Iowa at Maryland - Tale of the Tape

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dirtwrap

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Next one up. We have already seen these guys once, so it will be a familiar foe. However, it was in Iowa City so how do the numbers look when we have to play in College Park?

In Big Ten play:

- Maryland hits 7.3 three's at home and Iowa hits 7 threes per game away.
- Maryland holds their opponents to 3.8 made threes at home, Iowa's away opponents hit 8.3 threes.
- Maryland shoots 31.1% from three at home and 33.1% on the road.
- Iowa shoots 38.8% from three at home and only 25.9% on the road.
- Maryland has shot a greater percentage from three at home than their opponent in all 4 of their games (4-0)
- Iowa has shot better then 2 of their 4 opponents away from three (1-3)
- Maryland has 17.8 FTA per game at home, Iowa has 16 FTA away.
- Maryland's home opponents have 12.8 FTA per game, Iowa's away opponents have 25.8 FTA.
- Maryland has more FTA than 3 of their 4 home opponents (4-0)
- Iowa has less FTA than all 4 of their away opponents (1-3)
- Maryland has commits 11.5 turnovers per game at home, Iowa commits 10 turnovers per game away.
- Maryland's home opponents commit 12.8 turnovers per game, Iowa's away opponents commit 9.3 turnovers per game.
- Maryland gets 37.5 rebounds at home while their opponents get 34.8.
- Iowa gets 38.3 rebounds per game away, while their away opponents get 36.8.
- Maryland gets 10.3 offensive rebounds at home and gives up 12.3.
- Iowa gets 13.3 offensive rebounds on the road and their away opponents get 11.5.

In the first meeting between these two teams:

- Iowa hit 9 three's to Maryland's 4
- Iowa shot 39.1% from three while Maryland shot 18.2%
- Maryland held an advantage in FTA 20-14. However, Iowa held the advantage in made FT's 12-11
- Iowa committed 18 turnovers while Maryland committed 17.
- Iowa held a rebounding advantage of 44-32, and 15-9 on offensive boards.

So what happens here? According to trends, there wont be any major advantage with regards to turnovers. Iowa trends to have an advantage with offensive rebounding. Trends do show that Maryland will have an advantage with free throw attempts, trending toward +10. Maryland trends to hit more three's than Iowa as well by +2. Adding all that up, trends point toward a Maryland 12-15 point victory.

For Iowa to win, assuming that turnovers and rebounding are going to be a wash, Iowa will have to reverse the trend and hold an advantage in FTA's and made three's. Because of pace of play, I will say if Iowa hits 8 threes, 4 per half, and holds Maryland to under 12 FTA's, we will win this game.
 
I just hope Iowa has been practicing with an Adidas ball. You see what happened at Nebraska with an Adidas. We also didn’t have CJF for the Maryland game at home so I hope that also helps.
 
ModebaSan said:
I just hope Iowa has been practicing with an Adidas ball. You see what happened at Nebraska with an Adidas. We also didn’t have CJF for the Maryland game at home so I hope that also helps.
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I am pretty sure that Maryland uses the Under Armour ball. Our latest experience with this was at Northwestern, and we did shoot 45.5% from three and hit 10 of them.
 
InGoodCo said:
Good break down - but highly unlikely Iowa is gonna hold them to under 12 FTA based on the info you just laid out.
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I agree, it certainly doesn't look good with regards to that. In our home game against them, they got 20 FTA's on only 15 fouls. Looks like we are going to have to shoot the lights out.
 
dirtwrap said:
Next one up. We have already seen these guys once, so it will be a familiar foe. However, it was in Iowa City so how do the numbers look when we have to play in College Park?

