Interesting portal data/chart

I think we need to see a few more years of this to know if it means anything.

I'm wondering when they exit in large numbers is it because they're being pushed ? Do the players have unrealistic expectations of NIL for retention? Are they being lured with more money ? Is it flight from bad culture? ANd of course for some they want playing time.

Its reasonable to assume that all of this is in play in different places.
 
I think we need to see a few more years of this to know if it means anything.

I'm wondering when they exit in large numbers is it because they're being pushed ? Do the players have unrealistic expectations of NIL for retention? Are they being lured with more money ? Is it flight from bad culture? ANd of course for some they want playing time.

Its reasonable to assume that all of this is in play in different places.
Agreed. This is a snapshot in time...and good point about how one could deliniate the reason(s) behind each portal entry.
 
The fact that Michigan and Alabama have a total of only 2 guys in the portal at this point is amazing, for a variety of reasons.
 
I think we need to see a few more years of this to know if it means anything.

I'm wondering when they exit in large numbers is it because they're being pushed ? Do the players have unrealistic expectations of NIL for retention? Are they being lured with more money ? Is it flight from bad culture? ANd of course for some they want playing time.

Its reasonable to assume that all of this is in play in different places.

My buddy worked in a senior role for a big, name brand school. He was told by the head basketball coach that every single guy on his team, all the way down to the guy who just comes in for mopup duty, legitimately believes that he is good enough to play in the NBA.

My buddy didn't believe it, so he asked again. Yes, yes they all think they are good enough to play in the NBA. He would ask the players in one off settings. He didn't ask them all, but yes, everyone he asked legitimately told him he was good enough to play in the NBA.

I suspect it holds true across sports. Imagine being Tyler Goodson. You got some awards in high school, put up some decent numbers in the Big Ten, you think you are good enough to play in the NFL. The coach says "Tyler, we're going to reduce your workload a little bit, we have a freshman who is going to do short yardage and there's another guy who is a little better at catching the ball out of the backfield who will get half of the third down reps." You have Tyler who just absolutely knows he is an NFL caliber player, on one side, and a coach trying to win games on the other side. If Tyler fails to make it to the NFL, it ain't his fault, he's good enough. It's the coach's fault if he doesn't make it. I believe that is the driver of maybe 3/4ths of the portal entrants. Guys who are just absolutely convinced they are future stars, they've been told as much their whole life, they just need to get away from the team that is holding them back. In a case like Penix or Burrow, yeah, it's true, but those guys are massive outliers and exceptions to the rule. For every Joe Burrow there are probably at least 100 Deuce Hogans.

My dad didn't believe in the term "self-esteem." He thought it would destroy American society. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong, but I lived across the highway from a "wrestling dad" who had three kids who went on to be D-1 wrestlers. By the time I was 7 I knew that I had no chance in hell of beating those dudes and my dad didn't do anything to dissuade me of the notion because he wasn't going to lie to me to protect my ego. His words of encouragement were always of the variety of "get better, get used to losing or quit."

My older brother moved to New York a day after graduating from Iowa State. He was an extremely gifted singer and had big hopes of making it on Broadway. He went to tryouts for a few weeks and quickly realized just how little being one of the handful of best singers in Iowa meant out in the real world and he switched to being a "hobbyist" in that world. The problem in sports is that the overwhelming majority of these guys have parents and cheerleaders who tell them "you're the man and nothing is gonna stop you from playing in the NFL." They have no self-awareness and no ability to understand that they just aren't good enough to make it through the filtering mechanisms as the level of competition increases. The kids now have parents who got brainwashed into the self-esteem cult that kicked off in earnest back in the '80's. They have not developed much self-awareness and so whenever anything doesn't go their way it is clearly someone else's fault, and then when that defense mechanism is exhausted many of these guys fall into a downward spiral of mental health problems.
 
I think it's a double edge sword when you talk about the portal. On one end, it allows an athlete who may be unhappy with his playing time/role, culture, or etc. to move on and find a better fit. On the other hand, it creates an environment where there is no commitment to a school. Instant gratification. It's the Burger King effect-they want it there way and want it now.

The NIL also contributes to this. Players can sell their talents to highest bidder in a matter of speaking. If a team has a need, they begin the negotiation process. Oregon has a need with the exit of Bo Nix. And magically, Gabriel from Oklahoma rides into town.

I am curious, in a way, how this happens. I assume the NCAA has rules about other teams contacting a player under scholarship at another school. Does an athlete actually enter the portal first, or does a coach reach out and offer first? I'm sure it's like anything else, the NCAA does not look real hard to enforce this unless there is a complaint.
 
