Iowa is Preseason #35

Based on this, he has Iowa as the 8th best team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, & Minnesota improving by 40+ spots from how they finished 2018.

Kenpom's 2019 Preseason Rankings - Final 2018 Rankings
  1. Michigan State (13) - (6)
  2. Purdue (18) - (5)
  3. Wisconsin (20) - (70)
  4. Michigan (24) - (7)
  5. Indiana (28) - (71)
  6. Maryland (30) - (39)
  7. Penn State (32) - (19)
  8. Iowa (35) - (88)
  9. Nebraska (38) - (55)
  10. Ohio State (41) - (16)
  11. Northwestern (58) - (85)
  12. Minnesota (60) - (117)
  13. Illinois (85) - (102)
  14. Rutgers (149) - (130)
 
JG10Hawk said:
Based on this, he has Iowa as the 8th best team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, & Minnesota improving by 40+ spots from how they finished 2018.

Kenpom's 2019 Preseason Rankings - Final 2018 Rankings
  1. Michigan State (13) - (6)
  2. Purdue (18) - (5)
  3. Wisconsin (20) - (70)
  4. Michigan (24) - (7)
  5. Indiana (28) - (71)
  6. Maryland (30) - (39)
  7. Penn State (32) - (19)
  8. Iowa (35) - (88)
  9. Nebraska (38) - (55)
  10. Ohio State (41) - (16)
  11. Northwestern (58) - (85)
  12. Minnesota (60) - (117)
  13. Illinois (85) - (102)
  14. Rutgers (149) - (130)
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KenPom is assuming two things.
1) With the percentage of returning scoring and rebounding next year we will automatically be better. See Wisconsin for another example, as well as Michigan, Purdue, and Ohio State for the reverse.

2) Our "luck" factor is beyond overdue to improve. We have finished in the bottom 10% out of 351 teams in KenPom "luck" four of the eight years Fran has been here. If you think the other teams buzzer beater or late clutch shot always goes in, it's because it frequently does. It goes a long way toward explaining Fran's preposterous 22-49 record in games decided by six points or less. Below average guard play, poor late game defense, and questionable coaching probably go a lot further in explaining it.

We will go nowhere in the conference until Fran starts winning at least half of those games no matter who is on the roster or how much experience they have ir what KenPom says about luck. You should hear my Badger friends rip on Fran year after year.
 
Northside Hawk said:
2) Our "luck" factor is beyond overdue to improve. We have finished in the bottom 10% out of 351 teams in KenPom "luck" four of the eight years Fran has been here. If you think the other teams buzzer beater or late clutch shot always goes in, it's because it frequently does. It goes a long way toward explaining Fran's preposterous 22-49 record in games decided by six points or less. Below average guard play, poor late game defense, and questionable coaching probably go a lot further in explaining it.
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This fundamentally misunderstands his "luck" rating. It actually has nothing to do with buzzer beaters or anything like that. Brief explanation:

"Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method."

Basically means that Iowa should have a better record than what they end up with. Basically all of those close losses really hit his luck rating.
 
BryceC said:
This fundamentally misunderstands his "luck" rating. It actually has nothing to do with buzzer beaters or anything like that. Brief explanation:

"Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method."

Basically means that Iowa should have a better record than what they end up with. Basically all of those close losses really hit his luck rating.
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Never heard of that sabermetric! This whole luck thing is KenPom's take and not necessarily mine. The last sentence in paragraph two of my post is solidly my take.

If close losses truly move his luck meter, our 22-49 record in the Fran era in those games certainly qualifies.
 
BigD said:
I think by the time Garza is a senior he will be considered amongst the best big men in the conference. I even believe he will far surpass Cook in over all ability unless Cook finds and develops the ability to shoot the ball from the outside . Learning to play better defense and getting more proficient at blocking shots would also be important for Cook.

Don’t get me wrong as Cook is very explosive around the rim in ways Garza will never be and Cook is among the best in the conference in that regard. However it is very unlikely Cook will ever be able to shoot the ball from the outside like Garza can. Garza has a much more over all game than Cook and in my opinion after it is all said and done I believe Garza will have a higher chance of playing in the NBA than Cook will have. Garza in some ways reminds me of Brad Lohaus who played in the NBA. I think by Garza’s senior year he will be more of an offensive treat under the basket than Brad was if he isn’t already.
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Don’t cha love it when you get it right. I guess even a broken clock is right two times a day, lol.

