Iowa +3.5 Who ya got?

[99topdawg]

I hate to be negative, but my gut feeling that always fails me is to take ISU and the points. They have talent we've never seen out of them, and, IMO, their lines are better than ours and will win the game for them. They're at home and I'm worried that this game is the one that they see as the one that will propel them into a huge season for them.

The only reason I think Iowa has a chance is, even though they have a lot on the line, the game really doesn't mean that much to them:

 

[cincyhawk]

I hate to be negative, but my gut feeling that always fails me is to take ISU and the points. They have talent we've never seen out of them, and, IMO, their lines are better than ours and will win the game for them. They're at home and I'm worried that this game is the one that they see as the one that will propel them into a huge season for them.

The only reason I think Iowa has a chance is, even though they have a lot on the line, the game really doesn't mean that much to them:

View attachment 8006View attachment 8007

Iowa should win this game provided

* Petras's limping around from the Indiana game is healed
* Riley Moss doesn't jump off a balcony and break his legs
* The D-line stays eligible

Iowa State looked terrible. Iowa's offense looked OK. One developmental team is farther along in its development process than the other, right now. And it's not close.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

If our offensive line plays better (as in, we can establish a running game) IOWA wins. If not, it could be a tough afternoon.
Petras looked marginally more comfortable but a noisy road game could bring out the yips again.

 

[Grady]

One objective review of the Indiana game had Petras throwing 17 good passes, 6 bad passes, and 4 throwaways. So basically 25% of Petras throws that weren't throwaways were really bad. Remember, the Iowa State game will be Petras' first true 'road game' with fans in the stands. I'm a generally optimistic guy, but expecting him to play better on the road vs ISU than he did at home vs Indiana seems a little unrealistic to me. I don't think either of these teams are Top 10 material, and I'll be shocked if the winning margin is larger than 7pts.

 

[loesshillshawk]

I have a bit of a different take on this one. They play in a league that is basically pass first, run 2nd, and defense at times is optional. I think our style of play is something that really gives them problems. We are willing to grind it out, take our pops downfield when it is open and play solid bend but don't break defense. As for the lines, I am not so ready to just throw in the towel. I believe we are deeper on both sides of the ball. Their line is designed differently than ours, big plays, hit Hall now and again, BIG PLAYS. Their defense is designed to stop the pass happy offenses of the Big 12...grinding offenses that come at them relentlessly are not a normal preparation. So I don't think the gaps on the lines, talent-wise are that big if any.

Another thing in our favor is the weight of the world is on ISU. Gameday all week long, Super Bowl atmosphere, Campbell has yet to beat us, we have a chip on our shoulder with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Don't think for one minute that Kirk has not put this game in RED letters...he knows in order to lock up our borders (or the majority) of kids we need to win. Playing from the favorite is tough, you are tight, you put a little extra zip on balls, you hit the hole a little too quick, you rush past your assignment, and all of a sudden you give up some plays. So I believe Kirk is extremely happy they get to deal with Gameday ALL WEEK.

Also I really feel that Kirk has a bit of a swagger about him recently. He seems to enjoy rubbing things in guys faces, time outs at Minnesota, going for it on 4th down, jabs at coaches in pressers, HE WANTS THIS ONE. Kirk loves the woe is me, we just hope to compete and stay close. I think he is the master at selling this to his guys.

I was at the game Saturday and I firmly believe, having coached HS football for a long time. We were vanilla, very few FB plays on 1st down, very basic plays, not really any shots downfield, I believe we see a different offense on Saturday. Also I am telling you after seeing Iowa teams for 38 years...this defense is SPECIAL. We have the back 7 to contain a pass happy team like ISU, we can pressure (even if lightly) Purdy. Our back guys seem to no longer set back and read, they anticipate and make plays.

The last thing is our punter. I sat at the game in my seat hour and a half early and watched him kick. The kid is amazing...the way he can get the ball to back spin...simply unheard of. He has a power leg, and has that ability to drop it on a dime. He can flip the field every time we need him too. It really deflates an offense when they think, "we are going to get good position here", then he drops a bomb on them and they are inside their 20 or even 10.

