Iowa at Maryland - Tale of the Tape

Illinois has 3 of those and there’s somebody on here that says they’re not for real.

@Wisconsin
@Purdue
@Michigan

The last two in the same week

Illinois is for real.

Cockburn is quietly averaging near a double double. He has been a big help to this team. They are legit for sure. They lost at Maryland by 1 also.
 
I feel like we are due for a loss. Being at a very good opponent with a score to settle, I’m thinking 8-12 points. Here’s hoping I am completely wrong, but I am ok to get a bad game ‘out of our system’
 
I feel like we are due for a loss. Being at a very good opponent with a score to settle, I’m thinking 8-12 points. Here’s hoping I am completely wrong, but I am ok to get a bad game ‘out of our system’

If we are going to lose, I almost would want to get trucked. It's still only one loss and maybe it would get their mind right for another winning streak.
 
Not that I want to see us lose or even get behind, but I think one thing that we haven't seen yet is the resilience on the road when things don't go our way. I watched the beginning of the MSU at Indiana game the other day, and MSU got down 20-6 and Indiana had all the momentum, crowd in it, etc. As much as I despise Izzo, he called them in the huddle and calmly talked to them about how they were going to get back in the game and here they came. They still lost at the end, but they were never out of it. I would like to know how we would respond to a similar situation, and looking at our remaining road schedule I am sure we are going to find out.
 
This is going to come down to whether we can make 3's or not. If we do, it obviously helps our overall efficiency and scoring and opens up the lane for Garza. It will also help negate what I'm sure will be a huge FTA difference since we're on the road. I swear that the last several B1G games I've watched, the home team is something like +20 in FTA vs the road team. No wonder the home teams are like an 80% winner so far this year.

If we can't hit 3's, then we probably lose by 10-12.
 
Not that I want to see us lose or even get behind, but I think one thing that we haven't seen yet is the resilience on the road when things don't go our way. I watched the beginning of the MSU at Indiana game the other day, and MSU got down 20-6 and Indiana had all the momentum, crowd in it, etc. As much as I despise Izzo, he called them in the huddle and calmly talked to them about how they were going to get back in the game and here they came. They still lost at the end, but they were never out of it. I would like to know how we would respond to a similar situation, and looking at our remaining road schedule I am sure we are going to find out.

I see what you're saying, but I'm not sure that's any different than what happened in Ames where they came back and got in the game, had all the momentum, and the crowd was going nuts. Overcoming that is pretty much the same thing as the scenario you laid out.
 
This is going to come down to whether we can make 3's or not. If we do, it obviously helps our overall efficiency and scoring and opens up the lane for Garza. It will also help negate what I'm sure will be a huge FTA difference since we're on the road. I swear that the last several B1G games I've watched, the home team is something like +20 in FTA vs the road team. No wonder the home teams are like an 80% winner so far this year.

If we can't hit 3's, then we probably lose by 10-12.
Maybe it will due the team good to have a game they are "supposed to lose". The last 4 were tough games they knew they had to have. That puts pressure on them. This is an ok game to lose and they haven't had one of those for awhile. Maybe they will feel more loose and just let them fly.
 
Worst case scenario is that we play well and shoot well and still find a way to lose, then have a stinker vs Illinois on Sunday. Sort of a repeat of Penn State-Nebraska sequence
 
The games against Maryland and Illinois will have a profound affect on where Iowa finishes in the conference. For once I am hoping that Iowa can finish at least 4th. Since they beat Maryland earlier a loss only neutralizes Iowa's position. Losing to Illinois on Sunday at home would be detrimental to a top 4 finish since they have a road game against Illinois to end the season. Getting a road win against Maryland would make up for that road loss at Nebraska and provide some distance from the teams behind Iowa.

After Sunday only two games remain with teams ahead of Iowa in the standings, @MSU and @Illinois. If Iowa can get the Illinois game on Sunday they should be in pretty good shape to finish in the top four provided the team can stay healthy. After Sunday four of the last 8 games are against Indiana and Purdue. I would rank these four games as winnable and add Ohio State, Penn State and Nebraska to the more winnable category. Only the @MSU game appears to be to big a hill to climb. 12 and 8 should get Iowa a fourth place finish.
 
Worst case scenario is that we play well and shoot well and still find a way to lose, then have a stinker vs Illinois on Sunday. Sort of a repeat of Penn State-Nebraska sequence

I actually like their chances of winning more tonight than on Sunday. Sunday afternoon games are a dud and the crowd seldom gets into it. That could work into Illinois favor alot if Iowa wins a big one in primetime tonight but has to come back for a Sunday afternoon game on a short turnaround.
 
The games against Maryland and Illinois will have a profound affect on where Iowa finishes in the conference. For once I am hoping that Iowa can finish at least 4th. Since they beat Maryland earlier a loss only neutralizes Iowa's position. Losing to Illinois on Sunday at home would be detrimental to a top 4 finish since they have a road game against Illinois to end the season. Getting a road win against Maryland would make up for that road loss at Nebraska and provide some distance from the teams behind Iowa.