In Big Ten play:

- Maryland hits 7.3 three's at home and Iowa hits 7 threes per game away.
- Maryland holds their opponents to 3.8 made threes at home, Iowa's away opponents hit 8.3 threes.
- Maryland shoots 31.1% from three at home and 33.1% on the road.
- Iowa shoots 38.8% from three at home and only 25.9% on the road.
- Maryland has shot a greater percentage from three at home than their opponent in all 4 of their games (4-0)
- Iowa has shot better then 2 of their 4 opponents away from three (1-3)
- Maryland has 17.8 FTA per game at home, Iowa has 16 FTA away.
- Maryland's home opponents have 12.8 FTA per game, Iowa's away opponents have 25.8 FTA.
- Maryland has more FTA than 3 of their 4 home opponents (4-0)
- Iowa has less FTA than all 4 of their away opponents (1-3)
- Maryland has commits 11.5 turnovers per game at home, Iowa commits 10 turnovers per game away.
- Maryland's home opponents commit 12.8 turnovers per game, Iowa's away opponents commit 9.3 turnovers per game.
- Maryland gets 37.5 rebounds at home while their opponents get 34.8.
- Iowa gets 38.3 rebounds per game away, while their away opponents get 36.8.
- Maryland gets 10.3 offensive rebounds at home and gives up 12.3.
- Iowa gets 13.3 offensive rebounds on the road and their away opponents get 11.5.

In the first meeting between these two teams:

- Iowa hit 9 three's to Maryland's 4
- Iowa shot 39.1% from three while Maryland shot 18.2%
- Maryland held an advantage in FTA 20-14. However, Iowa held the advantage in made FT's 12-11
- Iowa committed 18 turnovers while Maryland committed 17.
- Iowa held a rebounding advantage of 44-32, and 15-9 on offensive boards.

So what happens here? According to trends, there wont be any major advantage with regards to turnovers. Iowa trends to have an advantage with offensive rebounding. Trends do show that Maryland will have an advantage with free throw attempts, trending toward +10. Maryland trends to hit more three's than Iowa as well by +2. Adding all that up, trends point toward a Maryland 12-15 point victory.

For Iowa to win, assuming that turnovers and rebounding are going to be a wash, Iowa will have to reverse the trend and hold an advantage in FTA's and made three's. Because of pace of play, I will say if Iowa hits 8 threes, 4 per half, and holds Maryland to under 12 FTA's, we will win this game.
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Yeah Iowa hitting 3s is a pretty good barometer of what kind of game they'll have. Assuming Iowa keeps their TOs to around 10 or less and rebounds like they normally do it comes down to hitting some 3s. It's not even about hitting the tough ones at the end of the shot clock. We rarely run up against that. It's about hitting the open good looks we often get. It seems like when JW is off so is CJF and the rest. We can survive one guy having an off game. But having 2 or 3 guys being off makes it big time tough...
 
Iowa has proven they can win ugly at home. They have also proven they cannot do so on the road. That is not exactly a hot take. Garza is going to get his, but does that mean 18 or 30? Probably needs to be closer to the latter. If CJ and JW are both on offensively, I like our chances. But, hoping that all three of our scorers are all on in one road game is a big IF.
 
Another interesting trend is the score. Maryland averages 64.5 points per game at home with a high of 75. Iowa averages 80.5 on the road with a low of 70. Even with such terrible shooting against Nebraska and Wisconsin, we still scored 70 and 68 points respectively, whereas Maryland has scored 57,59,67 and 75 at home and only scored 49 against us. We certainly have the edge in overall offensive efficiency.
 
The numbers are an okay thing to look at to give a picture, but the sample size is so small. These games typically come down to matchups.

Iowa did not play well offensively last time we played Maryland. We shot 37% from the floor and turned the ball over 17 times. We didn’t have CJ though.

Iowa’s biggest weakness right now is inability to defend the pick and roll. Which means Iowa is going to have to play a lot of zone in this one and hope to catch Maryland on an off shooting night. It’s possible because Ayala and Morsell haven’t been great from distance but in a one game setting they can get hot. (Our buddy Harper Jr. from Rutgers is 0/4 on 3s and has scored 12 total points in two games since dropping 29 on us in Iowa City).

Offensively I think it comes down to Iowa’s non big 3. If we can get something like 25-30 points out of Joe T, Cmac, Kriener, Evelyn, and Pemsl we have a shot.
 
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NorthKCHawk said:
Iowa has proven they can win ugly at home. They have also proven they cannot do so on the road. That is not exactly a hot take. Garza is going to get his, but does that mean 18 or 30? Probably needs to be closer to the latter. If CJ and JW are both on offensively, I like our chances. But, hoping that all three of our scorers are all on in one road game is a big IF.
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I agree. I think we have to think we are going to get exactly zero out of Pemsl and Eveyln, and anything out of CMac will be a bonus. So that leaves 5 guys to get 75-80 points, what I think it will take to win the game. Garza will have to go for 25, Wieskamp 20, CJ 15, JoeT 10 and Kriener 10.
 