Color me a kool-aide drinker but this team is special. I think chemistry is good, I think leadership is amazing, we have speed, solid coaching and swagger coming off last years success. Is Petras a concern??? Yes, but I think he has improved, his receivers dropped 4 balls on Saturday that would of been 30+ yard gains, and he skipped a curve ball on the turf that would of been a touchdown. He will come through with some big plays on Saturday. I also look for a couple big gains by either Johnson or Bruce. I am however a realist and know this is their Super Bowl, but weight of the world, a couple TO's, and solid D from Iowa let's us walk away with 23 to 21 victory. Go ahead and shoot holes...but I think we got this.

 

[Grady]

View attachment 8008

I have a bit of a different take on this one. They play in a league that is basically pass first, run 2nd, and defense at times is optional. I think our style of play is something that really gives them problems. We are willing to grind it out, take our pops downfield when it is open and play solid bend but don't break defense. As for the lines, I am not so ready to just throw in the towel. I believe we are deeper on both sides of the ball. Their line is designed differently than ours, big plays, hit Hall now and again, BIG PLAYS. Their defense is designed to stop the pass happy offenses of the Big 12...grinding offenses that come at them relentlessly are not a normal preparation. So I don't think the gaps on the lines, talent-wise are that big if any.

Another thing in our favor is the weight of the world is on ISU. Gameday all week long, Super Bowl atmosphere, Campbell has yet to beat us, we have a chip on our shoulder with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Don't think for one minute that Kirk has not put this game in RED letters...he knows in order to lock up our borders (or the majority) of kids we need to win. Playing from the favorite is tough, you are tight, you put a little extra zip on balls, you hit the hole a little too quick, you rush past your assignment, and all of a sudden you give up some plays. So I believe Kirk is extremely happy they get to deal with Gameday ALL WEEK.

Also I really feel that Kirk has a bit of a swagger about him recently. He seems to enjoy rubbing things in guys faces, time outs at Minnesota, going for it on 4th down, jabs at coaches in pressers, HE WANTS THIS ONE. Kirk loves the woe is me, we just hope to compete and stay close. I think he is the master at selling this to his guys.

I was at the game Saturday and I firmly believe, having coached HS football for a long time. We were vanilla, very few FB plays on 1st down, very basic plays, not really any shots downfield, I believe we see a different offense on Saturday. Also I am telling you after seeing Iowa teams for 38 years...this defense is SPECIAL. We have the back 7 to contain a pass happy team like ISU, we can pressure (even if lightly) Purdy. Our back guys seem to no longer set back and read, they anticipate and make plays.

The last thing is our punter. I sat at the game in my seat hour and a half early and watched him kick. The kid is amazing...the way he can get the ball to back spin...simply unheard of. He has a power leg, and has that ability to drop it on a dime. He can flip the field every time we need him too. It really deflates an offense when they think, "we are going to get good position here", then he drops a bomb on them and they are inside their 20 or even 10.

Color me a kool-aide drinker but this team is special. I think chemistry is good, I think leadership is amazing, we have speed, solid coaching and swagger coming off last years success. Is Petras a concern??? Yes, but I think he has improved, his receivers dropped 4 balls on Saturday that would of been 30+ yard gains, and he skipped a curve ball on the turf that would of been a touchdown. He will come through with some big plays on Saturday. I also look for a couple big gains by either Johnson or Bruce. I am however a realist and know this is their Super Bowl, but weight of the world, a couple TO's, and solid D from Iowa let's us walk away with 23 to 21 victory. Go ahead and shoot holes...but I think we got this.

I tend to generally agree with you: despite ISU having more pre-season All Americans than Alabama, the Cyclone talent across the board does not overwhelm, nor apparently did it intimidate UNI. I doubt that Iowa will gain more than 150 on the ground; which means the game will probably be decided by Petras. Problem is, as you say, ISU plays in a pass-first conference and Iowa's pass offense will probably be the least creative scheme they see all season. I sincerely hope Petras makes me eat my words.

 

[uihawk82]

Iowa should win this game provided

* Petras's limping around from the Indiana game is healed
* Riley Moss doesn't jump off a balcony and break his legs
* The D-line stays eligible

Iowa State looked terrible. Iowa's offense looked OK. One developmental team is farther along in its development process than the other, right now. And it's not close.

I talked to friends who watched the ISU game and these people said ISU's Off line just could not get any push and against and undersized UNI line compared to our line,

The hawks can usually hold down ISU's running game which they did twice recently against Montgomery who is in the NFL. I was really surprised at Hall's low yards per carry at 3 or less. I expected ISU to run and pass quite easily and well against UNI.

