Iowa's Path to the Playoffs!!!!

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NorthKCHawk

Well-Known Member
Okay, hear me out. My 16 year old suggested this. I laughed and said not even 1% possible. He then walked me through the 4 game parlay. I then laughed again and conceded its possible. Here it goes:

1. Georgia murders Bama. I mean murders. Embarrassed.
2. Cincy loses to Houston.
3. Oregon loses to Utah.
4. Iowa murders Michigan. Murders. Like 40-6. Embarrassed.

If so, Georgia is 1, ND is 2, and the winner of Big 12 is 3. Those are locks. The fourth spot would be between Bama, Iowa, Ohio State, and Ole Miss, probably in that order of likelihood. I find it hard to believe the committee would put in Iowa before a name brand like Bama, but if they get creamed by Georgia, barely beat Auburn, and otherwise their schedule is nothing to write home about, a strong argument could be made that Iowa is more deserving as a conference champ who just beat the #2 team in the country in convincing fashion. The other two teams didn't even play for their conference title. Recency bias helps us too.

I give the four game parlay about a 1% chance of hitting, and even then, its 50/50 the committee would do the right thing and pick Iowa.

But yes, I am saying there's a chance!!!!
 
There's always a chance that I'll hookup with the next big Hollywood starlet but it's slim to none chance that this happens.
 
vork22 said:
There’s zero chance.
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Are you saying there's zero chance that those 4 things can happen or zero chance that they're in if it does happen? I think there is almost a zero percent chance those 4 things happen. But I think it's almost 100 percent that we get in if it does happen.
 
First, I agree that the committee will be highly unlikely to jump generic old Iowa over a venerable blue blood like Bama, but let's say that the committee actually realizes sending the same 4 teams to the playoffs every damn year is bad for the game, and so they are willing to have an open mind to an Iowa. If so, a case can be made:

Under the scenario, both teams will have 2 losses. Iowa has two okay losses to two teams that have been ranked at times. Bama has a loss to A&M that is on par with Iowa's 2 losses, but then a blow-out loss to the #1 team. Again, imagine Bama loses 42-7 and its never a game. The losses would largely even out.

Then you ask, who has the better win? Both teams have ugly wins. But as far as quality wins, Bama took care of business at home against a good Ole Miss team. Iowa beat the piss out of the #2 team in the country on a neutral field. And they did that 5 minutes ago.

If you removed the name on the jersey and looked at the results, especially the trend line the last few games, Iowa is the better choice.
 
NorthKCHawk said:
First, I agree that the committee will be highly unlikely to jump generic old Iowa over a venerable blue blood like Bama, but let's say that the committee actually realizes sending the same 4 teams to the playoffs every damn year is bad for the game, and so they are willing to have an open mind to an Iowa. If so, a case can be made:

Under the scenario, both teams will have 2 losses. Iowa has two okay losses to two teams that have been ranked at times. Bama has a loss to A&M that is on par with Iowa's 2 losses, but then a blow-out loss to the #1 team. Again, imagine Bama loses 42-7 and its never a game. The losses would largely even out.

Then you ask, who has the better win? Both teams have ugly wins. But as far as quality wins, Bama took care of business at home against a good Ole Miss team. Iowa beat the piss out of the #2 team in the country on a neutral field. And they did that 5 minutes ago.

If you removed the name on the jersey and looked at the results, especially the trend line the last few games, Iowa is the better choice.
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You're making your case under the assumption that there's even a tiny fraction of a chance that the CFP committee acts rationally. That has never been, and never will be the case.

Alabama = Literal truckloads of money. Iowa couldn't even come within the same zip code of revenue from a ratings and advertising scenario. The committee doesn't care about what's good for the sport, they care about what puts the most butts in seats and views on TV. Period.

Why else would they not have an 8 team playoff selected by criteria yet? Because they want to control which teams make it and hence how much money they stand to gain.
 
Just had this same discussion with a co-worker. If Georgia and OK State win Saturday, and Cincy & Oregon lose, who would be #3 & #4?

1 loss ND is probably in.

1 loss Cincy would be out.

But then a 2 loss team would be #4. Candidates would be:

Iowa - BIG champ
Pitt - ACC champ
Bama
Ole Miss
Ohio St
Michigan

Iowa's wins (Mich, Penn St) would be comparable to anyone else's on that list, and Barta is the chairman, so maybe the members would vote Iowa to stick it to the SEC.

Again, not counting on an Iowa win Saturday or a Bama, Cincy loss, but fun to speculate.
 
NorthKCHawk said:
First, I agree that the committee will be highly unlikely to jump generic old Iowa over a venerable blue blood like Bama, but let's say that the committee actually realizes sending the same 4 teams to the playoffs every damn year is bad for the game, and so they are willing to have an open mind to an Iowa. If so, a case can be made:

Under the scenario, both teams will have 2 losses. Iowa has two okay losses to two teams that have been ranked at times. Bama has a loss to A&M that is on par with Iowa's 2 losses, but then a blow-out loss to the #1 team. Again, imagine Bama loses 42-7 and its never a game. The losses would largely even out.

Then you ask, who has the better win? Both teams have ugly wins. But as far as quality wins, Bama took care of business at home against a good Ole Miss team. Iowa beat the piss out of the #2 team in the country on a neutral field. And they did that 5 minutes ago.

If you removed the name on the jersey and looked at the results, especially the trend line the last few games, Iowa is the better choice.
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The bold above is a pretty moot point because everybody realizes that the playoffs are going to be expanded in the near future. So, nobody is going to care or bitch that Iowa was left out this year. Nobody is going to really say shit because they know it is going to be corrected and things are going to change soon.
 
Look, this was just a fun exercise. When my kid raised it I laughed at the notion that we could jump from 13 to 4 in one weekend. But, you cannot say its impossible in the same way that lepricons and unicorns are. The ridiculous 4-game parlay I laid out aint happening (especially the notion that Iowa could blow out anyone, especially Michigan). But if it did, I believe there would be a robust debate in that room. I for one think the committee almost always gets the best 4 teams selected. Barta would get ejected from the room, so it would be about the smartest that committee would ever be.
 
PCHawk said:
Are you saying there's zero chance that those 4 things can happen or zero chance that they're in if it does happen? I think there is almost a zero percent chance those 4 things happen. But I think it's almost 100 percent that we get in if it does happen.
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I’m saying that there isn’t a scenario where Iowa gets in.
 
MelroseHawkins said:
The bold above is a pretty moot point because everybody realizes that the playoffs are going to be expanded in the near future. So, nobody is going to care or bitch that Iowa was left out this year. Nobody is going to really say shit because they know it is going to be corrected and things are going to change soon.
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If they expand the playoff and leave it as committee selection only it's going to be even more bullshit than it is now.
 
If Iowa loses to Michigan and Michigan is not selected for the CFP, it would be a travesty. If Iowa beats Michigan, I won’t give a damn who goes to the CFP. It will not be Iowa.
 
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