Iowa's Offensive Numbers Don't Add Up

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
I was never all that great at math, so I am in need of your assistance. Can you help me make sense of the following numbers?

In 2011, James Vandenberg threw for 3,022 yards. That was the fourth best single season total in school history and the only two players to throw for more yards in a season as a Hawkeye are Chuck Long and Chuck Hartlieb, names that are Hawkeye football royalty. Vandenberg also threw 25 touchdowns to just six interceptions, with the touchdown total being the third highest total for a season in school history. Vandenberg's 2011 was also the third highest total offensive output by a Hawkeye in school history.

In 2011, Marcus Coker ran for 1,384 yards, which was the fourth best single season total in school history. He also scored 15 rushing touchdowns, which was the third best total for a season in school history.

In 2011, Mavin McNutt tied Iowa's single season record with 82 receptions, broke Iowa's single season receiving yards record and put up a year that ranks 7th best all time not in Iowa history, but Big Ten history, as far as receiving yards go.

So how in the world was this offense so 'meh' so much of the time?

I don't have the answer. I really wish I had the answer.

Vandenberg returns for Iowa, yet a portion of the fanbase is already wondering whether Jake Rudock will have a chance to beat him out. Granted, this might not be a large faction of fans and they noise is disproportionate to their number, but some of them were out in full force during the Insight Bowl.

Chuck Long's junior year was less impressive, statistically, than Vandenberg's but I remember Iowa fans huddling around radios hoping to hear Long announce that he would return for his senior season at Iowa and the euphoria when he did just that. Yet some are ready to see what Rudock can do.

Marcus Coker will likely return for Iowa, as his suspension is over and Gary Barta said the 'invitation' is there for him to come back to the program. I think fans had a chance last night to see his value to the team, and that he would also be helped out greatly by a change of pace backup to lessen his load.

Why aren't my thoughts related to next year's potential on offense inspiring confidence? Why wasn't this offense more consistent this season? How will it find consistency next year after it (likely) loses it's top three offensive linemen and best receiver in school history?

I've said it before and will say it again; Iowa's offense has to be too perfect. Granted, the Hawkeyes did themselves no favors in their losses this year as there were bushel baskets full of missed opportunities. The kind of missed opportunities that play calling cannot overcome; dropped passes, penalties inside the 10 yard line, a quarterback who felt phantom pressure far too often away from Kinnick Stadium, etc.

Yet when you see that sort of missed execution over and over again, season after season, don't you then begin to wonder about other things? Do you wonder why Iowa gets in those spots? Do you begin to wonder about the design of the passing game and its predictability? Don't you wonder about trying to pick up first downs with three receivers and a tight end in 3rd and 6 or more situations when the defense is dropping five or six defenders into pass coverage?

To my layman's eye, it just feels like Iowa's offense makes things harder on itself. It feels like 3rd and 6 or longer for Iowa is a much, much harder play for them to execute than it is for the teams they play. This offense does seem predictable at times and Iowa's opponents have said that numerous times through the years.

It's a great offense when things are being executed; it can be downright demoralizing for an opponent. However, as we illustrated with this graphic from early December, the offense rarely executes consistently over the course of the season. The following numbers represent Iowa's NCAA statistical rankings for the listed categories, with the 'worst' ranking being somewhere around 119 or 120 and 'average' being around 60:

IOWAOFFENSESTATS.jpg


That's called not getting it done, or not pulling your weight.

Something just wasn't 'right' with Iowa's offense this year, not with so much firepower at the most key positions as well as an offensive line that was in the upper division of its league and will likely hear three starters have their names called in the 2012 NFL draft.

I wish I had more answers than questions right now, but that's simply not the case. We have nine more months to talk about this and other aspects related to the program and my guess is things will be as micro-analyzed this spring and summer as they have ever been.
 
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Definitely the most frustrating part of the year. The boxscore has been misleading, even last night. More yards, dominating time of possession until OU went into clock mode, and it doesn't show on the scoreboard.

The offense made plays this year, but it is a matter of when they made them. It gets very frustrating watching teams like ISU and Minny make plays when it matters to win and Iowa not returning the favor. Just think how those two games that should have definitely been wins would change things.
 
Iowa marches down the field, picking up first downs and yards, yet when it's crunch time, they **** it away on the 10 yard line. How many times this season did Iowa have a good drive, only to shoot themselves in the foot rather that score?

That's how you statistically look good, yet on the scoreboard, look BAD.
 
The answer is right in front of your face. Kirk is excellent at developing talent and getting it to the next level. To be honest that doesn't mean squat to me if he can't win big and often on Saturdays.

In his 13th year he is still learning about clock management, developing backups for his starters and running a two minute offense. Seriously, at this level.

Wonderfull representative of the university but he just isn't that good when it comes to W-L's on a consistent basis. Wish he was, for a lot of reasons.

But as Gunnery Sargent Thomas Highway says, "Adapt and overcome". Let's be honest, that isn't Kirk's strength.
 