My take is the hawks win, and I dont care by how many points, because we have had their number recently, the hawks usually hold down their running game, and Purdy is not Mahomes and our defense is really good.

 

[Motigerhawk]

Iowa wins 24-17.

The rematch at Lucas Oil Field will be the blow out by Iowa.

 

[ssckelley]

I am hoping to keep my streak alive.

ISU 24
Iowa 21

 

[uihawk82]

Last year Petras looked rough the first 2 games. His right tackle in the Purdue game had a bad 2nd half and Petras was under pressure a lot. Fitzie got jNW to shut down our run game in the 2nd half and Petras had 3 picks I think.

But he got much better as the year went along throwing to tight windows to the TEnds and receivers, throwing better, leading dump off passes.

We are due to lose to ISU this year or soon but I think we have some talented receivers who can get separation and get open.

Will ISU's junk 3-4 with blitzing give our OLine and Petras problems? could be

 

[HaydenHawk56]

Consider this point. The Big 12 is overrated. The best team in the league, Oklahoma, won 40-35 against Tulane. Tulane, a sister of the poor. Top 10 ISU wins 16-10 against FCS, second cousin, UNI.

I think Iowa plowing through 7 straight Big Ten opponents speaks volumes. They would have destroyed Michigan had they played them as well.

Sure, we have seen this movie before. The clowns struggle or lose to UNI and come out next week and look like the 85 Bears against us.

I'm sure they were probably holding back some plays for us. I'm sure they will be more jacked to play us like they always do.

But, they are not playing a mediocre Iowa next week. A good Iowa team is coming to Big Top. I think Iowa St is going to have to show much more in all 3 phases (at least 2) if they are going to win on Saturday.

If they can't spin straw into gold out of the few trick plays I'm sure they will throw at us, then can they play us toe to toe for all 4 quarters? I'm not so sure.

I will say a close game because of a probable yippe Petras, but this could very well be a double digit Iowa win if what we saw in week 1 is representative of both teams more or less.

Keys to them Game:
Turnovers
Limit Big Plays

Iowa 24
Clowns 17

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

Hawks -8.5, take it or leave it.

 

[chucktownhawk]

I hope Petras comes out cool and collected. Crazy game atmosphere. You have to establish something soon. I like the fact that we get nasty and establish our run game. Let's add a little chocolate and caramel, a few nuts to our vanilla and see what happens. Use tight ends to help block, then slip one in the flats..I hope our coaches come out hot. And if Padilla comes in, please kid, don't trip. It's embarrassing

 

[99topdawg]

This is one of the things that scares me about ISU. They really do have some players. Tough to wrap my head around them actually having talent after all of the years of suckage.

What under-the-radar school has a bunch of prospects to keep an eye on?

Todd McShay: Fourteen players from Iowa State's roster have draft-worthy grades from me heading into the season, and three of them broke into my top 50.
Inside linebacker Mike Rose could honestly start for an NFL team as a rookie, thanks to his versatility, length and range. He had five interceptions last season, the most for any non-DB. Then there is Will McDonald IV. His 10.5 sacks were tied for first nationally in 2020, and his pass-rush move arsenal is diverse. And sticking with statistical leaders, running back Breece Hall's 1,572 yards on the ground paced the FBS last season. I think he could be a three-down back in the NFL, with good burst, speed and contact balance.

 

[thedukeofearl]

View attachment 8008

I have a bit of a different take on this one. They play in a league that is basically pass first, run 2nd, and defense at times is optional. I think our style of play is something that really gives them problems. We are willing to grind it out, take our pops downfield when it is open and play solid bend but don't break defense. As for the lines, I am not so ready to just throw in the towel. I believe we are deeper on both sides of the ball. Their line is designed differently than ours, big plays, hit Hall now and again, BIG PLAYS. Their defense is designed to stop the pass happy offenses of the Big 12...grinding offenses that come at them relentlessly are not a normal preparation. So I don't think the gaps on the lines, talent-wise are that big if any.

Another thing in our favor is the weight of the world is on ISU. Gameday all week long, Super Bowl atmosphere, Campbell has yet to beat us, we have a chip on our shoulder with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Don't think for one minute that Kirk has not put this game in RED letters...he knows in order to lock up our borders (or the majority) of kids we need to win. Playing from the favorite is tough, you are tight, you put a little extra zip on balls, you hit the hole a little too quick, you rush past your assignment, and all of a sudden you give up some plays. So I believe Kirk is extremely happy they get to deal with Gameday ALL WEEK.

