Iowa's Offensive Numbers Don't Add Up

[JonDMiller]

I am not putting James in the stratosphere of Chuck and Chuck...although, look into Iowa's 1988 season to remind yourself that it just ain't the QB..

He is a good quarterback. He's the best quarterback Iowa has on the roster, and my guess is if the college football were fantasy football and there was a drafting of QB's around the nation, most schools that have a pro-style offense would pluck JVB as a 5th year senior to be their QB. Penn State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten would certainly do that.

He will have an entire off season to analyze his own play...the kid is a film rat. He'll put in the work and I expect to see a more consistent James Vandenberg next season.

 

[JonDMiller]

He's not Ricky Stanzi and you can't turn him into Stanzi. He's more of a Tom Brady stand there in the pocket and deliver strikes type of QB.

Give HGF's JVB analysis a read. Also remember the defenses that Stanzi had. If I am under center with those defenses, I am gonna take more chances.

Also, you are missing the point of the article. If I would have told you before the year that Iowa would have a QB go for 3000/25/6, a RB with nearly 1400 and 15 TD and a WR with 1300 yards, my guess is you would have expected Iowa to be better than 7-6.

So why weren't they? That is the question...is it philosophical? Lack of execution when it mattered? I don't know.

 

[BroderickHawk]

I don't think the core issue is being 'wide open' or not. My opinion is that really doesn't matter in football. 'Wide open' works for who exactly? The best teams with the best players? Those best teams with best players can make a wish-bone work if they want. 95% of teams currently run some form of a 'wide-open' system but only 1 of 2 teams win a game so the 'wide-open' system loses as well. It looks great though on ESPN sportscenter highlights.

What matters is you.....

1. Have an offensive identity
2. Impose your will on an opponent at the line of scrimmage
3. Find what is working and force the other team to adjust or be steam-rolled
4. Recruit the players that match your identity
5. Demand execution -> mistake makers ride the pine

Problem is we don't do these things consistenly which lies at the foot of the head coach.

 

[arndog77]

The consistency and execution with the offense just wasn't there this year. Too many mistakes at key moments(i.e dropped passes, flags). Hopefully JVB and the offense can work on that this offseason and come back improved for 2012.

 

[BroderickHawk]

I'm not really advocating a "wide open" offensive scheme, but was responding to a previous post. I agree with you that consistency is key and the buck stops with the head coach.

 

[SpecialKHawk]

Jon, this why I sometimes just gloss over when you post numbers. I undersatnd it's tough to find anything else to use as measuring stick (outside of wins and losses), but we also know what we see. The eye test, if you will.

I would also say Vandy put up a lot of his great numbers his season vs inferior opponents. That will make a qb look better than he actually is. I really wish next year they'd let him run out of the shotgun more. He's not Ricky Stanzi and you can't turn him into Stanzi. He's more of a Tom Brady stand there in the pocket and deliver strikes type of QB.

Totally agree on us not passing the 'eye test' offensively and racking up numbers on lessor opponents while struggling mightily against decent teams.

I will say I'm just not sold on Vandenburg. So much of his hype came from one maybe two games; Ohio State & 4th quarter against Pittsburgh. I have found him to be a very inaccurate passer even on many completions (high, low, behind receivers). He also cannot handle pressure of any kind. Look back to OSU though, 2 picks and one should have been pick - miracle tip completion to Moeaki. He also took a huge sack in overtime (from pressure) that cost us the game in OT. Did he make some great throws - yes. Does he have a good arm - yes. He simply plays soft in the pocket,, sensing pressure that is not there,,, afraid to get hit and delivers too many inaccurate throws.

Stanzi was much better than he got credit for.... not perfect but much better movement in and out of the pocket and far more accurate passer.

 

[brhawks18]

I am not putting James in the stratosphere of Chuck and Chuck...although, look into Iowa's 1988 season to remind yourself that it just ain't the QB..

He is a good quarterback. He's the best quarterback Iowa has on the roster, and my guess is if the college football were fantasy football and there was a drafting of QB's around the nation, most schools that have a pro-style offense would pluck JVB as a 5th year senior to be their QB. Penn State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten would certainly do that.

