Iowa is Preseason #35

[trj]

I understand that you want to see more 3 pt shots but with Cook and Garza down low, it's not going to happen. Purdue put up the most 3 pt attempts in the BIG, followed by Michigan(2nd). Both of those teams played small ball with more of a SF playing the PF spot, or a stretch 4. They got away with playing that style because they had the athletes to defend and a commitment to play defense. We don't have a roster capable of playing that style.
Allowing that 3pt shooting % is flat out awful and it's due to the fact that our back court can't guard a phone booth. They don't close out on shots. They don't hustle. They aren't fundamentally sound in their help defense. And, when it comes right down to it, they are not athletic enough. You can't possibly convince me that shooting more 3 pt shots will cure these issues enough to challenge for a BIG title. Or make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. We need significant upgrades in athleticism at the 1, 2 and the 3. Right now. As corrupt as college basketball is, I don't expect GG or Fran to pony up and pay the dough, so I don't expect much better results. Another 2nd round blow out loss to a filthy program that does pay their players. That's my expectation.

All fair points. That’s why I am hoping KenPom is correct and I am wrong. I expect anywhere from 18-21 wins. That likely translates to the NIT or a bubble tournament team. KenPom’s numbers project out to at least a 23-25 win team.

Obviously, Iowa has to get better defensively, but given how this roster is currently constructed they are limited on what they can do on defense.

That’s why I think they have to “outscore” teams. One way to do that is by shooting more 3(s). Increasing your per game total by 5 or so is all I am talking about.

 

[lightning1]

All fair points. That’s why I am hoping KenPom is correct and I am wrong. I expect anywhere from 18-21 wins. That likely translates to the NIT or a bubble tournament team. KenPom’s numbers project out to at least a 23-25 win team.

Obviously, Iowa has to get better defensively, but given how this roster is currently constructed they are limited on what they can do on defense.

That’s why I think they have to “outscore” teams. One way to do that is by shooting more 3(s). Increasing your per game total by 5 or so is all I am talking about.

I don't follow KenPom, so I don't know how close he is in these pre-season projections. I don't think predicted us finishing 11th last season.

 

[trj]

I don't follow KenPom, so I don't know how close he is in these pre-season projections. I don't think predicted us finishing 11th last season.

No one saw last season's trainwreck coming. They lost Jok, but he didn't play any defense while he was here. That Jok team of 2 years ago wasn't great defensively, but to completely fall off the map on defense the way they did, Fran has to look in the mirror on that one.

As I stated before, the win total will probably be somewhere in the 18-21 range. I am in the middle, I am not 100% stat guy, nor am I 100% eyeball test guy. Fran's "good" teams, the adj D numbers have been in the high 70's, to the low 90's. If Iowa gets past the 18-21 win total, it means the Adj D numbers are below 100. Maybe wishful thinking on my part, but I am willing to roll with it.

 

[PCHawk]

Someone asked him why he had iowa with such improved defensive numbers and he said he would imagine most power 5 schools that have sub 200 defenses one year show massive improvement the following year. It makes sense. If you're that bad on defense, you work on it hard in the off season and improve a lot.

 

[trj]

Someone asked him why he had iowa with such improved defensive numbers and he said he would imagine most power 5 schools that have sub 200 defenses one year show massive improvement the following year. It makes sense. If you're that bad on defense, you work on it hard in the off season and improve a lot.

"Improves a lot" means going from 242nd in Adj D(where Iowa was) to like 123rd. His 81st projection is a 5 seed in the tournament. That's beyond a "massive improvement" that's gigantic, it means FM is not only getting kids to buy in, he is overcoming their defiencies.

 

[lightning1]

No one saw last season's trainwreck coming. They lost Jok, but he didn't play any defense while he was here. That Jok team of 2 years ago wasn't great defensively, but to completely fall off the map on defense the way they did, Fran has to look in the mirror on that one.