Also I really feel that Kirk has a bit of a swagger about him recently. He seems to enjoy rubbing things in guys faces, time outs at Minnesota, going for it on 4th down, jabs at coaches in pressers, HE WANTS THIS ONE. Kirk loves the woe is me, we just hope to compete and stay close. I think he is the master at selling this to his guys.

I was at the game Saturday and I firmly believe, having coached HS football for a long time. We were vanilla, very few FB plays on 1st down, very basic plays, not really any shots downfield, I believe we see a different offense on Saturday. Also I am telling you after seeing Iowa teams for 38 years...this defense is SPECIAL. We have the back 7 to contain a pass happy team like ISU, we can pressure (even if lightly) Purdy. Our back guys seem to no longer set back and read, they anticipate and make plays.

The last thing is our punter. I sat at the game in my seat hour and a half early and watched him kick. The kid is amazing...the way he can get the ball to back spin...simply unheard of. He has a power leg, and has that ability to drop it on a dime. He can flip the field every time we need him too. It really deflates an offense when they think, "we are going to get good position here", then he drops a bomb on them and they are inside their 20 or even 10.

Color me a kool-aide drinker but this team is special. I think chemistry is good, I think leadership is amazing, we have speed, solid coaching and swagger coming off last years success. Is Petras a concern??? Yes, but I think he has improved, his receivers dropped 4 balls on Saturday that would of been 30+ yard gains, and he skipped a curve ball on the turf that would of been a touchdown. He will come through with some big plays on Saturday. I also look for a couple big gains by either Johnson or Bruce. I am however a realist and know this is their Super Bowl, but weight of the world, a couple TO's, and solid D from Iowa let's us walk away with 23 to 21 victory. Go ahead and shoot holes...but I think we got this.

Excellent analysis, loesshillshawk

This paragraph was ideal

Also I really feel that Kirk has a bit of a swagger about him recently. He seems to enjoy rubbing things in guys faces, time outs at Minnesota, going for it on 4th down, jabs at coaches in pressers, HE WANTS THIS ONE. Kirk loves the woe is me, we just hope to compete and stay close. I think he is the master at selling this to his guys.

 

[hawkinn3]

Purdy throws 4 picks and Iowa rolls 35-13

 

[M1911A1Hawkeye]

Hawkeyes all the way baby.

 

[CP87]

View attachment 8008

I have a bit of a different take on this one. They play in a league that is basically pass first, run 2nd, and defense at times is optional. I think our style of play is something that really gives them problems. We are willing to grind it out, take our pops downfield when it is open and play solid bend but don't break defense. As for the lines, I am not so ready to just throw in the towel. I believe we are deeper on both sides of the ball. Their line is designed differently than ours, big plays, hit Hall now and again, BIG PLAYS. Their defense is designed to stop the pass happy offenses of the Big 12...grinding offenses that come at them relentlessly are not a normal preparation. So I don't think the gaps on the lines, talent-wise are that big if any.

Another thing in our favor is the weight of the world is on ISU. Gameday all week long, Super Bowl atmosphere, Campbell has yet to beat us, we have a chip on our shoulder with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Don't think for one minute that Kirk has not put this game in RED letters...he knows in order to lock up our borders (or the majority) of kids we need to win. Playing from the favorite is tough, you are tight, you put a little extra zip on balls, you hit the hole a little too quick, you rush past your assignment, and all of a sudden you give up some plays. So I believe Kirk is extremely happy they get to deal with Gameday ALL WEEK.

Also I really feel that Kirk has a bit of a swagger about him recently. He seems to enjoy rubbing things in guys faces, time outs at Minnesota, going for it on 4th down, jabs at coaches in pressers, HE WANTS THIS ONE. Kirk loves the woe is me, we just hope to compete and stay close. I think he is the master at selling this to his guys.

I was at the game Saturday and I firmly believe, having coached HS football for a long time. We were vanilla, very few FB plays on 1st down, very basic plays, not really any shots downfield, I believe we see a different offense on Saturday. Also I am telling you after seeing Iowa teams for 38 years...this defense is SPECIAL. We have the back 7 to contain a pass happy team like ISU, we can pressure (even if lightly) Purdy. Our back guys seem to no longer set back and read, they anticipate and make plays.

