Iowa is 9.5 opening dog to Wisconsin

HuckFinn said:
I think Iowa’s best shot vs Bucky comes down to solid D, good special teams and big plays on O. We are not going to run the clock with time of possession. A breakaway in the run game, an unexpected TD in the passing game, as in the Purdue win, and no more Field Goal misses. Maybe Iowa scores 20 points and the D takes a step up and holds WI to 17.

BTW, the weather. Cool, windy, gusts, and rain. Who ya’ got?
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I would say that’s a pretty fair analysis. The defense needs to hold Wisconsin’s offense down for us to have a chance, and we have to avoid turnovers.
 
BigD said:
I would say that’s a pretty fair analysis. The defense needs to hold Wisconsin’s offense down for us to have a chance, and we have to avoid turnovers.
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Deacon just needs to hit a few passes early to back off their defense and we will win this thing by multiple possessions. Wisconsin has played no one and the game will likely be played in bad weather, so I really like Iowa's chances. Problem will be if we don't orchestrate early and start the game with 3 possessions that yield 11 plays on offense we will struggle to break 100 yards and lose handily.
 
BigD said:
I would say that’s a pretty fair analysis. The defense needs to hold Wisconsin’s offense down for us to have a chance, and we have to avoid turnovers.
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Yep. Two chunk play TDs either from offense, defense, or STs, and 2-3 field goals.

20+ might hold up in a knife fight in a phone booth sort of game.
 
NorthKCHawk said:
Yep. Two chunk play TDs either from offense, defense, or STs, and 2-3 field goals.

20+ might hold up in a knife fight in a phone booth sort of game.
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Damn near every Iowa game is a race to 17-20 pts. Whomever gets there first pretty much wins. Need Stephens to quit missing makeable fgs (the one that got blocked looked like it was going left anyway) we were lucky those didn't end up mattering last game.

Iowa's D is good but they aren't last yrs Iowa D. Expecting them to hold Wisky to 14 or so is a big ask. O has to do more than nothing to have a chance. And that seems to be a big ask too
 
If you are Wisky's HC, don't you look at your offense and say, "look, as long as we don't turn the ball over or give up a play on a punt, we will win the game. Iowa's offense may hit 1-2 big plays, but they won't sustain drives for TDs. Our D will hold them to FGs and punts. So, just don't turn it over and we will score enough to win."
 
NorthKCHawk said:
If you are Wisky's HC, don't you look at your offense and say, "look, as long as we don't turn the ball over or give up a play on a punt, we will win the game. Iowa's offense may hit 1-2 big plays, but they won't sustain drives for TDs. Our D will hold them to FGs and punts. So, just don't turn it over and we will score enough to win."
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Yep and if I'm fickle......I blitz Iowa offense over and over again.
 
HaydenHawk56 said:
Yep and if I'm fickle......I blitz Iowa offense over and over again.
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Why wouldn't everyone? If I'm every opponent of Iowa's I'd put 8 dudes in the box within 5 yards of the LOS every play. Blitzing most of the time. Shut down the run and get quick pressure on Hill. Make him make quick decisions with the ball and having to be accurate seems like a no brainer.

What's the over/under for WR catches this game? 2.5? Hell Iowa doesn't even throw those WR screens to them anymore that we used to over use. All I know is 6 completions for like 120 yards won't beat Wisky or any good team with a pulse.
 
All depends on which Deacon we get. Starter Deacon or back up Deacon. Starter Deacon, we're done, the D cannot do enough to win it with that poor of play and time of possession. Back up Deacon could be enough. Back up+ Deacon, that's a W unless we turn the ball over more than 1, and with the way he played Saturday, I know everyone is looking for the +. Hope Deacon can get his head out of his dooflanker so we can watch the boys keep the Bull and enjoy another W.
 
I would actually feel better about our chances if this game was at home. I am sure it was a night mare trying to call out signals and snap counts at Penn State and I expect the Wisconsin crowd to be quit loud also.
 
Vegas started this line a lot closer. This is not sharp money, but fan money driving the line up. I bet the sharp money comes in late and drives the line back down. This is going to be a touchdown game one way or the other.
 