After Sunday only two games remain with teams ahead of Iowa in the standings, @MSU and @Illinois. If Iowa can get the Illinois game on Sunday they should be in pretty good shape to finish in the top four provided the team can stay healthy. After Sunday four of the last 8 games are against Indiana and Purdue. I would rank these four games as winnable and add Ohio State, Penn State and Nebraska to the more winnable category. Only the @MSU game appears to be to big a hill to climb. 12 and 8 should get Iowa a fourth place finish.
After sunday we have 9 games left, not 8. We also only play Indiana once.
 
I actually like their chances of winning more tonight than on Sunday. Sunday afternoon games are a dud and the crowd seldom gets into it. That could work into Illinois favor alot if Iowa wins a big one in primetime tonight but has to come back for a Sunday afternoon game on a short turnaround.

At least Illinois has a game tonight too so the short turnaround is actually an advantage for us. Its easier to have a short turnaround at home than on the road. Also if we win tonight, Carver should be rocking (relatively speaking of course) Sunday.
 
At least Illinois has a game tonight too so the short turnaround is actually an advantage for us. Its easier to have a short turnaround at home than on the road. Also if we win tonight, Carver should be rocking (relatively speaking of course) Sunday.

I hope you are right. But as I have said, Iowa has the quietest sell outs in college basketball.
 
Next one up. We have already seen these guys once, so it will be a familiar foe. However, it was in Iowa City so how do the numbers look when we have to play in College Park?

In Big Ten play:

- Maryland hits 7.3 three's at home and Iowa hits 7 threes per game away.
- Maryland holds their opponents to 3.8 made threes at home, Iowa's away opponents hit 8.3 threes.
- Maryland shoots 31.1% from three at home and 33.1% on the road.
- Iowa shoots 38.8% from three at home and only 25.9% on the road.
- Maryland has shot a greater percentage from three at home than their opponent in all 4 of their games (4-0)
- Iowa has shot better then 2 of their 4 opponents away from three (1-3)
- Maryland has 17.8 FTA per game at home, Iowa has 16 FTA away.
- Maryland's home opponents have 12.8 FTA per game, Iowa's away opponents have 25.8 FTA.
- Maryland has more FTA than 3 of their 4 home opponents (4-0)
- Iowa has less FTA than all 4 of their away opponents (1-3)
- Maryland has commits 11.5 turnovers per game at home, Iowa commits 10 turnovers per game away.
- Maryland's home opponents commit 12.8 turnovers per game, Iowa's away opponents commit 9.3 turnovers per game.
- Maryland gets 37.5 rebounds at home while their opponents get 34.8.
- Iowa gets 38.3 rebounds per game away, while their away opponents get 36.8.
- Maryland gets 10.3 offensive rebounds at home and gives up 12.3.
- Iowa gets 13.3 offensive rebounds on the road and their away opponents get 11.5.

In the first meeting between these two teams:

- Iowa hit 9 three's to Maryland's 4
- Iowa shot 39.1% from three while Maryland shot 18.2%
- Maryland held an advantage in FTA 20-14. However, Iowa held the advantage in made FT's 12-11
- Iowa committed 18 turnovers while Maryland committed 17.
- Iowa held a rebounding advantage of 44-32, and 15-9 on offensive boards.

So what happens here? According to trends, there wont be any major advantage with regards to turnovers. Iowa trends to have an advantage with offensive rebounding. Trends do show that Maryland will have an advantage with free throw attempts, trending toward +10. Maryland trends to hit more three's than Iowa as well by +2. Adding all that up, trends point toward a Maryland 12-15 point victory.

For Iowa to win, assuming that turnovers and rebounding are going to be a wash, Iowa will have to reverse the trend and hold an advantage in FTA's and made three's. Because of pace of play, I will say if Iowa hits 8 threes, 4 per half, and holds Maryland to under 12 FTA's, we will win this game.


Well, in the end, the game pretty much played out like the numbers said they would.

- Iowa hit 8 threes to Maryland's 7
- Iowa committed 8 turnovers and Maryland committed 10 turnovers
- Iowa brought down 38 rebounds (14 offensive), and Maryland got 42 rebounds (10 offensive)
- Iowa shot 33% from three and Maryland shot 28% from three.

But, Maryland was +9 in both FTA's and FTM's. And that was ball game. Specifically, the officiating was terrible and totally one-sided and really dictated the play and pace of the game. The double-foul on Garza and Smith was bad and the 4th on Garza was even worse, and kept Smith from getting in foul trouble. That also wiped off 2 pts and FTA. The Kriener tech was cheap and cost us another 2 pts. The non-call on CMac shooting a 3 was ridiculous and should have been 3 shots for a great foul shooter. And Smith was hanging on Garza all night.

As far as us, CJ especially had some open looks that I am surprised he didn't make. Joe played ok, but missed a couple as well. Also, I know that Garza and Kriener were in foul trouble, but playing a lineup of Eveyln/Till/Pemsl/CJ/JoeT was desperate to say the least. Life on the road I guess. On to Illinois.
 

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