As I stated before, the win total will probably be somewhere in the 18-21 range. I am in the middle, I am not 100% stat guy, nor am I 100% eyeball test guy. Fran's "good" teams, the adj D numbers have been in the high 70's, to the low 90's. If Iowa gets past the 18-21 win total, it means the Adj D numbers are below 100. Maybe wishful thinking on my part, but I am willing to roll with it.

I think I predicted 19 -20 wins before last season. That's what I am predicting again for this season. I based last season's predictions on lack of talent/athleticism and I am basing this season's predictions on the same thing.

 

[lightning1]

"Improves a lot" means going from 242nd in Adj D(where Iowa was) to like 123rd. His 81st projection is a 5 seed in the tournament. That's beyond a "massive improvement" that's gigantic, it means FM is not only getting kids to buy in, he is overcoming their defiencies.

Agreed. If Iowa makes that leap, the offensive #s will end up tanking into the 80-120 range as a result.

 

[ClintonIAfan]

They will surpass that level by far. This is one of the most talented rosters I've ever seen.

 

[Ian Pike Hammer]

Adj D he has projected to be 81st. Last year it was 242nd. If Iowa's D is that much better this will be a fun season to watch.

It better be!!

https://kenpom.com/blog/behold-average-possession-length/

I think the answer is somewhere in there.

Increase the points per possession. That's why I am advocating Iowa shoot more 3(s).

That was on 672 attempts. In contrast Michigan attempted over 300 more than Iowa did. I am not saying Iowa has to have 30 attempts per game, more like increasing that number from 20 attempts a game to 25. 672 attempts is really a low number in today's college basketball.

Imo, basketball has become about shooting the 3 and defending the 3. Iowa allowed their opponents to shoot 37.6% from 3, which is flat out awful. According to KenPom that is 307th in the Nation. If they can get that 37.6

That was on 672 attempts. In contrast Michigan attempted over 300 more than Iowa did. I am not saying Iowa has to have 30 attempts per game, more like increasing that number from 20 attempts a game to 25. 672 attempts is really a low number in today's college basketball.
Imo, basketball has become about shooting the 3 and defending the 3. Iowa allowed their opponents to shoot 37.6% from 3, which is flat out awful. According to KenPom that is 307th in the Nation. If they can get that 37.6 to drop a few percentage points it would make a world of difference.

As I have stated on many occasions I think it will be easier for Iowa to "outscore" their opponents 85-80, than to grind-it-out 66-60.

There is "proof in the pudding". 2 or 3 years ago, a team from Florida, [FCCC, Atlantic, Coastal?] led the nation in 3 pt fg's att's and 3's made. I saw 1 one their gms on tv. They literally pushed the ball down the court and shot a 3, nearly every possession! They rarely shot a 2! Don't recall what % they shot, but 1 out of 3 meant a boatload of made 3's and alotta pts per gm.They won their league and I believe, their league tourney too. Granted, they lost in the 1st or 2nd round, but they made the NCAA tourney. I'm hoping someone w/ a far better memory than mine will fill in the missing names, thankx!

 

[PCHawk]

Agreed. If Iowa makes that leap, the offensive #s will end up tanking into the 80-120 range as a result.

Why on earth would their offense tank that low as a result of playing mediocre defense at best? They aren't even capable of a top 70 offense if their defense gets in the 80s?

 

[PCHawk]

"Improves a lot" means going from 242nd in Adj D(where Iowa was) to like 123rd. His 81st projection is a 5 seed in the tournament. That's beyond a "massive improvement" that's gigantic, it means FM is not only getting kids to buy in, he is overcoming their defiencies.

I thought I read somewhere that Woody's freshman year made that big of a defensive jump.

 

[lightning1]

Why on earth would their offense tank that low as a result of playing mediocre defense at best? They aren't even capable of a top 70 offense if their defense gets in the 80s?