Gibsonian said:
All depends on which Deacon we get. Starter Deacon or back up Deacon. Starter Deacon, we're done, the D cannot do enough to win it with that poor of play and time of possession. Back up Deacon could be enough. Back up+ Deacon, that's a W unless we turn the ball over more than 1, and with the way he played Saturday, I know everyone is looking for the +. Hope Deacon can get his head out of his dooflanker so we can watch the boys keep the Bull and enjoy another W.
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Just stop it already. I don't start to get hopeful until Thursday when the weekend is nearing.
And, this weekend, for me....will actually be in Iowa City to see my kid.
Traveling with my best mate from childhood who grew up 2 doors away from me here in STL.
His kid transferred there last year. We're road tripping.
I'm gonna be extra giddy approaching this weekend. So....let's not get ahead of ourselves on Tuesday.
Give me a few more days of dour grumbling with no chance of hope.
 
I pulled some numbers from the NCAA and if you only make an offensive comparison Wisconsin is obviously better statistically, But if you dig deeper into the numbers this isn't a great Wisconsin defense. You'll also note that when they face a better defense their point production drops below 25. The difference on Rush Defense is the PSU game where Iowa was on D for 97 plays. I believe Iowa's rush defense is better than 55. I thought the penalty numbers were of interest. Wisconsin is averaging over 5 penalties per game to Iowa's 3.
Iowa should be able to generate some offense against Wisconsin. If Iowa could get to 24 on offense that might do it.
Wisconsin Opponents
Buffalo (38 to 17),
Wash St (22 to 31),
Ga Southern (35 TO 14),
Purdue (38 TO 17),
Rutgers (24 TO 13) - 4 W AND 1 L

NCAA Ranks:
Wisconsin Opponents' Ranks :
Buffalo 75 Off and 112 Def,
Wash St 12 on Off and 66 Def,
Ga Southern 29 Off and 36 Def,
Purdue 75 Off and 87 Def,
Rutgers Off 75 and Def 13

Iowa's Opponents Ranks:
Utah St (15 Off 108 Def),
ISU (104 Off 46 Def),
W Michigan (84 Off and 127 Def),
Penn State (11 Off 2 Def) ,
MSU (108 Off Def 56),
Purdue (75 Off and 87 Def)

Wisc vs Iowa Comparison:
Rush Def: Wisc 27 Iowa 55 (Remember PSU major factor)
Score Def: Wisc 56 Iowa 16
Pass Off: Wisc 90 Iowa 128
Rush Off: Wisc 17 Iowa 106
Fewest Penalties: Wisc: 28/243 Yards Iowa:17/ 64 Yards (Iowa one more game)
Punting: Wisc 27 Iowa 2
Pass Efficiency Def: Wisc 26 Iowa 13
Red Zone: Wisc 8 Iowa 12
 
NorthKCHawk said:
Vegas started this line a lot closer. This is not sharp money, but fan money driving the line up. I bet the sharp money comes in late and drives the line back down. This is going to be a touchdown game one way or the other.
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For us more likely two fields goals and a safety to equal every touchdown.
 
CP87 said:
I'll take the under.
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If the weather is rainy with a 15+ mph wind like the last forecast I saw I will take the over. One bubble screen. One jailbreak screen. One 3 yard slant on 3rd and 4 that leads to a punt. Three catches, 8 yards, 0 TDs.
 
The last 4 wins for Iowa in Madison were:
2015, 2009, 2005 and 2003.

2015 Iowa team: 12-2 (Finished the season ranked #9)
2009 Iowa team: 11-2 (Finished the season ranked #7)
2005: Iowa team 7-5. (Finished unranked. This was the Mitch King game.)
2003: Iowa teams 10-3 (Finished the season ranked #8).

Iowa teams have to be REALLY good to win at Madison.

This past summer, I thought with new coaches at Wisconsin and expectations of an improved offense, that Iowa had no less than a 40% of winning this game.
This past summer, you could bet this game, with Wisconsin as a 4.5 point favorite.

Now, there is a reason why the over/under is 36 and Wisconsin is favored by 10.
The market is saying a 23-13 Wisconsin win.
 
okeefe4prez said:
That Ohio game was one of the greatest games ever played. I remember the one in '04 as well. In '04 my buddy and I sat in the stadium in disbelief until they shut the scoreboard off and Per Mar kicked us out. Hard to believe that next year will mark the 20th anniversary of Ferentz's last conference crown.
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That was the peak of the "Kirk is a hot NFL candidate" talk, much of which was just that. But talk about finding ways to win.

Score six at Happy Valley but find a way to give up four.

Barber and Maroney run wild in us in the Metrodome, but we keep forcing field goals, then Greenway comes up huge with sack, and forces their game winning attempt out of range.

Wisconsin comes in with the title on the line-and turns it over seven times. We survive again.

Capitol One bowl. Tate to Holloway. Enough said.
 
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