Is 5 the preferred seed for conference tourney?

[Hawknigh]

I am not predicting that Iowa runs the table or implodes. I am guessing 4-3. So, that puts us at least in the conversation for a double bye.

However, given that Iowa has never done squat in the conference tourney under Fran, there is a case to be made that a 5 seed is the best position. Whether we are the 4 or the 5, it seems most likely we end up playing Maryland or Wisky. Toss-ups at best.

If we are the 4 seed, we come into the game cold against a good team that played the night before and won. They have momentum. If we lose, we are 1 and done.

If we are the 5 seed, we play the lowest seed remaining in the second round and one would think we would win that game. We then face the 4 seed who has not played and may be a bit cold. There can be an advantage to playing the night before and getting used to the court. But, even if we lose, we at least went 1-1.

In short, even though I like this team and think it is different than past Fran teams, at this point its hard to have faith in a deep tournament run. So, I will hedge my bet and hope to at least grab 1 tourney win against a bad team and then hope for the best from there.

I know, not exactly a championship mentality....

Are you serious? You don't want a double-bye? If being cold is a problem as a 4 seed, it will also be a problem as a 5 seed, just a day earlier. There is a lot to be concerned about with this team, but "being cold as a 4 seed" is not one of them.

 

[revkev73]

NCAA tournament success is the litmus test, no one remembers the tournament titles, we remember Alford's because there is nothing else.

A regular season title, now that is something! You have to be good.

 

[Northside Hawk]

I'd much rather have a 4 seed than a 5 seed.

IMO its been proven time and time again that the BTT won't positively help your seeding for the dance. It seems like the committee already has the bracket filled out and teams locked in no matter what by Friday (with the exception of a Cinderella AQ). So your best option is to avoid the bad loss if possible

Gotta shoot for that four seed. I want as many teams as possible knocked out before having to play. It diminishes the randomness of getting an underdog on one of those nights they can't miss. Or one of those nights the refs call everything. Get the five seed and you will likely play Illinois or Penn State with a win under their belts. And we've seen Fran's history of playing double-digit seeds who already have a win under their belts. A dangerous proposition.

Get the four seed and teams have already been beating up on each other for two days. And if you get a team playing the third consecutive day while you are fresh you have a great chance of wearing them out like Purdue did to Rutgers a couple years ago, or to Illinois in 2016.

Being realistic however, I don't see a four seed in our future. We would have to beat Maryland and Wisconsin, lose no more than one game the rest of the season, and hope they slip up a couple times.

 

[WindsorHawk]

No, even if Iowa does go one and done getting a 4 seed in the conference is way better than having to play a 12/13 seed as a 5 seed. Iowa's chances of getting to the BTT semi finals is way better as a 4 seed playing with fresh legs.

It seems like Iowa has lost a 2nd round game recently as a 5 seed, those games are no gimmees. I can't imagine getting stuck playing an Indiana or a Northwestern and have them go off on a huge shooting night to knock off Iowa.

No way I want to play Illinois in Chicago.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I want the 4 seed. There is zero upside to a win Thursday. There is upside to a win Friday. There is minimal downside to a loss Friday.

And the 5 could lose Thursday giving us an easier game Friday...always want to win the BTT which is helped by the path of least resistance.

Most important of all...The path to the 4 seed probably secures a 4 seed in the NCAA. This makes 2 games in DSM probable.

 

[DDThompson]

4 seed for BTT means a 4 seed and probably in DM.

5 seed for BTT means a 4 seed in MM is iffy (need a lot of other 4-seed possibles to falter.

Basically, need to beat Wisconsin and Maryland and no bad losses.

 

[DDThompson]

I want the 4 seed. There is zero upside to a win Thursday. There is upside to a win Friday. There is minimal downside to a loss Friday.

And the 5 could lose Thursday giving us an easier game Friday...always want to win the BTT which is helped by the path of least resistance.

Most important of all...The path to the 4 seed probably secures a 4 seed in the NCAA. This makes 2 games in DSM probable.

This is why I should read through a thread and just “like” what somebody else says instead of just repeating what somebody else said.

 

[mopkins]

I want the 4 seed. There is zero upside to a win Thursday. There is upside to a win Friday. There is minimal downside to a loss Friday.

