Iowa 37th In Sagarin
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NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Massey Ratings has us at 13
TeamRankings has us at 22
The thing to me right now is getting to full strength. Get Alaric Jackson back and a healthy Hankins and Brents. This team has shown some signs of being pretty decent just have to keep improving.
TeamRankings has us at 22
The thing to me right now is getting to full strength. Get Alaric Jackson back and a healthy Hankins and Brents. This team has shown some signs of being pretty decent just have to keep improving.
They can do well if they play "clean" games with excellent special teams. Be difficult and stingy on defense.
Fryowa
Administrator
As the mighty mighty @hawkdrummer1 and I discussed the other day, the current sample size has an effect on this. It’s not invalid...but not smoothed out yet either.
I do think, however, that it reinforces the fact that the Hawks have beaten three statistically not very good teams.
I do think, however, that it reinforces the fact that the Hawks have beaten three statistically not very good teams.
skinnykilmer17
Well-Known Member
We’ll probably actually be ranked better next week at this time.So you are saying we should be around 50th come September 29th?
And you know what? None of those rankings or numbers means a thing. Zero.
What we do know is that this team is very balanced and after these guys return from injury we don't have any obvious weaknesses or areas that our opponents can exploit. Add to that we have a senior QB that is playing like it and a roster that will not face anyone more talented than them on their schedule.
Looking back at our schedule, our first two opponents were scrimmages and Iowa State, love them or hate them, is a very solid team. Looking forward at our schedule and their question marks:
Michigan has offensive line issues along with offensive chemistry in a new scheme.
Penn State has secondary and running game issues, and their QB is not very good.
Purdue can't run.
NW will has overall offense issues and their QB (did you know he is a 5 star transfer from Clemson?) Is not very good right now.
Wisconsin hasn't been tested at all (Maryland looked equally as good until they played someone with a pulse) and their dependence on Taylor as well as a young secondary are issues that could be exploited.
Minny has offensive line issues and struggles to run the ball.
Illinois sucks
Nebraska has a lot of issues, notably offensive line,
running game and overall toughness.
My point is that we could win all these games. We could lose a few as well. But we will be in every one and no matter what the numbers say nobody on paper right now is better than us on our schedule. I can't wait to watch each week and see how it all plays out.
What we do know is that this team is very balanced and after these guys return from injury we don't have any obvious weaknesses or areas that our opponents can exploit. Add to that we have a senior QB that is playing like it and a roster that will not face anyone more talented than them on their schedule.
Looking back at our schedule, our first two opponents were scrimmages and Iowa State, love them or hate them, is a very solid team. Looking forward at our schedule and their question marks:
Michigan has offensive line issues along with offensive chemistry in a new scheme.
Penn State has secondary and running game issues, and their QB is not very good.
Purdue can't run.
NW will has overall offense issues and their QB (did you know he is a 5 star transfer from Clemson?) Is not very good right now.
Wisconsin hasn't been tested at all (Maryland looked equally as good until they played someone with a pulse) and their dependence on Taylor as well as a young secondary are issues that could be exploited.
Minny has offensive line issues and struggles to run the ball.
Illinois sucks
Nebraska has a lot of issues, notably offensive line,
running game and overall toughness.
My point is that we could win all these games. We could lose a few as well. But we will be in every one and no matter what the numbers say nobody on paper right now is better than us on our schedule. I can't wait to watch each week and see how it all plays out.
Fryowa
Administrator
This entire post is exactly what I was aiming at.
There’s zero chance you write a lengthy post like that if the Hawks were ranked say 12th or 15th or something. 37th is bringing out your biases.
What you’re trying to do with this post is justify those biases and undermine a mathematical system that has zero subjectivity. You’re trying to justify and defend the Hawks’ #18 ranking and I get it as a fan, but the point remains that 1) Sagarin and the RPI (especially when taken together) are the most indicative and representative of the best teams in college football (and their subsequent rankings) due to their absolute blindness when it comes to homerism, and 2) we all as Hawk fans (myself included) don’t see the forest for the trees.
I’m not in any way posting this to give you shit or bash you; the reason for my original post was to spark convo on bias. This shit interests the hell out of me and because of the emotional connection we all have to this, the biases jump out at us.
At the end of the day, This is all for giggles.
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NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
I’m sorry but the Sagarin model its just not very accurate at this point in the season. Miami is 1-2 and ranked 20th. North Dakota State is ranked 29. Florida State is 1-2 with their only win a 45-44 win over Louisiana Monroe comes in at 29.
