Iowa +19.5 today

I've got Iowa +19.5 and the over. If we lose by more than 19 it's going to be a high scoring game and I pay the juice. If we lose by less than 20 then it should be low scoring and I pay the juice. Worst case is we get blown out and score less than 50 pts. In that scenario I lose both but I don't see that happening. I would probably weight this bet as this:

30% chance of winning both sides
65% chance of splitting
5% chance of losing both sides

well, your 5% chance just hit.
 

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