Iowa Ranked #53 in KenPom Rankings

R

RockChalkIHawk

Banned
Just saw the first KenPom rankings of the season. Iowa is #53. The rest of the B10 is ranked as follows-
Ohio Stae #2
Indiana #3
Michigan State #4
Wisconsin #5
Michigan #12
Minnesota #26
Purdue #37
Iowa #53
Illinois #54
Penn State #67
Northwestern #90
Nebraska #216

Thoughts on the domination of the B10 or Iowa's ranking?
 
I've already msged Ken about Wisconsin at #5. Not sure how that's going to be possible without Gasser for the season and with Mike B out for the start. They weren't a Top 10 before losing those guys.

Iowa at #53 is the highest they have been since 2006 (I'm going off ending ratings, as I don't recall if they were above 53 at any point in the last 6 years). They probably bounced above it during Alford last year, for sure.
 
Pomeroy writes a blog post every year on how Wisconsin is overrated in his rankings.

the kenpom.com blog

Their efficiency ratings always overrate them in his system.

I am surprised he rates Minny and Purdue so high. I do think I'm higher on Minny than a lot of Iowa fans, but #26 I find surprising.
 
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storminspank said:
I've already msged Ken about Wisconsin at #5. Not sure how that's going to be possible without Gasser for the season and with Mike B out for the start. They weren't a Top 10 before losing those guys.

Iowa at #53 is the highest they have been since 2006 (I'm going off ending ratings, as I don't recall if they were above 53 at any point in the last 6 years). They probably bounced above it during Alford last year, for sure.
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I'm sure he's just dying to explain that again...like he does every single year.
 
Iowa one spot out of #9 in teh BoneG? Even for someone as skeptical as I am about this season, that's surprising.
 
So the highest team the Hawks will play before meeting up with Indiana is ranked #48 (UNI) or possibly Wichita State at #46. That start to the B1G schedule is looking more daunting with each glance.
 
RJSim4 said:
So the highest team the Hawks will play before meeting up with Indiana is ranked #48 (UNI) or possibly Wichita State at #46. That start to the B1G schedule is looking more daunting with each glance.
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We just dominated Creighton, so I wouldn't worry about it.
 
BryceC said:
Pomeroy writes a blog post every year on how Wisconsin is overrated in his rankings.

the kenpom.com blog

Their efficiency ratings always overrate them in his system.

I am surprised he rates Minny and Purdue so high. I do think I'm higher on Minny than a lot of Iowa fans, but #26 I find surprising.
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That is a factually inaccurate statement. Ken Pomeroy is one of the stat geeks that annually says that Wisconsin is UNDERRATED relative to the AP and Coaches polls. In fact Pomeroy just came out with an article and Tweet that said that Wisconsin is the best value in terms of odds to win the National Title. He also regularly writes articles that explains Wisconsin's efficiency #'s and ranks Wisconsin as one of the top offensive programs year in and year out based on their very high PPP (points per possession) offensive efficiency data. Wisconsinites and anyone who frequents Wisconsin message boards hold Ken Pomeroy in very high regard as do reputable analysts like Jay Bilas.

What is even more funny is that this article is written on January 9, 2012. Wisconsin had just come off of consecutive home losses and was 1-3 in the conference. So how could Wisconsin be ranked that high? As the data suggested the numbers would turn around. Pomeroy correctly predicted Wisconsin around the #20 ranking (actually it was low as we finished 13th and advanced to the Sweet 16 losing to the #1 seed). His data is remarkably accurate and probably the best predictor that you can find in regards to college basketball.
 
Lot of people jumping on the Gopher bandwagon because of Mbakwe's return, but I just don't get Purdue being ranked that high.
 
MisterLucky said:
Lot of people jumping on the Gopher bandwagon because of Mbakwe's return, but I just don't get Purdue being ranked that high.
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I can see your point RE: Purdue. However look at the list of BIG coaches that have had sustained success over 5+ seasons. Matta, Izzo and Ryan are in one Tier as their programs have been proven to be successful year in and year out. Painter is right on the cusp of that though a season or two have been below expectations but I feel as though that was due to unexpected injuries. This is his first real season without the original "Baby Boilers" that he's had so much success with. I do think that people are grouping Painter's success with the Boiler program that Gene Keady had and are therefore giving them the benefit of the doubt.