Those rushing stats are not good. I thought the running game was supposed to be Iowa's "bread and butter".. Apparently not? 77th nationally with a 1300+ yard back and 3 linemen that will probably be drafted? I don't know what else to call that if not underachieving.
 
Dead last rushing offense. Coker's numbers are misleading. Under 5 YPC is not 4th mist impressive rushing season. Just nobody else got the rock. He only had a better YPC than TMart of the top ten rushers in the B1G.

Sixth best total offense, Eigth best total defense. That puts Iowa right where they belong in a weak B1G.

But Jon, I have been saying the same thing about the Iowa O for years. They have to play way too perfect to succeed. Watch Urban's O over the next couple if years to see what we mean.
 
13 games counted for stats this year versus 11 for the Chucks and practically everyone else in Iowa history. Can't go by gross totals. Need averages nowadays. Not sure how that would make them look but it would be more accurate.
 
It's easy Jon, you should read moneyball - become a sabremetrician.

JVB had a statistically fine year, but it is plain to see that he is an average QB against any kind of pressure, and even more so on the road.

Coker averaged less than 5 YPC, his yardage was the result of a tremendous number of carries.

TD's scored have to be viewed in the context of how they were scored How many of Cokers TD's came from inside the 5 yard line? Those aren't impressive, anyone would have scored those.

Keenan Davis is soft. All you had to do was force him to run routes over the middle to take his game totally away.

CJF is not ready for the prime time.

McNutt - as we saw last night can be contained when you have nothing else to worry about.

The gamess McNutt was great, was tied to the games that Coker was great, and McNutt's YAC and ability to run a fade route at his height was a huge boost to JVB's statistics for both yards and TD's.

What JVB didn't do, was drive us down the field with 8-12 yard passes and Coker plotting away for 5 yard runs. When JVB scored, he scored big.
 
Play calling and execution in the red zone sucked all year. OU is a team that demands you run screen passes against and Iowa ran one..................for a TD no less. TE screen, Wr screen all would have been good plays against a fast moving defense like OU. When their corners are playing bump and run on the WR Iowa needed to put them recievers in motion so their corners couldn't do that which would have allowed the recievers a clean break off the line and the timing would still be there. Iowa's play calling reminds me a lot of KF and his personlaity, he doesn't trust his players to make plays or better yet fail at something he might get questioned for. OL played great and with the weapons Iowa had/has more points should have been on the board.
 
If you check our numbers inside the twenty Jon I think you will see we weren't near as potent. Just like last night when Oklahoma knew we were going to run we couldn't get a couple yards. Other teams seem to know our plays.........go figure. Last night when we finally threw the little screen in the red zone.......we got points. We need to be better and more creative in the red zone is my answer. Next year, assuming we lose Reiff, we don't get better in the OL, don't know what the situation is with Coker but we could get significantly worse at RB, and unless Vandy gets a lot more consistent it will be coin flip QB each game.........Given all this and our D line losing Binns and Daniels (BTW they both looked really good last night) we may be in big trouble. Really need Cooper, Faith, and some other unknown to make some noise with Davis with Alvis and crew on the DL or we may not go bowling next year

I hope we get a good recruiting class and K Davis can develop and get rid of the drops and Coker finds his way back to the team. Also hope a different D coord brings some new energy.
 
Sixth best total offense in the B1G, Eighth best total defense. That puts Iowa in the middle of the pack, where they belong.

Oh yeah, and the B1G was down this year.
 
It just seems like our offense is way too uptight. Every player seems to have no fluidity. I thinks that's why a lot of fans really wanted McCall or Canzeri to get more carries, they appeared to have an extra gear that no one else on the team has.

Look at other teams and how they seem to play loose and just have better football movements, then watch our offense and it's like they're so scared to take a risk, or they have to be so precise in their blocking or routes that one misstep and the entire play is ruined.

We also run plays that don't take advantage of what a defense is doing. Though the rb screen pass was brilliant, yet we only run it once???

And we have a history of qbs that lock in on one target, or if the primary isn't immediately open we dump off way to fast. Stanzi was bad at this as is jvb.

So is it the scheme or the players we recruit? Probably both. We dont get real WR (usually convert from a qb). Until our recruiting gets better, these schemes will continue to fluster
 
DBAHawkFan said:
And we have a history of qbs that lock in on one target, or if the primary isn't immediately open we dump off way to fast. Stanzi was bad at this as is jvb.

So is it the scheme or the players we recruit? Probably both.
Click to expand...

Maybe the QB coach could explain that. That's KOK isn't it?
 
JonDMiller said:
I was never all that great at math, so I am in need of your assistance. Can you help me make sense of the following numbers?

In 2011, James Vandenberg threw for 3,022 yards. That was the fourth best single season total in school history and the only two players to throw for more yards in a season as a Hawkeye are Chuck Long and Chuck Hartlieb, names that are Hawkeye football royalty. Vandenberg also threw 25 touchdowns to just six interceptions, with the touchdown total being the third highest total for a season in school history. Vandenberg's 2011 was also the third highest total offensive output by a Hawkeye in school history.

