Iowa's NCAA Draws

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WindsorHawk

Well-Known Member
Fran
2016 – Lost to Villanova (National Champs)…2nd game
2015 – Lost to Gonzaga (Elite 8)…2nd game
2014 – Lost to Tennessee (Sweet 16)…1st game

Alford
2006 – NW State…1st game
2005 – Cincinnati…1st game
2001 – Kentucky (Sweet 16)…2nd game

Davis
1999 – Connecticut (National Champs)…Sweet 16
1997 – Kentucky (National Runner-up…lost in OT)…2nd game
1996 – Arizona (Sweet 16)…2nd game
1993 – Wake Forest (Sweet 16)…2nd game
1992 – Duke (National Champs)…2nd game
1991 – Duke (National Champs)…2nd game
1989 – NC State (Sweet 16)…2nd game
1988 – Arizona (Final 4)…Sweet 16
1987 – UNLV (Final 4)…Elite 8

It feels like we get a tough draw every year and lose to the NCAA National Champions more than our fair share. So I went back as far as the Davis years. The National Champions do eliminate 6 teams (9.4% of the field) each year.
 
I'm going to throw out the Alford years...no NCAA success. This leaves 12 NCAA appearances under Tom and Fran. Below shows the caliber of the teams that eliminated us.

National Champs - 4
Runner-up - 1
Final 4 - 2
Elite 8 - 1
Sweet 16 - 4

Neither Fran or Tom has ever lost to a team that finished worse than the Sweet 16. Over half the time we lost to a Final 4 team. And one third of the time we lost to the National Champs. That sure seems like some tough draws to me.
 
IgetDislikes said:
IF you are only going to bring up the last 2 years for Iowa state then why have stats from 1987 on there for Iowa ?
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Because you aren't backing your post up with any data. Are we supposed to take your word for it? Sorry, that's not good enough for those of us with more than 20 posts.
 
Tough draws indeed, but I've been saying this a lot lately: If you don't want to play a potential Final Four team in the second round, then get a higher seed. That means having a better regular season without an epic melt down. Just get a 5 seed and you delay this until at least the Sweet 16, and you can always hope for upsets.

That said, it does seem like every time Iowa plays a higher seed in the dance, said opponent always seems to bring their A++++ game, without fail, and there's zero chance of an upset.
 
WindsorHawk said:
Because you aren't backing your post up with any data. Are we supposed to take your word for it? Sorry, that's not good enough for those of us with more than 20 posts.
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5,4,3,2,1 They had to play Michigan St. in their backyard otherwise they would have been national champs....You know some version of that is coming.
 
Windsor, if you want a homework assignment, see how many times a higher seed was upset, giving us a matchup with a lower seed.
 
1944 - Lost to Pepperdine (Runner Up) ...Final 4
1985 - Lost to Ohio State ... 1st Game
1886 - Lost to NC state (Elite 8)...sweet 16
1988 - Lost to Georgia Tech...1st game
1989 - Lost to UCLA...1st game
1992 - Lost to Kentucky (Elite 8)...2nd Game
1993 - Lost to UCLA...1st Game
1995 - Lost to North Carolina (Final 4)...2nd game
1996 - Lost to Utah (Sweet 16)...2nd game
1997 - Lost to UCLA (Elite 8)...Sweet 16
2000 - Lost to Michigan State (National Champions)..Elite 8
2001 - Lost to Hampton...First game
2005 - Lost to UNC (National Champions)...2nd game
2012 - Lost to Kentucky (National Champions)...2nd game
2013 - Lost to Ohio State (Elite 8)...2nd game
2014 - Lost to UCONN (National Champions)...Sweet 16
2015 - Lost to UAB...1st game
2016 - Lost to Virginia (Elite 8)...Sweet 16

4 eventual champions
1 runner up
1 final 4 team
5 elite 8 teams
7 teams that only made it to the Sweet 16 or lower(5/7 times they were lower seed)
61% of teams they lose to have went on to the Elite 8 or more.

These are Iowa States Draws
 
IgetDislikes said:
1944 - Lost to Pepperdine (Runner Up) ...Final 4
1985 - Lost to Ohio State ... 1st Game
1886 - Lost to NC state (Elite 8)...sweet 16
1988 - Lost to Georgia Tech...1st game
1989 - Lost to UCLA...1st game
1992 - Lost to Kentucky (Elite 8)...2nd Game
1993 - Lost to UCLA...1st Game
1995 - Lost to North Carolina (Final 4)...2nd game
1996 - Lost to Utah (Sweet 16)...2nd game
1997 - Lost to UCLA (Elite 8)...Sweet 16
2000 - Lost to Michigan State (National Champions)..Elite 8
2001 - Lost to Hampton...First game
2005 - Lost to UNC (National Champions)...2nd game
2012 - Lost to Kentucky (National Champions)...2nd game
2013 - Lost to Ohio State (Elite 8)...2nd game
2014 - Lost to UCONN (National Champions)...Sweet 16
2015 - Lost to UAB...1st game
2016 - Lost to Virginia (Elite 8)...Sweet 16

4 eventual champions
1 runner up
1 final 4 team
5 elite 8 teams
7 teams that only made it to the Sweet 16 or lower(5/7 times they were lower seed)
61% of teams they lose to have went on to the Elite 8 or more.