The last thing is our punter. I sat at the game in my seat hour and a half early and watched him kick. The kid is amazing...the way he can get the ball to back spin...simply unheard of. He has a power leg, and has that ability to drop it on a dime. He can flip the field every time we need him too. It really deflates an offense when they think, "we are going to get good position here", then he drops a bomb on them and they are inside their 20 or even 10.

Color me a kool-aide drinker but this team is special. I think chemistry is good, I think leadership is amazing, we have speed, solid coaching and swagger coming off last years success. Is Petras a concern??? Yes, but I think he has improved, his receivers dropped 4 balls on Saturday that would of been 30+ yard gains, and he skipped a curve ball on the turf that would of been a touchdown. He will come through with some big plays on Saturday. I also look for a couple big gains by either Johnson or Bruce. I am however a realist and know this is their Super Bowl, but weight of the world, a couple TO's, and solid D from Iowa let's us walk away with 23 to 21 victory. Go ahead and shoot holes...but I think we got this.

A week ago I was thinking like @99topdawg , it was hard to see a Hawk's win in this one. Now I am with you, I think the pressure is all on ISU.

Iowa has struggled for the longest time when playing a good opponent in must-win situations...lots of sphincter-tightening going on. But once the stakes are lowered, they look like world-beaters:

* 2016 - were eliminated from B1G West race by NW, followed by beating #3 Michigan then smoking Illinois and Neb a combined 68-10
* 2017 - crushed #6 OSU with nothing to lose (should note they followed this with 2 ugly losses)
* 2018 - consecutive sphincter-clenching losses to PSU, NW, and Purdue eliminate us, then smash Ill 63-0, beat Neb, and beat Miss St. in bowl
* 2019 - lost to Wisky, then finished 4-0 including a bowl win vs. USC
* 2020 - lose control of own destiny after starting 0-2, then win 6 in a row with average victory by 22 pts


Iowa is in a rare situation vs. ISU where they really can't lose. An L vs. a non-conference, top-10 opponent on the road does nothing to hurt their season goals. A win allows them to keep the CyHawk and continue to rub little brother's nose in the dirt. I think they will play aggressive, I think they will play loose, and I think they will come out on top.

 

[Northside Hawk]

This is one of the things that scares me about ISU. They really do have some players. Tough to wrap my head around them actually having talent after all of the years of suckage.

What under-the-radar school has a bunch of prospects to keep an eye on?

Todd McShay: Fourteen players from Iowa State's roster have draft-worthy grades from me heading into the season, and three of them broke into my top 50.
Inside linebacker Mike Rose could honestly start for an NFL team as a rookie, thanks to his versatility, length and range. He had five interceptions last season, the most for any non-DB. Then there is Will McDonald IV. His 10.5 sacks were tied for first nationally in 2020, and his pass-rush move arsenal is diverse. And sticking with statistical leaders, running back Breece Hall's 1,572 yards on the ground paced the FBS last season. I think he could be a three-down back in the NFL, with good burst, speed and contact balance.

Good as our guys are at the position, Rose would be an incredible Cash for us. I've liked him since he was a freshman.

 

[ssckelley]

A week ago I was thinking like @99topdawg , it was hard to see a Hawk's win in this one. Now I am with you, I think the pressure is all on ISU.

Iowa has struggled for the longest time when playing a good opponent in must-win situations...lots of sphincter-tightening going on. But once the stakes are lowered, they look like world-beaters:

* 2016 - were eliminated from B1G West race by NW, followed by beating #3 Michigan then smoking Illinois and Neb a combined 68-10
* 2017 - crushed #6 OSU with nothing to lose (should note they followed this with 2 ugly losses)
* 2018 - consecutive sphincter-clenching losses to PSU, NW, and Purdue eliminate us, then smash Ill 63-0, beat Neb, and beat Miss St. in bowl
* 2019 - lost to Wisky, then finished 4-0 including a bowl win vs. USC
* 2020 - lose control of own destiny after starting 0-2, then win 6 in a row with average victory by 22 pts


Iowa is in a rare situation vs. ISU where they really can't lose. An L vs. a non-conference, top-10 opponent on the road does nothing to hurt their season goals. A win allows them to keep the CyHawk and continue to rub little brother's nose in the dirt. I think they will play aggressive, I think they will play loose, and I think they will come out on top.

Exactly, unless you are one of those that thinks Iowa could be a playoff team then this game really doesn't mean anything. Although if Iowa was to win this game those types of mentions could start happening. But if we are being honest with ourselves this game is all about bragging rights, nothing more.