And the 5 could lose Thursday giving us an easier game Friday...always want to win the BTT which is helped by the path of least resistance.

Most important of all...The path to the 4 seed probably secures a 4 seed in the NCAA. This makes 2 games in DSM probable.

Honestly I think we need to give up the Des Moines dream. Lunardi, Palm and USA today all seem to agree that both Michigan teams will play in Des Moines barring a collapse

 

[WindsorHawk]

Honestly I think we need to give up the Des Moines dream. Lunardi, Palm and USA today all seem to agree that both Michigan teams will play in Des Moines barring a collapse

I agree with them today. But things change. Where does Iowa get placed that’s close to home if we earn a 4 seed?

 

[WindsorHawk]

Honestly I think we need to give up the Des Moines dream. Lunardi, Palm and USA today all seem to agree that both Michigan teams will play in Des Moines barring a collapse

And I’m sure they have all plugged in 2 or 3 more losses for Iowa. If that doesn’t happen lots of things change.

 

[mopkins]

I agree with them today. But things change. Where does Iowa get placed that’s close to home if we earn a 4 seed?

Thats the problem...theres nothing else really close to home. Tulsa? Salt Lake City?

What sucks is Columbus Ohio is a lot closer for the Michigan teams than Des Moines, but right now they have Virginia, or Tennessee or Kentucky slotted for Columbus. So one or both of the Michigan teams need to somehow jump those guys in seeding or else those other guys need to get sent somewhere else like Jacksonville or Columbia SC

Unfortunately almost all of the top seeds are from the ACC or SEC so theyre all bunched up down in the SE corner

 

[InGoodCo]

So many what ifs in there, not to mention UW is actually favored in that game tonight.

I sort of want the 6 seed because it will be a game I can watch after work.

I'm with ya - i just want them to play on Thursday cause I'll be there, which is totally selfish. I'll live if they somehow sneak into the 4. There's lots to do in CHI and I have a lot of friends there -

 

[InGoodCo]

Honestly I think we need to give up the Des Moines dream. Lunardi, Palm and USA today all seem to agree that both Michigan teams will play in Des Moines barring a collapse

If MSU goes to Des Moines, there is little chance Iowa goes there any way you slice it. I think they avoid placing teams that have faced more than twice in the regular season. Michigan would be ok tho - unless we see them in the B1G Tournament.

 

[NikeHawk21]

And I’m sure they have all plugged in 2 or 3 more losses for Iowa. If that doesn’t happen lots of things change.

To play devil’s advocate we almost just lost to NW at home, arguably our second easiest remaining game at the time, but now we are going to run the table?

 

[PCHawk]

To play devil’s advocate we almost just lost to NW at home, arguably our second easiest remaining game at the time, but now we are going to run the table?

He didnt say it will happen, he said if it happens.

 

[NikeHawk21]

He didnt say it will happen, he said if it happens.

I know it’s just interesting to see some of the commentary compared to what it could have been if we would have lost to NW. Thankfully we didn’t.

Each individual game is unique and Iowa should have a very good chance in every remaining one save at Wisconsin.

The realist in me says the BTT 4 seed has a likelihood of about 15% and Des Moines probably 10%.

 

[Northside Hawk]

I agree with them today. But things change. Where does Iowa get placed that’s close to home if we earn a 4 seed?

Boise. Like always.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Michigan is no sure thing. They are 2-2 against the current Top 6 in the standings. They beat NW at home by 2...which means they suck according to some on here. They beat MN at home by 2. Their final 7 games...2 with MSU, 2 with MD and a road game at MN.

 

[WindsorHawk]

To play devil’s advocate we almost just lost to NW at home, arguably our second easiest remaining game at the time, but now we are going to run the table?

MI beat NW by 2 on their home court...same for MN. What are they in the NCAA...6 seed? They are 2-2 against the top 6 with 2 against both MSU and MD left on their schedule...may not win another game I guess.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I know it’s just interesting to see some of the commentary compared to what it could have been if we would have lost to NW. Thankfully we didn’t.

Each individual game is unique and Iowa should have a very good chance in every remaining one save at Wisconsin.

The realist in me says the BTT 4 seed has a likelihood of about 15% and Des Moines probably 10%.

We have to win out to get the 4. That’s unlikely. But if we do I think WI and MI are teams we could pass.