In order for them to make a 160 spot jump in defensive rankings, I believe their offense will drop accordingly. It's a theory. I've seen what happens to a player's energy level when they really bust their tail on defense. If they aren't a naturally gifted athlete, it takes a lot out of the legs.

 

[lightning1]

I thought I read somewhere that Woody's freshman year made that big of a defensive jump.

They did. They added Gesell and Clemmons to the roster to go with Marble, May and Ogelsby. That's what happens when you take athletically gifted players and get them to engage defensively. That's 5 back court defenders that are better than any guy on our current roster. But their offense dropped 40 spots in the process.

 

[Northside Hawk]

They did. They added Gesell and Clemmons to the roster to go with Marble, May and Ogelsby. That's what happens when you take athletically gifted players and get them to engage defensively. That's 5 back court defenders that are better than any guy on our current roster. But their offense dropped 40 spots in the process.

When made our NIT run in 2013, which may have been Fran's finest hour at Iowa, it may have also been our best run of team defense. I don't have all the numbers in front of me, but I believe our points allowed during the four games we won were 52, 63, 64, and 60 (Indiana State, Stony Brook, Virginia, and Maryland). I want to say we scored 69, 75, 75, and 71. In that example we did give up some scoring, in terms of points, in favor of tougher defense and one could surmise that the effort we expended on the defensive end did knock our scoring down. We also came within one win of an NIT championship.

Another factor may have been that playing better half court defense forced teams to go deeper in the shot clock and decreased possessions for both teams. Someone would have to delve deeper into the numbers the verify but it's possible or likely.

 

[Cableman]

I understand what you are saying and I do agree with it to a certain extent however I don't think the offense needs or will suffer as much as you think it will. The example you gave was one of Fran's best defensive teams but none of the players that you mentioned, other than Marble really looked to be a offensive leader/scorer and I don't think it was because they were saving energy for defense.
The team we have now has more and better shooters, defense improvement needs to start with better communication. Hopefully their focus has been time well spent

 

[PCHawk]

I understand what you are saying and I do agree with it to a certain extent however I don't think the offense needs or will suffer as much as you think it will. The example you gave was one of Fran's best defensive teams but none of the players that you mentioned, other than Marble really looked to be a offensive leader/scorer and I don't think it was because they were saving energy for defense.
The team we have now has more and better shooters, defense improvement needs to start with better communication. Hopefully their focus has been time well spent

I agree with this. Our offense is going to be considerably more talented this year. Our offensive numbers will probably still drop some because of the reasons lightning pointed out. I just don't think it will be near as drastic as he suggests. We are replacing Baer with one of the best scorers in iowa history.

 

[PCHawk]

In my opinion, Bohannon and maybe Garza are the only 2 guys in the rotation that have quickness issues for guarding their position.

 

[lightning1]

When made our NIT run in 2013, which may have been Fran's finest hour at Iowa, it may have also been our best run of team defense. I don't have all the numbers in front of me, but I believe our points allowed during the four games we won were 52, 63, 64, and 60 (Indiana State, Stony Brook, Virginia, and Maryland). I want to say we scored 69, 75, 75, and 71. In that example we did give up some scoring, in terms of points, in favor of tougher defense and one could surmise that the effort we expended on the defensive end did knock our scoring down. We also came within one win of an NIT championship.

Another factor may have been that playing better half court defense forced teams to go deeper in the shot clock and decreased possessions for both teams. Someone would have to delve deeper into the numbers the verify but it's possible or likely.

This is typically what happens. You have to be extremely athletic as a team, to play great defense and have a potent offense.

 

[InGoodCo]

This season? NIT bid. Fran's mountain top at Iowa is a 2nd round blow out loss in the NCAA tournament. We'll never see him go any farther than that, IMO. He doesn't recruit well enough.

we have $50 on this - even if you have me on ignore.

 

[BryceC]

He has ISU at 25th, projecting massive improvements in both offense and defense. For both of our sakes I hope he's right.