Then what the heck are you saying? Are you saying don't extend him at all if we lose early?
OK, we clearly see this differently, no reason we can't stay civil. Here's why I said your post was built on false assumptions. In short, there is no sense of urgency.
"... he was getting the extension either way. Iowa was literally in a better or at worst same position by doing it now rather than waiting until after the tournament."
How so? If IOWA doesn't go deep Barta has played his cards too soon (and possibly given Fran more than his performance warrants). Therefore it's possible to be in a better negotiating position if the team doesn't do well and Fran has another early out. (Which I hope to hell doesn't happen and don't expect).
To say IOWA would be in a worse position later likely assumes one or more of the following;
-Fran is interested in leaving IC. Highly unlikely, he has 2 boys in the program and is pretty entrenched. That can always change but there's zero indication that he's thinking that.
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Other schools are going to come knocking on the door offering big money. Again, no sign of that. If it did happen, you're assuming it would be a big enough program to drive up the price. Those are few and far between...and many probably not interested in Fran.
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If IOWA makes a big run, say a Final Four or even better, Fran would demand bigger money than he just got, so Barta just got a "good deal". Much as I'd love that to happen, it's against the odds. If it does, what's to keep Fran (or his agent) from coming back to Barta asking for more anyway. Nothing, it's been done before.
In addition, consider this. Terms of the extension haven't been released, but the current contract had a "departure penalty" of $2M to start out, reduced by $250,000 each year. If the extension terms are similar (we haven't seen them yet) that means if a blue blood really did come for Fran...the financial roadblock to stop it is small. (Hoiberg's contract, for example requires him to pay $10M+ if he leaves now).
So unless there's a surprise in the new contract it doesn't guarantee Fran stays.
Fran has had a great year, he's deserving. You want incoming recruits to see their coach signed for the full four years so this is the year for an extension. But there's no sense of urgency so I (and apparently many others) think Barta should have waited. If the team crushes it in the tourney, it's a reward extension. If they stumble it's a vote of confidence in Fran.
But, now they have to perform well, or it will look bad. Gary may be good at fund raising and admin, but he's lousy at PR and timing.