injury.

yup, norm parker has a lot of work to do because his defense is awful

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Also, if you were to look at the land scape of the Big 10 just a few years ago, you would have noticed that EVEN MORE teams featured "non-traditional" Os ... or, at least, Os that implemented plenty of non-traditional wrinkles. Just a few years ago, Minnesota was trying to implement a variant-spread O and Illinois implemented a pro-set O that implemented a lot of zone-read and triple-option elements. Heck, under their prior coach, Michigan State was a bit of "spread" team too. The only more recent "convert" to the spread has been Michigan ... and yet that "experiment" will end if Michigan can't put together a winning season in '10.

If you check out the current land-scape of Big 10 offenses ... you see Minnesota and MSU becoming more "conventional." You see Indiana using the pistol formation for the lone purpose to implement more "traditional" elements to their O. Lastly, you see Illinois becoming more traditional too ... going away from the explicit QB run options from spread formations.

 

[briankaldenberg]

I didn't mean for this whole "watch out for Michigan" thing to turn into an argument about spread offense and Norm Parker.

Bottom line is that Norm Parker is an excellent defensive coordinator, and we are super lucky to have him. His defense has worked well against all styles offense.

All I'm saying is that Michigan scored a decent amount of points, accumulated a decent amount of yards, and did pretty well in time of possession considering they turned the ball over 5 times and were playing an undefeated Iowa team at Kinnick, at night, with a freshman QB.

I think it is safe to say that the one type of offense that we've struggled with the most (not saying we struggle with it, but compared to all offenses we face) it is the spread offense that gives us the most trouble getting teams off the field.

I think we'd all rather face a Penn State or Wisconsin type offense then a NW or Michigan type offense.

 

[cabse5]

I apologize to all lovers of Norm Parker. I do want to point out, however, I don't love Norm Parker. I don't, for that matter, love Kirk Ferentz either. I love Iowa football and want to see it fly as high as it can.

I think we are talking about two different things, here. I say Parker's defense is not dominant except for very specific instances. Overall, certainly not as dominant as it once was under Parker. (I think we have to go back to the Evy era to find as dominating an Iowa defense).

The main reason for this is the proliferation of non-traditional offenses. Pass first offenses. The spread, for example.

Don't quote and compare seasonal statistics to me.
Explain the schizophrenic behavior of Iowa's defense. How can Iowa lock down a team like Georgia Tech yet have such a hard time with a team like UNI?

Here's what Iowa can do: they can exclusively schedule teams like Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State and Georgia Tech (teams with run first offenses) and pretty much guarantee a place in a BCS Bowl Game. Maybe even the National Championship Game because of the lack of struggle during the season. (When refuting my theory, don't cite last year because Iowa had an abberation of talent).

Life would be so much simpler, wouldn't it? Our blood pressure wouldn't shoot up as we hold our breath waiting for the result of that field goal. Wouldn't shoot up because Iowa's defense would be dominating. In the close win against Arkansas State, for example, one reason why the "blow out" became a contest was because Iowa's defense couldn't get off the field.

I won't venture a comment about where I think Iowa's defense should go in the future. Do you want the character of Parker's defense and all its quirks? Thanks for reading.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

All I'm saying is that Michigan scored a decent amount of points, accumulated a decent amount of yards, and did pretty well in time of possession considering they turned the ball over 5 times and were playing an undefeated Iowa team at Kinnick, at night, with a freshman QB.

I think it is safe to say that the one type of offense that we've struggled with the most (not saying we struggle with it, but compared to all offenses we face) it is the spread offense that gives us the most trouble getting teams off the field.

briankaldenberg -

Michigan scored 3 TDs on Iowa's D. One TD required them to convert on 4th down. They didn't score their last TD until too late in the game for it to matter too much ... and, even then, it required them playing a QB who our D had likely not game-planned against.

Thus, for the O that the Iowa D was fully set to face, Iowa limited them to only 2 scores ... and one of those required the opposition to convert on 4th down. By any account, that is impressive work.

Also, with regard to time-of-possession, I think that Michigan's D and Zoltan Mesko had a lot to do with that. Mesko booted something like FOUR 50+ yard punts against Iowa in that game ... and 2 punts pinned Iowa within our own 20 yard line. Also, for some bizarre reason, Stanzi kept on looking to pick on Warren throughout the entire first half ... and one of those passes resulted in a pick-6. I'm not certain if picking on Warren was by design or if it was just due to Stanzi was having trouble seeing (or throwing to) the rest of the field. Anyhow, the pressure that Graham generated on Stanzi stalled MANY Iowa drives and was a big reason why Iowa didn't control the clock like they arguably should have.