Did anyone else see this coming back then?
 
BigD said:
Don’t cha love it when you get it right. I guess even a broken clock is right two times a day, lol.

Did anyone else see this coming back then?
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He was always pretty crafty in the post. And had some touch from outside. He shot FTs really well early on too I believe. It just took some development and getting healthy for him to really blossom. Remember prior to him having that cyst removed he played with the dog gone thing for quite awhile. So yeah great call outta you on it. I wasn't sure how much better he'd get then his sophomore yr but was never complaining about his overall game and effort. Dude is gonna go down as the best big guy (if not overall player) Iowa's ever had. It's nuts but awesome. He's worked his ass off for it.
 
Hawkfnntn said:
He was always pretty crafty in the post. And had some touch from outside. He shot FTs really well early on too I believe. It just took some development and getting healthy for him to really blossom. Remember prior to him having that cyst removed he played with the dog gone thing for quite awhile. So yeah great call outta you on it. I wasn't sure how much better he'd get then his sophomore yr but was never complaining about his overall game and effort. Dude is gonna go down as the best big guy (if not overall player) Iowa's ever had. It's nuts but awesome. He's worked his ass off for it.
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Whats really exciting is that the medical field is quickly approaching the rolling out of vaccines to fight Covid. Every day that goes by that these vaccines are being distributing to the public greatly increases the likelihood of us getting to watching this season unfold with as you say and I agree may be the one of it not the best player to ever wear and Iowa uniform.

I would have loved to have seen what Chris could have done if not for his tragic death on that cold winter day. He had greatness written all over himself too.
 
BigD said:
Whats really exciting is that the medical field is quickly approaching the rolling out of vaccines to fight Covid. Every day that goes by that these vaccines are being distributing to the public greatly increases the likelihood of us getting to watching this season unfold with as you say and I agree may be the one of it not the best player to ever wear and Iowa uniform.

I would have loved to have seen what Chris could have done if not for his tragic death on that cold winter day. He had greatness written all over himself too.
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I think Chris would have been Ryan Bowen....in the NBA. And Bowen ended up playing seven or eight years.

As for the rest of his Iowa career he was on track to be an alltimer. Every year he was adding something new to his game. He had learned to complement Acie Earl on the front line. The years in the weight room had helped him.

He would have been the alpha dog his senior year as Earl and several others wouldn't be back. Chris and Russ Millard would have been a wrecking crew on the front line and we also had an experienced James Winters. Jess Settles could have backed them up, or perhaps we could have redshirted Settles. I guarantee we wouldn't have crashed and burned to 4-14 in the conference or whatever the hell it was.
 
Northside Hawk said:
I think Chris would have been Ryan Bowen....in the NBA. And Bowen ended up playing seven or eight years.

As for the rest of his Iowa career he was on track to be an alltimer. Every year he was adding something new to his game. He had learned to complement Acie Earl on the front line. The years in the weight room had helped him.

He would have been the alpha dog his senior year as Earl and several others wouldn't be back. Chris and Russ Millard would have been a wrecking crew on the front line and we also had an experienced James Winters. Jess Settles could have backed them up, or perhaps we could have redshirted Settles. I guarantee we wouldn't have crashed and burned to 4-14 in the conference or whatever the hell it was.
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Well said.
 
Northside Hawk said:
I think Chris would have been Ryan Bowen....in the NBA. And Bowen ended up playing seven or eight years.

As for the rest of his Iowa career he was on track to be an alltimer. Every year he was adding something new to his game. He had learned to complement Acie Earl on the front line. The years in the weight room had helped him.