He will have an entire off season to analyze his own play...the kid is a film rat. He'll put in the work and I expect to see a more consistent James Vandenberg next season.

Yes, he will put in the work. I don't know of a person who believes he won't. Unfortunately I don't feel it will do much good with the offense the Hawks run.

In the past I have been sad to see Iowa's season end and cannot wait for the next season to begin. For the first time since the late 70's I just don't feel that way right now.

I wasn't even excited for the bowl game. Went to Phoenix last year and this year the thought never crossed my mind. I just wish I felt different but I don't.

 

[Craig60]

Great article Jon. I love your table on offensive ratings compared to the national. You should put the defensive rankings as well and I bet we average in the top 20. The question I would like to ask Ferentz and it is somewhat sarcastic. Your offense consistantly ranks in the bottm 50% and your defense in the top 20% do you recruit better players for defense? If not why the discrepancy in performance and How does he evaluate the large difference? By the way the great offensive showing in 2005-2006 was because we had serious running injuries and KOK had to rely on the passing game of Tate.

 

[koralakers]

I am not going to apologize for KOK, but the number Jon provided are very 'skewed' for these reasons....
1- it is KFs life mission to 'shorten' games. While other teams run hurry-up, no huddle offenses (throughout the game-to negate the defenses opportunity to substitute and to keep tired defenders on field), IA never does. In fact we are lucky to get a play off with more than 5 secs left on 40-sec clock. Also, we run the ball way more than most teams, continually bleeding clock(while other teams run 5 wide receivers and run more of a 'fast-break' offense-which tends to take much less time to move ball down field).

2) on defense we force other teams to take 8 minutes, 15 plays to drive 80 yards (to get just a fg). Our defense will not allow big plays, but if u are patient, u can move the ball. This is why our D is always dead-last in plays per possession every yr, and among the worst at stopping third downs and fourth every year...because they can never seem to get off field

All these factors mean, while most games each team gets 13-15 possessions - Hawks games average 10-13. This factor is why we hardly ever get blown out (hadn't lost a game by double-figures in almost 4 yrs). This is also why IA has LOST 9 games while favored by double digits while the other 11 BIG have lost a total of 15 such games over the last 5 years.

 

[MoseSchrute]

No other team could have a back go for 250 against Minnesota and still lose the game. KF needs to give his offense over to someone who knows how to run it. The fact that he never will ensures this team will never be anything special.

 

[imported_ankle23]

What is wrong with Iowa's offense?

Last night was a microcosm of the problems.

Too many dropped passes.

Too many untimely penalties.

Too many untimely mistakes.

For the most part - as the numbers show, Iowa's offense is good. But too inconsistent due to the three points above. Move the ball and stumble. See last night:

Need a big 1st down pick up? Vandy puts the ball in a receiver's hands for a 1st down or close to and the ball is dropped.

Have the ball on the 1 and get a motion penalty.

Have the ball on the 6 when going for it on 4th and have the refs pause the play so Oklahoma gets set on D (which seemed to rattle the offense which was in a hurry up mode), and then don't throw the flag for 12 men on the field.

Offense showed a lot of promise and ability, but just not consistent enough.

 

[TylerSash]

The answer to this is pretty simple.

They were great at piling up stats against really bad teams. Think about it. We won 7 games, 6 of which were against bad teams, and then beat Michigan.

Of the 6 losses, 4 were against great teams (PSU, MSU, Neb, OU), and we didn't even compete in those games.

In the other 2 losses (ISU, Minn) we had some incredibly gaudy offensive statistics and just made crucial mistakes in other areas of the game (defense against ISU, not going for the 4th-and-1 in the 3rd OT; the on-side kick at Minn; that's two BRUTAL coaching mistakes).

The bottom line is that this team was great against really bad competition and terrible against good teams. This team lost 4 games by double digits after going 3 or 4 years without losing a single game by more than a TD.