Hawks are 3-2 on the road. So they can win on the road. Need to limit turnovers and win the rebounding battle. Those two things usually give you a chance to win. Shooting percentages are always the wild card to me. We have some really good shooters along with Garza. Hawks have nothing to lose going into this game. Expected to lose.

Some bench scoring would help also.
 
dirtwrap said:
I agree, it certainly doesn't look good with regards to that. In our home game against them, they got 20 FTA's on only 15 fouls. Looks like we are going to have to shoot the lights out.
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or shoot a lot of Frees ourselves.
We didn’t shoot FGs well the first time we played (they shot worse) and we still won.

looking back at that game’s stats it’s hard to see an 18 pt blowout.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
The numbers are an okay thing to look at to give a picture, but the sample size is so small. These games typically come down to matchups.

Iowa did not play well offensively last time we played Maryland. We shot 37% from the floor and turned the ball over 17 times. We didn’t have CJ though.

Iowa’s biggest weakness right now is inability to defend the pick and roll. Which means Iowa is going to have to play a lot of zone in this one and hope to catch Maryland on an off shooting night. It’s possible because Ayala and Morsell haven’t been great from distance but in a one game setting they can get hot. (Our buddy Harper Jr. from Rutgers is 0/4 on 3s and has scored 12 total points since dropping 29 on us in Iowa City).

Offensively I think it comes down to Iowa’s non big 3. If we can get something like 25-30 points out of Joe T, Cmac, Kriener, Evelyn, and Pemsl we have a shot.
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I like your detailed look at it. Its interesting you bring up Iowa's weakness in the screen and roll. I specifically went back and watched the game to look for this action, and from what I see Maryland has 1 guy on the entire team that will set a screen. Their bigs don't move either and they dont run any action to try to get them the ball. Their entire game is predicated on dribble drive and dish. We have struggled with defending that too, but its hard to make a living do that like Maryland does. This a great game where you have one team that wants to execute motion and action away from the ball to generate good shots and another that relies solely on athleticism.
 
dirtwrap said:
I like your detailed look at it. Its interesting you bring up Iowa's weakness in the screen and roll. I specifically went back and watched the game to look for this action, and from what I see Maryland has 1 guy on the entire team that will set a screen. Their bigs don't move either and they dont run any action to try to get them the ball. Their entire game is predicated on dribble drive and dish. We have struggled with defending that too, but its hard to make a living do that like Maryland does. This a great game where you have one team that wants to execute motion and action away from the ball to generate good shots and another that relies solely on athleticism.
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That’s a good point I wondered how much pick and roll they did. Honestly they laid an egg at Iowa and just looked uninterested.

In their game at Wisconsin they did a ton of high pick and roll with Cowan and Smith. Iowa would have a tough time with that. The good thing is we can switch to zone if need be.

I consider this a house money game. I really don’t think we will win, quite frankly we might lose handily, but with the current win streak we are on we are playing with house money. Go out there and maybe we light it up from deep and maybe can steal one.
 
I don’t think Iowa gets intimidated playing on the road. That’s a good trait. And I don’t think Iowa panics if the other team goes up double figures. That’s also a good thing...especially on the road.

There are 3 variables completely out of our control IMO. Most teams...including Maryland...play much better at home than on the road. Home teams typically have an officiating advantage. Maryland had an extra day to prepare.

I’m glad we had a bad shooting night against a weaker team and pulled out the win. I expect us to have a much better shooting night at Maryland...a team we aren’t likely to beat shooting poorly.

I think we can win this game but I’m not expecting us to win. But this team has been one pleasant surprise after another...and may be better than any of us realize. Win the next 2 and we become a serious contender for the Big 10 championship...observation not prediction.
 
SteveGarvey1 said:
To expound slightly, aren't B1G road teams like 12-45 or something this year?
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Illinois has 3 of those and there’s somebody on here that says they’re not for real.

@Wisconsin
@Purdue
@Michigan

The last two in the same week

Illinois is for real.
 
Hopefully the officials goal to help even the home/away record continues tomorrow. They almost had us Monday.
 
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