In 2011, Marcus Coker ran for 1,384 yards, which was the fourth best single season total in school history. He also scored 15 rushing touchdowns, which was the third best total for a season in school history.

In 2011, Mavin McNutt tied Iowa's single season record with 82 receptions, broke Iowa's single season receiving yards record and put up a year that ranks 7th best all time not in Iowa history, but Big Ten history, as far as receiving yards go.

So how in the world was this offense so 'meh' so much of the time?

I don't have the answer. I really wish I had the answer.

Vandenberg returns for Iowa, yet a portion of the fanbase is already wondering whether Jake Rudock will have a chance to beat him out. Granted, this might not be a large faction of fans and they noise is disproportionate to their number, but some of them were out in full force during the Insight Bowl.

Chuck Long's junior year was less impressive, statistically, than Vandenberg's but I remember Iowa fans huddling around radios hoping to hear Long announce that he would return for his senior season at Iowa and the euphoria when he did just that. Yet some are ready to see what Rudock can do.

Marcus Coker will likely return for Iowa, as his suspension is over and Gary Barta said the 'invitation' is there for him to come back to the program. I think fans had a chance last night to see his value to the team, and that he would also be helped out greatly by a change of pace backup to lessen his load.

Why aren't my thoughts related to next year's potential on offense inspiring confidence? Why wasn't this offense more consistent this season? How will it find consistency next year after it (likely) loses it's top three offensive linemen and best receiver in school history?

I've said it before and will say it again; Iowa's offense has to be too perfect. Granted, the Hawkeyes did themselves no favors in their losses this year as there were bushel baskets full of missed opportunities. The kind of missed opportunities that play calling cannot overcome; dropped passes, penalties inside the 10 yard line, a quarterback who felt phantom pressure far too often away from Kinnick Stadium, etc.

Yet when you see that sort of missed execution over and over again, season after season, don't you then begin to wonder about other things? Do you wonder why Iowa gets in those spots? Do you begin to wonder about the design of the passing game and its predictability? Don't you wonder about trying to pick up first downs with three receivers and a tight end in 3rd and 6 or more situations when the defense is dropping five or six defenders into pass coverage?

To my layman's eye, it just feels like Iowa's offense makes things harder on itself. It feels like 3rd and 6 or longer for Iowa is a much, much harder play for them to execute than it is for the teams they play. This offense does seem predictable at times and Iowa's opponents have said that numerous times through the years.

It's a great offense when things are being executed; it can be downright demoralizing for an opponent. However, as we illustrated with this graphic from early December, the offense rarely executes consistently over the course of the season. The following numbers represent Iowa's NCAA statistical rankings for the listed categories, with the 'worst' ranking being somewhere around 119 or 120 and 'average' being around 60:

IOWAOFFENSESTATS.jpg


That's called not getting it done, or not pulling your weight.

Something just wasn't 'right' with Iowa's offense this year, not with so much firepower at the most key positions as well as an offensive line that was in the upper division of its league and will likely hear three starters have their names called in the 2012 NFL draft.

I wish I had more answers than questions right now, but that's simply not the case. We have nine more months to talk about this and other aspects related to the program and my guess is things will be as micro-analyzed this spring and summer as they have ever been.
Click to expand...



There are more issues with the football program then I understand. But it starts at the top with KF and his attitude.

Here is something an Iowa coach said just yesterday. Do you know who said it?

When you don’t win with exclamation points, it shows vulnerability, then it shows up in the next round or it could show up any time because you’re leaving things to chance.

This is the way I'd like to see KF coach. I won't hold my breath. We see it in the wrestling program and we are starting to see the same attitude fron Fran.
 
The OC calls the game in accordance with the head coach's instructions. Iowa's offense will never be "wide open" while Kirk Ferentz is our coach.
 
BroderickHawk said:
The OC calls the game in accordance with the head coach's instructions. Iowa's offense will never be "wide open" while Kirk Ferentz is our coach.
Click to expand...

I don't think the core issue is being 'wide open' or not. My opinion is that really doesn't matter in football. 'Wide open' works for who exactly? The best teams with the best players? Those best teams with best players can make a wish-bone work if they want. 95% of teams currently run some form of a 'wide-open' system but only 1 of 2 teams win a game so the 'wide-open' system loses as well. It looks great though on ESPN sportscenter highlights.

What matters is you.....

1. Have an offensive identity
2. Impose your will on an opponent at the line of scrimmage
3. Find what is working and force the other team to adjust or be steam-rolled
4. Recruit the players that match your identity
5. Demand execution -> mistake makers ride the pine

Problem is we don't do these things consistenly which lies at the foot of the head coach.
 
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Jon, this why I sometimes just gloss over when you post numbers. I undersatnd it's tough to find anything else to use as measuring stick (outside of wins and losses), but we also know what we see. The eye test, if you will.

I would also say Vandy put up a lot of his great numbers his season vs inferior opponents. That will make a qb look better than he actually is. I really wish next year they'd let him run out of the shotgun more. He's not Ricky Stanzi and you can't turn him into Stanzi. He's more of a Tom Brady stand there in the pocket and deliver strikes type of QB.
 
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