This team was eerily reminiscent of 2006 where we beat a bunch of truly terrible teams and lost to all the good ones, and a few bad ones to. The only difference this year is that we were somehow able to pull a miracle out of our ***** against Michigan. Otherwise, we're 6-7, just like that year.

 

[imported_ankle23]

The answer to this is pretty simple.

They were great a piling up stats against really bad teams. Think about it. We won 7 games, 6 of which were against bad teams, and then beat Michigan.

Of the 6 losses, 4 were against great teams (PSU, MSU, Neb, OU), and we didn't even compete in those games.

In the other 2 losses (ISU, Minn) we had some incredibly gaudy offensive statistics and just made crucial mistakes in other areas of the game (defense against ISU, not going for the 4th-and-1 in the 3rd OT; the on-side kick at Minn; that's two BRUTAL coaching mistakes).

The bottom line is that this team was great against really bad competition and terrible against good teams. This team lost 4 games by double digits after going 3 or 4 years without losing a single game by more than a TD.

This team was eerily reminiscent of 2006 where we beat a bunch of truly terrible teams and lost to all the good ones, and a few bad ones to. The only difference this year is that we were somehow able to pull a miracle out of our ***** against Michigan. Otherwise, we're 6-7, just like that year.

true - i think we are in about a 2006 mode with this team. next year looks to be (on paper) like 2007 with the talent that returns. Like that time period, we'll be playing a lot of young players this year and next and will hopefully be able to string together a 2008-2010 because of that.

 

[uofihawkInation]

The inconsistance and constant 3 and outs killed Iowa's offense.

 

[NewMexHawk]

The staff does not trust the offense to get the job done. It is 4th and 1 one the opponents 35 yard line and KF does not trust them to get the 1 yard. He punts. KF puts all his eggs in the hands of the defense; if the offense does well, great, but KF's intention is to keep a game close and take no risks, and it shows when we lose to the Minnesota's and Iowa States.

When the other team and almost every viewer knows what play Iowa is going to run, it does not take much to stop that play. When Iowa plays such vanilla, conservative, take no risk football, Iowa will be a .500 team over time and that is exactly what Iowa is...a .500 mediocre football overall. Oh, they have the occasion good season when things go their way, but if things don't go their way, they are a very mediocre team...regardless of the talent that Iowa has.

Iowa has a QB that does great at home and puts up impressive numbers. Unfortunately, Iowa doesn't play all of its games in Kinnick and our QB has to play on the road, where he plays miserably. Predicting wins and loses with this year's team was fairly easy...Away and the Hawks lose. Put them up against a talented team this year and they were going to lose.

Teams, especially in the B1G, know Iowa inside out and it is now hurting the program. All a team needs to do to scout Iowa is look at any gametape in last 10 years and they know exactly what Iowa has to do. Opposing teams have adjusted to attack Iowa's weakness, while Iowa has adjusted zippo. Teams know how to beat Iowa now and although Iowa is still tough (in some games), if the opposition can keep the game close, regardless of their talent, they know they can beat Iowa. They are willing to take chances and do whatever they need to do to win the game, while Iowa does not and will not change one thing.

The one time they changed...against Pitt, they won the game. Pitt was not ready for an Iowa team like that. Then Iowa did not play that way again, especially in the B1G...I guess one time was way to risky for Ferentz. I wouldn't want him to have a heart attack by doing something risky and taking chances to win. He probably doesn't even walk home in the dark alone.

 

[silvanthalas]

Vandenberg's 2011 was also the third highest total offensive output by a Hawkeye in school history.

Ok, and how does this stack up against the offensive output of other schools?

This being the third highest total offensive output in school history tells me that Iowa has been pretty pathetic on offense for a long time. It tells me that Iowa has completely failed to keep up on the offensive side of the ball with many schools not only in the conference, but around the country. It seems me that our schemes, coaching, and recruiting are way behind the times.

For all we thump our chest about how good the defense usually is, you ARE allowed to have an offense just as good.

 

[brhawks18]

Give HGF's JVB analysis a read. Also remember the defenses that Stanzi had. If I am under center with those defenses, I am gonna take more chances.