Just because it isn't subjective doesn’t make it any more or less accurate than others. As far as I know Massey ratings and TeamRankings are objective as well.
Long way to go. Hawks need to get healthy and keep improving.
smhawk
Well-Known Member
This guy for the win.
It's interesting looking at statistics but obviously some models do a better job than others.
I understand what you are saying, but I really don't think I posted that because I felt like we were being slighted. For me, I did it because I am underwhelmed by all of the mathematical models that are supposed to yield predictive results. There is a place for analytics, sure, but the results of these games are not going to abide by trends because they are trends. Especially after 2 or 3 games when most teams are padding stats.
I have also been an Iowa fan my entire life and have watched our pendulum swing both ways with hype and rankings and I guess I don't buy into much of that anymore because of how inaccurate it all is.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
My main concern with Iowa right now is the lack of a pass rush. Our sack % right now is #105 in the country. It can improve but if it doesn’t our secondary can’t hold up forever. We got pressure against Rutgers, but didn’t get much against Miami (OH) or Iowa State.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
With both Rut and Illannoy on the schedule, the Hawks will be looking up at a lot of teams in this ranking all year,
Gifts that keep on giving...
Gifts that keep on giving...
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
Bingo. At this point, that's the ranking we deserve. Win 2 of the next 3 and we'll jump significantly. Win 'em all and we're top 10.
I agree with you, however, I think we should expand on that. I think that depth on the defensive line and especially the ends is the biggest area of weakness on this team, and if a team can get us in a shootout where our defense is on the field for 80, 90 or 100 plays, this will show up. The last couple of years this has not been a concern and that has been out of the norm for us, but we are back to reality now. Rutgers played right into our strengths because they didn't have much of a short, quick passing game and the quarterback could not run. Our d line didnt have to hesitate and they could pin their ears back. The Miami QB and Purdy were that type of quarterback that can really hurt us because they had a short passing attack and they could use their legs. If our d line goes all out to sack those guys, most of the time it is for naught because the ball comes out fast, or, worse, the QB breaks contain and uses his legs. So I think it is methodical in that we pick our poison, especially since our secondary is good but not elite and there is no King or Jackson or Hooker back there right now. So we sit back in our cover 2 zone, the d line keeps the QB in the pocket and let him dink and dunk us between the 30's, and, if they make it that far to the 30, we bring a little pressure, tighten up on those underneath routes and use the end zone as an extra defender. All the while stop the run with our front 4. We all know Norm used to famously say that not very many college QB's can be accurate enough to do more than 1 or 2 10 play drives a game.
We still have an elite playmaker in AJE and the rest of our d line is very very good. But I think this will be the recipe against QB's that can run. That includes Patterson with Michigan, Johnson with NW, Clifford with PSU, and Martinez with Nebby. MTSU and Illinois are not relavent. I think you will see us bring some pressure consistently against Morgan from Minny with their questions on Oline and their talented receiving corp, Sindelar with Purdue because he can't run and we will want to get the ball out of his hands. Wisconsin we will have to play a lot more straight up because they are so much more balanced and even though Coan doesnt run, Taylor can house us at any time.
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
With a dinged up secondary, we can't afford to throw too many stunts and blitzes at 'em. I think that's why you see Phil staying with a standard 4-man rush. If the opposition continues to throw an extra man to EJ's side...we have to exploit that.
That said, I think Parker made some great adjustments in the second 1/2. I trust him to make the right calls a hell of a lot more than I trust BFz's.
That said, I think Parker made some great adjustments in the second 1/2. I trust him to make the right calls a hell of a lot more than I trust BFz's.
The hawks blitzed plenty against ISU.
How do you get sacks and hurries??? First you have to stone the other team on first down and getting 2nd and 3rd and long. The hawks gave up two long passing TDs but the cushion the dbacks are giving are not helping our pass rush.
I think the main way to get to 2nd and 3rd and long is play tighter to stop the run and short pass on first down and get that long yardage situation.
Then you can dial up the pass rush pressure but you need some tight receiver coverage for the first couple or few seconds so the opposing QB cant just dump the ball to a wide open receiver. Make the opposing qb hold the ball an extra second and a blitz and then to give them a different look.
The hawk defense did great overall in that ISU game and ISU did try a second lateral-pass play but the defense was on the guy fast who got lateral and the receiver may have been covered so it was a loss or no gain type of play. The pass rush got better as the game progressed in the 2nd half.
Question - Did Nixon not play a lot the last 2 to 3 qtrs?
