Iowa is Preseason #35
- Thread starter DunderMifflinHk
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lightning1
Well-Known Member
Interesting.
I
Ian Pike Hammer
Guest
There are definitely expectations for this team this year! Is this a good thing?
Hmm.. I wasn't anticipating that. I would have guessed 40-45ish. But hey with all the returning players we have. Cook potentially can be an absolute star. We have some building blocks that being a top 35ish team and getting to the NCAAs is where we damn well outta be. If we can finish in the top 6 or 7 of the BIG and do that I might get off of Frans back I don't think that's too much to ask for with such a veteran group of not only good players but 'his guys'.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
I'd really like to know how he can project that big of a jump in adjusted defense. I want to see the "formula". But I agree. If this Iowa team makes that kind of leap, we are talking about a top 5 finish in the BIG. Maybe top 3.
As a coach, that kind of buy in by the players, that would lead to that sort of transformation, would probably be one of Fran's proudest moments as a HC.
trj
Well-Known Member
This seems like a stat guy that needs to do a eyeball test . He is 10 times smarter than I am. I do not see that type of drastic improvement. but I would love to be wrong about this.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
How does a stat guy come up with some formula that shows that kind of jump? This looks like a stat guy that puts a lot of stock in returning players improvement. I expect we'll be better on the defensive end. What I don't understand is how Ken can come up with that significant of an increase, without a drop in offensive production. I can tell you with 100% certainty that the offensive production will fall if they really are set on being a better defensive team.
trj
Well-Known Member
https://kenpom.com/blog/behold-average-possession-length/
I think the answer is somewhere in there.
Increase the points per possession. That's why I am advocating Iowa shoot more 3(s).
Our points per game would almost certainly drop due to not giving up wide open shots 5 seconds into the shot clock. But points per possession might stay the same due to Wieskamp being here and Garza hopefully playing the whole year like he played the last third of last year.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
I'm not going to attempt to sift through that data. What I can say, is that it takes more energy to play good defense than it does to play the type of defense we played last season. As for increasing points per possession by way of the 3 pt shot, we would have to shoot at a minimum 37% as a team. I don't think we have enough shooters to accomplish that. If Moss would learn how to play without the ball, maybe.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
Points per possession will drop with having to expend more energy on the defensive end. Playing good defense makes your legs tired. Tired legs effect your offensive output.
I get all that. I just think that will be countered to at least some extent by being considerable better at scoring this year (talent wise). We did what we did last year with no 3 at all on offense. Our 3 this year will probably be a top 3 scorer.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
I decided to look at last season's 3 pt stats and we made 252 3pt shots for 37.5%. Good for 59th in the nation in %. That's pretty damn good and much better than I thought it was. Not sure you're going to get your wish of more 3 pt shots for better points per possession/production. That's probably a pipe dream. Especially with Cook and Garza down low.
I was thinking more about less turnovers, more efficient scoring from the 3 position (by a lot) and Garza not starting really slow.
BigD
Well-Known Member
I think by the time Garza is a senior he will be considered amongst the best big men in the conference. I even believe he will far surpass Cook in over all ability unless Cook finds and develops the ability to shoot the ball from the outside . Learning to play better defense and getting more proficient at blocking shots would also be important for Cook.
Don’t get me wrong as Cook is very explosive around the rim in ways Garza will never be and Cook is among the best in the conference in that regard. However it is very unlikely Cook will ever be able to shoot the ball from the outside like Garza can. Garza has a much more over all game than Cook and in my opinion after it is all said and done I believe Garza will have a higher chance of playing in the NBA than Cook will have. Garza in some ways reminds me of Brad Lohaus who played in the NBA. I think by Garza’s senior year he will be more of an offensive treat under the basket than Brad was if he isn’t already.
trj
Well-Known Member
That was on 672 attempts. In contrast Michigan attempted over 300 more than Iowa did. I am not saying Iowa has to have 30 attempts per game, more like increasing that number from 20 attempts a game to 25. 672 attempts is really a low number in today's college basketball.
Imo, basketball has become about shooting the 3 and defending the 3. Iowa allowed their opponents to shoot 37.6% from 3, which is flat out awful. According to KenPom that is 307th in the Nation. If they can get that 37.6 to drop a few percentage points it would make a world of difference.
As I have stated on many occasions I think it will be easier for Iowa to "outscore" their opponents 85-80, than to grind-it-out 66-60.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
I understand that you want to see more 3 pt shots but with Cook and Garza down low, it's not going to happen. Purdue put up the most 3 pt attempts in the BIG, followed by Michigan(2nd). Both of those teams played small ball with more of a SF playing the PF spot, or a stretch 4. They got away with playing that style because they had the athletes to defend and a commitment to play defense. We don't have a roster capable of playing that style.
Allowing that 3pt shooting % is flat out awful and it's due to the fact that our back court can't guard a phone booth. They don't close out on shots. They don't hustle. They aren't fundamentally sound in their help defense. And, when it comes right down to it, they are not athletic enough. You can't possibly convince me that shooting more 3 pt shots will cure these issues enough to challenge for a BIG title. Or make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. We need significant upgrades in athleticism at the 1, 2 and the 3. Right now. As corrupt as college basketball is, I don't expect GG or Fran to pony up and pay the dough, so I don't expect much better results. Another 2nd round blow out loss to a filthy program that does pay their players. That's my expectation.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
This season? NIT bid. Fran's mountain top at Iowa is a 2nd round blow out loss in the NCAA tournament. We'll never see him go any farther than that, IMO. He doesn't recruit well enough.