Also, you are missing the point of the article. If I would have told you before the year that Iowa would have a QB go for 3000/25/6, a RB with nearly 1400 and 15 TD and a WR with 1300 yards, my guess is you would have expected Iowa to be better than 7-6.

So why weren't they? That is the question...is it philosophical? Lack of execution when it mattered? I don't know.

Yes and yes for starters. Sadly, things will not change next year.

It will not be obvious until next year for some of you, but Norm parker's absence will be the biggest issue for iowa to overcome unless they make a very big DC hire. That is not likely to happen though.

I wish the football staff would take something away from Iowa's B-Ball team today. Win or lose the game, they were going to attack right to the end.

 

[Montanahawk]

There was a good piece on the "Smart Football" blog several weeks ago about pro-style versus spread style offenses. One of the key points was that in a powerhouse programs teams benefit from pro-style offenses because they can take the best talent and feed them into the system. So, you get USC with a perennial "five star" QB throwing to big, and fast "five star" WR's.

That works at places like USC, and Alabama. Alabama effectively has a "game manager" type QB because they have such consistently talented RB's and powerful defenses they don't want to trust the game to a junior QB who's having an off-day.

So, the problem here for Iowa is that offensively they simply don't have the talent to annually be good on offense and run a conservative pro-style offense that depends on an overwhelming defense, and powerful running game. Iowa isn't LSU or Alabama. The defense has really saved Iowa the last decade. Norm Parker et al(and the defense, while unusually weak for Iowa, and talent depleted did improve over the course of the season...the offense?). We can't recruit like the powerhouses at QB/WR like the top teams. McNutt was the best WR in at least the Ferentz era and get struggled to get separation from quality corner backs. The offensive play calling/schemes didn't help him get open and he couldn't create much space.


This is a huge off-season for Iowa. Norm's retirement (arguably) means the loss of the coach most responsible for Iowa's success the last decade. If the defense slides(even just a little) from it's historic levels what we're left with is an annually mediocre offense incapable of putting up the numbers to win games. Yes, the loss of Coker was big but we would have been outclassed yesterday even with him and without either a unlikely jump in offensive talent or an even less likely dramatic change in schemes I fear this program has already reached it's apex and is headed to consistent mediocrity.

 

[Saginawbay]

Jon nice OP Iowa offense has the same problem year after year, and we never make ajustments.

 

[MoseSchrute]

There was a good piece on the "Smart Football" blog several weeks ago about pro-style versus spread style offenses. One of the key points was that in a powerhouse programs teams benefit from pro-style offenses because they can take the best talent and feed them into the system. So, you get USC with a perennial "five star" QB throwing to big, and fast "five star" WR's.

That works at places like USC, and Alabama. Alabama effectively has a "game manager" type QB because they have such consistently talented RB's and powerful defenses they don't want to trust the game to a junior QB who's having an off-day.

So, the problem here for Iowa is that offensively they simply don't have the talent to annually be good on offense and run a conservative pro-style offense that depends on an overwhelming defense, and powerful running game. Iowa isn't LSU or Alabama. The defense has really saved Iowa the last decade. Norm Parker et al(and the defense, while unusually weak for Iowa, and talent depleted did improve over the course of the season...the offense?). We can't recruit like the powerhouses at QB/WR like the top teams. McNutt was the best WR in at least the Ferentz era and get struggled to get separation from quality corner backs. The offensive play calling/schemes didn't help him get open and he couldn't create much space.


This is a huge off-season for Iowa. Norm's retirement (arguably) means the loss of the coach most responsible for Iowa's success the last decade. If the defense slides(even just a little) from it's historic levels what we're left with is an annually mediocre offense incapable of putting up the numbers to win games. Yes, the loss of Coker was big but we would have been outclassed yesterday even with him and without either a unlikely jump in offensive talent or an even less likely dramatic change in schemes I fear this program has already reached it's apex and is headed to consistent mediocrity.

Yes. If KF does not hire an adequate replacement for NP(and RK), he is going to find out very quickly that his "system" does not work.