These are Iowa States Draws
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You and your facts!
 
Cydkar said:
You and your facts!
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Sort of facts that aren't that meaningful. Naturally, the further you make it in the tournament, the more likely you'll have played someone who went far in the dance.

Nobody should argue that Iowa State has been a better program the last 15 years. They had Wayne Morgan and McDermott but we had an even worse duo in Alford and Lickliter.
 
PCHawk said:
Windsor, if you want a homework assignment, see how many times a higher seed was upset, giving us a matchup with a lower seed.
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Fran
2016 – No
2015 – No
2014 – NA

Alford
2006 – NA
2005 – NA
2001 – No

Davis
1999 – No
1997 – No
1996 – No
1993 – No
1992 – No
1991 – No
1989 – No
1988 – No
1987 – Yes…after defeating the 15 seed and the 7 seed we had the good fortune of playing 6 seed (OK) instead of 3 seed (Pitt)

So it happened once in 1987…playing a 6 instead of a 3. That was our big break...leading to our meeting with the 1 seed (UNLV). So only 1 time in the 13 years (and 16 games) we advanced past the 1st game did it happen.
 
WindsorHawk said:
Fran
2016 – No
2015 – No
2014 – NA

Alford
2006 – NA
2005 – NA
2001 – No

Davis
1999 – No
1997 – No
1996 – No
1993 – No
1992 – No
1991 – No
1989 – No
1988 – No
1987 – Yes…after defeating the 15 seed and the 7 seed we had the good fortune of playing 6 seed (OK) instead of 3 seed (Pitt)

So it happened once in 1987…playing a 6 instead of a 3. That was our big break...leading to our meeting with the 1 seed (UNLV). So only 1 time in the 13 years (and 16 games) we advanced past the 1st game did it happen.
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Nice work!
 
PCHawk said:
Nice work!
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I have more for you. Only in 2006 (3 vs. 14), 1993 (4 vs. 5) and 1989 (4 vs. 5) did we lose to a team seeded lower than us. So 12 out of the 15 years listed we were eliminated by a team that was supposed beat us. And 2 of the 3 "upsets" were 4 vs. 5 games.
 
WindsorHawk said:
I'm going to throw out the Alford years...no NCAA success. This leaves 12 NCAA appearances under Tom and Fran. Below shows the caliber of the teams that eliminated us.

National Champs - 4
Runner-up - 1
Final 4 - 2
Elite 8 - 1
Sweet 16 - 4

Neither Fran or Tom has ever lost to a team that finished worse than the Sweet 16. Over half the time we lost to a Final 4 team. And one third of the time we lost to the National Champs. That sure seems like some tough draws to me.
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He had exactly one less win than Fran to date, and never had to play the "play in" game either..to leave that out makes zero sense.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Tough draws indeed, but I've been saying this a lot lately: If you don't want to play a potential Final Four team in the second round, then get a higher seed. That means having a better regular season without an epic melt down. Just get a 5 seed and you delay this until at least the Sweet 16, and you can always hope for upsets.

That said, it does seem like every time Iowa plays a higher seed in the dance, said opponent always seems to bring their A++++ game, without fail, and there's zero chance of an upset.[/QUOTE

It is all about seeding. If you're a seventh seed you are going to get a second seed in the second round. Likewise, if you're an eight seed you get a one seed after the first game. The Hawks ****** away their chance to have a better seed & play in Des Moines. If you are always playing a one or two seed in the second game, you just aren't going to be very successful.
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Hawk4Fan said:
He had exactly one less win than Fran to date, and never had to play the "play in" game either..to leave that out makes zero sense.
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Actually, you are wrong. It makes perfect sense. He got less than half of his teams in the tournament...3 out of 8. Out of the 3 teams he got into the tournament he managed 1 win. Including a guy with zero coaching skills skews the data.
 
We've had no luck as it relates to upsets helping us. But 77 and Columbus are right. Iowa only has 1 big upset loss to a lower seeded team. By the same token they only have 3 wins as the lower seed...1999 5 vs. 4, 1992 9 vs. 8 and 1988 5 vs.4. None of these are big upsets.

This 15 year sample suggests Iowa will play to their seed. Get a good seed (with a coach other than Alford) and Iowa will make a deep run...in theory.
 
Hawk4Fan said:
He had exactly one less win than Fran to date, and never had to play the "play in" game either..to leave that out makes zero sense.
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There's no such thing as a "play in" game but I will humor you. Fran is 2-2 in the NCAA Tournament at Iowa...since 2014 doesn't count in your eyes. Davis was 13-9. Alford was 1-3. I don't want the only coach with a sub .500 winning percentage skewing the data...exactly 1 NCAA win in 8 years.
 
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