He would have been the alpha dog his senior year as Earl and several others wouldn't be back. Chris and Russ Millard would have been a wrecking crew on the front line and we also had an experienced James Winters. Jess Settles could have backed them up, or perhaps we could have redshirted Settles. I guarantee we wouldn't have crashed and burned to 4-14 in the conference or whatever the hell it was.
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Yeah Street may have had an even higher ceiling then Bowen. He was just coming into his own it still sucks to think about. Bowen later in his career started hitting corner 3s that helped him get noticed. In the NBA he was pretty much just a hustle guy. Street I think would have ended more then that. Something between what Reggie Evans was (not quite the rebounder or physical play but similar role anyway) and Bowen. The basketball world really missed out on getting to see what he woulda became. It's every bit as tragic as what happened to that MD kid Len Bias. He woulda been a hell of a player too and maybe even gave Jordan a run for his $. Some folks think that.
 
BigD said:
Don’t cha love it when you get it right. I guess even a broken clock is right two times a day, lol.

Did anyone else see this coming back then?
Click to expand...

This is the oldest trick in the book. I always post two opposite thoughts or a range of 4-5 hot takes and then when one of them proves to be right that is the one that I bump and everyone is like "OMG, OK4P is the most genius poster in the history of this board."
 
Hawkfnntn said:
Yeah Street may have had an even higher ceiling then Bowen. He was just coming into his own it still sucks to think about. Bowen later in his career started hitting corner 3s that helped him get noticed. In the NBA he was pretty much just a hustle guy. Street I think would have ended more then that. Something between what Reggie Evans was (not quite the rebounder or physical play but similar role anyway) and Bowen. The basketball world really missed out on getting to see what he woulda became. It's every bit as tragic as what happened to that MD kid Len Bias. He woulda been a hell of a player too and maybe even gave Jordan a run for his $. Some folks think that.
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I think the tragic deaths of Bias and high school legend Ben Wilson helped pave the way for Jordan to become Michael. There was some fate involved there, similar to Andrew Wood's tragic death helping pave the way for Kurt Cobain.

Anyway Bias would have been Dominique Wilkins on steroids in the NBA. He wouldn't have seen the constant zones that coaches attempted to shackle upon him in college, and he would have joined a team that already featured a veritable all star unit led by Larry the Legend.

Imagine this. Ben Wilson would have been on Illinois final four team that already featured Nick Anderson, Kendall Gill, and a roster full of high flyers. I don't think even Lou Henson could have screwed that up. Wilson would have been man to man on Glen Rice in the National semi final game, among other things.
 
okeefe4prez said:
This is the oldest trick in the book. I always post two opposite thoughts or a range of 4-5 hot takes and then when one of them proves to be right that is the one that I bump and everyone is like "OMG, OK4P is the most genius poster in the history of this board."
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My trick is to intentionally leave out a tidbit or two when I tell a story or anecdote. That way I can retell the same story later, insert the bit, and make it sound like a new story.
 
Northside Hawk said:
My trick is to intentionally leave out a tidbit or two when I tell a story or anecdote. That way I can retell the same story later, insert the bit, and make it sound like a new story.
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They may be young and strong, but you have experience on your side! If you can't pound them into submission, dazzle them with bullsh*t. Am I right, huh? I thought so. Thank you.
 
Northside Hawk said:
I think the tragic deaths of Bias and high school legend Ben Wilson helped pave the way for Jordan to become Michael. There was some fate involved there, similar to Andrew Wood's tragic death helping pave the way for Kurt Cobain.

Anyway Bias would have been Dominique Wilkins on steroids in the NBA. He wouldn't have seen the constant zones that coaches attempted to shackle upon him in college, and he would have joined a team that already featured a veritable all star unit led by Larry the Legend.

Imagine this. Ben Wilson would have been on Illinois final four team that already featured Nick Anderson, Kendall Gill, and a roster full of high flyers. I don't think even Lou Henson could have screwed that up. Wilson would have been man to man on Glen Rice in the National semi final game, among other things.
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Yeah Bias woulda been a rookie in like 86 or so I think. Bird, McHale and that crew had a few more good years in them at that point. It was like 88-89 that the Pistons started to get their # but a guy like Bias and also Reggie Lewis was becoming a star in his own right. Woulda really changed the NBA landscape some. Well maybe not changed but kept it the same longer. How they'd have matched up with the Bulls in the early 90s woulda been interesting
 
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