Lastly, for whatever reason, throughout the entire season, Iowa seemed to play with greater focus on the road than at home. Thus, I actually think that playing Kinnick really didn't give the Hawks that much of a tangible advantage. In fact, the fact that it was homecoming and that Iowa was trying to protect an undefeated season were all factors that probably served as distractions. Lastly, the Iowa game was really a "last chance" game for Michigan ... and I really think that the Wolverines entered the game with a great level of motivation. After losing to Iowa, they already had 2 Big 10 losses and they arguably should have had a 3rd to Indiana. Thus, the team clearly didn't know what they had to play for ... and that showed up when they got absolutely dominated by Penn State at home at the Big House!

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

I think we'd all rather face a Penn State or Wisconsin type offense then a NW or Michigan type offense.

The only advantage that I see in facing off against Penn State and Wisconsin is that the Iowa LBs are a little less likely to get caught lined up in coverage with a WR. Thus, that puts Iowa in fewer instances where personnel mismatches might occur.

However, when Penn State and Wisky feature a quality OL and a QB who can threaten us vertically ... they can be pretty tough to defend.

Quite frankly, I'm most nervous about how Iowa's D will fare against Wisky and MSU in 2010. tOSU definitely gives me significant reason for concern too ... however, I'll be more concerned about them if Washington finally plays with greater consistency and if Stoneburner can emerge more as a viable receiving threat. The primary thing that gives me some confidence against Michigan State is that they lost some quality veterans from the OL ... and that likely gives Iowa's DL a marked advantage. The thing that scares the crap out of me concerning MSU is that Cousins is a vastly underrated QB and he has a terrific set of WRs and TEs to throw to ... furthermore, the talent is there at RB too. Wisky has a great set of skill players too ... however, they don't appear quite as deep at TE as they usually are. Of course, that said, Kendricks, at TE, is arguably a tougher match-up for the Iowa LBs than they're usually used to facing.

As for concern about facing Northwestern and Michigan here are my primary concerns:

- Against NW, I'm concerned about the QB run. I've heard rumor that Persa has 4.5 speed ... and if you rewatch the '09 game, it's easy to come away as a believer.

- Against Michigan, I'm concerned about the match-ups if Denard Robinson can vertically challenge Ds, even when he's pressured. Roundtree and Hemingway are very promising WRs and are legit play-making threats.

- Against NW, I'm concerned about Dunsmore ... while Iowa can match-up with him to some degree, he's VERY good at contributing to the passing game from his super-back position (a hybrid H-back/TE position).

- Against BOTH Michigan and Northwestern, Iowa needs to tackle VERY well. Both Os are reliant on yardage after reception and yardage after contact. A missed tackle on NW's Peterman in the opening of the 2nd half was one of well over a dozen plays that could have been the difference in the '08 game. Missed tackles on Minor contributed to Michigan enjoying its "easiest" TD drive against Iowa in '09. In many respects though, I am more concerned about tackling against Michigan ... because the tackling issue tends to rear its ugly head much more early in the season. We don't fact Northwestern until late in the season, so I don't anticipate that it will be too big of a problem by then.

 

[EastLosRandy]

Explain the schizophrenic behavior of Iowa's defense. How can Iowa lock down a team like Georgia Tech yet have such a hard time with a team like UNI?

Perhaps the fact that we weren't even remotely the same team against UNI that we were against GT? Obviously, GT's inability to generate a passing game doomed them against us. But there's really no mystery why we struggled against UNI, and it had nothing to do with our alleged inability to defend the spread.

1. Sputtering Offense: Against UNI, Paki O'Meara was our starting RB. Wegher had ZERO carries. Our starting OL for that game was slapped together with duct tape and rubber bands. No Calloway. No Vandervelde. Richardson out of position at RT. Riley who? As a result we had no consistent running game. Stanzi took four big sacks, including the one that gave UNI their first FG on a silver platter. (Our "non-dominant" defense forced a three-and-out on that possession.)

UNI beat us in TOP by 4 minutes even though they committed 10 penalties for 71 yards, our defense held them to 2.6 ypa on the ground and forced 7 punts and 5 FG attempts. Why? Because Iowa's offense couldn't stay on the field.

2. Lack of depth at CB: Greg Castillo was our starting CB against UNI due to Prater's suspension. UNI's QB had the best efficiency rating against Iowa of any QB we faced all year. Prater was also out with an injury against Arkansas State. UNI: 270 yards passing and a TD. ASU: 216 yards passing and two TDs. Everybody else: five passing TDs combined against Iowa. Prater was tapped by Phil Steele as preseason 2nd team All Big Ten for 2010. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say these things are not coincidences!

And I think some of our players may have improved just a teensy bit over the course of the season. Perhaps that made us a better team by the end of the year? Just a wild guess.

So, yeah, Parker's defensive schemes really "suck" when we're starting inexperienced corners against teams that can throw the ball well. But when we have the guys we want healthy and experienced, then Parker's defense "sucks" all the way to a BC$ victory. The reason so many of us love Parker is BECAUSE we love Iowa. The Hawkeyes wouldn't have even sniffed the Orange Bowl last year if it wasn't for Parker's "non-dominant" defense.