I like Minnesota because of what they did in the NIT and they also don't lose anyone super important and gain their best player (Mbakwe). As a neutral observer comparing Iowa and Minnesota, I would have to give the advantage to Minnesota. Iowa lost their leading scorer and their point guard. No matter what people feel about the prospects of Gessel, he is still a freshman. Minny deserves to be ranked 15-20 spots ahead. I don't have a horse in the race in regards to Minny/Iowa so that is my honest opinion.
 
activebadger said:
That is a factually inaccurate statement. Ken Pomeroy is one of the stat geeks that annually says that Wisconsin is UNDERRATED relative to the AP and Coaches polls. In fact Pomeroy just came out with an article and Tweet that said that Wisconsin is the best value in terms of odds to win the National Title. He also regularly writes articles that explains Wisconsin's efficiency #'s and ranks Wisconsin as one of the top offensive programs year in and year out based on their very high PPP (points per possession) offensive efficiency data. Wisconsinites and anyone who frequents Wisconsin message boards hold Ken Pomeroy in very high regard as do reputable analysts like Jay Bilas.

What is even more funny is that this article is written on January 9, 2012. Wisconsin had just come off of consecutive home losses and was 1-3 in the conference. So how could Wisconsin be ranked that high? As the data suggested the numbers would turn around. Pomeroy correctly predicted Wisconsin around the #20 ranking (actually it was low as we finished 13th and advanced to the Sweet 16 losing to the #1 seed). His data is remarkably accurate and probably the best predictor that you can find in regards to college basketball.
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No way! Who could beat Wisconsin in the Kohl Center????


images
 
activebadger said:
That is a factually inaccurate statement. Ken Pomeroy is one of the stat geeks that annually says that Wisconsin is UNDERRATED relative to the AP and Coaches polls. In fact Pomeroy just came out with an article and Tweet that said that Wisconsin is the best value in terms of odds to win the National Title.
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Annually... other than last year. And the year before. And the year before. Pomeroy's tweet that he "just came out with" two weeks ago said that they were a good value because they are 90-1. He didn't say anything about expecting them to win it all. Of course they are a good value there. Iowa State has 100-1 odds to win it all. It takes a real homer to get excited about the championship odds from a team that Vegas has tied for the 29th best chance to win it all.

I assume he'll have Wisconsin ranked above 29th all year. I probably would too.

In 2012 he had Wisconsin at #5.
In 2011 they were #7.
In 2010 they were #9.
In 2009 they were #29.

They might be underrated by the AP, but if they are correctly rated by KenPom, they consistently underperform in the tournament. You can pick which one.
 
BryceC said:
They might be underrated by the AP, but if they are correctly rated by KenPom, they consistently underperform in the tournament. You can pick which one.
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That statement is also factually inaccurate. If you took the Top 16 teams from the AP poll, the coaches poll, kenpom stats, RPI, etc and then look at the actual Sweet 16, typically 6-8 of those teams are actually in the Sweet 16 or less than half. I believe the correct # is around 38%. This is on a historic basis over the last 30 years. Some years you will have more teams that make it and other years less. Even if you use KenPom's data Wisconsin performs better than predicted value because you have to take the season as a whole and what other teams in the same ranking tier also did in the tournament. For example Missouri was a #2 seed last year. Despite the fact that they lost early, you don't have a team like Wisconsin or Ohio that advanced further in the NCAA tournament than Missouri supplant them in the final rankings, even though they performed better based off of one metric (NCAA tournament wins).

And yes, I know Iowa won at the Kohl Center last season. Apparently phucking anyone could beat us at that time. Izzo hadn't beaten us there in a decade and he did as well. I'll take that as a sign we could lose to anyone until we got things pieced together in late January.
 
activebadger said:
That statement is also factually inaccurate. If you took the Top 16 teams from the AP poll, the coaches poll, kenpom stats, RPI, etc and then look at the actual Sweet 16, typically 6-8 of those teams are actually in the Sweet 16 or less than half. I believe the correct # is around 38%. This is on a historic basis over the last 30 years. Some years you will have more teams that make it and other years less. Even if you use KenPom's data Wisconsin performs better than predicted value because you have to take the season as a whole and what other teams in the same ranking tier also did in the tournament. For example Missouri was a #2 seed last year. Despite the fact that they lost early, you don't have a team like Wisconsin or Ohio that advanced further in the NCAA tournament than Missouri supplant them in the final rankings, even though they performed better based off of one metric (NCAA tournament wins).

And yes, I know Iowa won at the Kohl Center last season. Apparently phucking anyone could beat us at that time. Izzo hadn't beaten us there in a decade and he did as well. I'll take that as a sign we could lose to anyone until we got things pieced together in late January.
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Oh you mean when you lost to Iowa the second time?
 
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