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The fact that Michigan and Alabama have a total of only 2 guys in the portal at this point is amazing, for a variety of reasons.

It's funny the correlation of where the good teams are (near bottom) and those that aren't winning or that are a mess.
 
My buddy worked in a senior role for a big, name brand school. He was told by the head basketball coach that every single guy on his team, all the way down to the guy who just comes in for mopup duty, legitimately believes that he is good enough to play in the NBA.

My buddy didn't believe it, so he asked again. Yes, yes they all think they are good enough to play in the NBA. He would ask the players in one off settings. He didn't ask them all, but yes, everyone he asked legitimately told him he was good enough to play in the NBA.

I suspect it holds true across sports. Imagine being Tyler Goodson. You got some awards in high school, put up some decent numbers in the Big Ten, you think you are good enough to play in the NFL. The coach says "Tyler, we're going to reduce your workload a little bit, we have a freshman who is going to do short yardage and there's another guy who is a little better at catching the ball out of the backfield who will get half of the third down reps." You have Tyler who just absolutely knows he is an NFL caliber player, on one side, and a coach trying to win games on the other side. If Tyler fails to make it to the NFL, it ain't his fault, he's good enough. It's the coach's fault if he doesn't make it. I believe that is the driver of maybe 3/4ths of the portal entrants. Guys who are just absolutely convinced they are future stars, they've been told as much their whole life, they just need to get away from the team that is holding them back. In a case like Penix or Burrow, yeah, it's true, but those guys are massive outliers and exceptions to the rule. For every Joe Burrow there are probably at least 100 Deuce Hogans.

My dad didn't believe in the term "self-esteem." He thought it would destroy American society. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong, but I lived across the highway from a "wrestling dad" who had three kids who went on to be D-1 wrestlers. By the time I was 7 I knew that I had no chance in hell of beating those dudes and my dad didn't do anything to dissuade me of the notion because he wasn't going to lie to me to protect my ego. His words of encouragement were always of the variety of "get better, get used to losing or quit."

My older brother moved to New York a day after graduating from Iowa State. He was an extremely gifted singer and had big hopes of making it on Broadway. He went to tryouts for a few weeks and quickly realized just how little being one of the handful of best singers in Iowa meant out in the real world and he switched to being a "hobbyist" in that world. The problem in sports is that the overwhelming majority of these guys have parents and cheerleaders who tell them "you're the man and nothing is gonna stop you from playing in the NFL." They have no self-awareness and no ability to understand that they just aren't good enough to make it through the filtering mechanisms as the level of competition increases. The kids now have parents who got brainwashed into the self-esteem cult that kicked off in earnest back in the '80's. They have not developed much self-awareness and so whenever anything doesn't go their way it is clearly someone else's fault, and then when that defense mechanism is exhausted many of these guys fall into a downward spiral of mental health problems.
Nailed it. These young individuals also grew up in an era where you get what you want, no matter if it is a necessity or not or if you can afford it. The parents instilled this in them. It's if I don't get what I want or if something is hard, I'll just move on.

Unfortunately, we are a "me first" and self-centered (getting on top of each other) society, who will do anything at anybody else's expense to get ahead and screw each other doing it. Nothing has a price not willing to pay or go in debt for, as long as we get what we want.

How many people are in homes that have no business being in, just to keep pace with the Andersons? How many are house poor that have nothing in investments or savings? We are such a gluttonousness and pathetic society.

My soap box.
 
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I think it's a double edge sword when you talk about the portal. On one end, it allows an athlete who may be unhappy with his playing time/role, culture, or etc. to move on and find a better fit. On the other hand, it creates an environment where there is commitment to a school. Instant gratification. It's the Burger King effect-they want it there way and want it now.

The NIL also contributes to this. Players can sell their talents to highest bidder in a matter of speaking. If a team has a need, they begin the negotiation process. Oregon has a need with the exit of Bo Nix. And magically, Gabriel from Oklahoma rides into town.

I am curious, in a way, how this happens. I assume the NCAA has rules about other teams contacting a player under scholarship at another school. Does an athlete actually enter the portal first, or does a coach reach out and offer first? I'm sure it's like anything else, the NCAA does not look real hard to enforce this unless there is a complaint.

The portal in itself isn't the bad here. It's really the NIL, as players, parents, agents have, as we always do in society, found loopholes to exploit it. It was never locked down in the first place as far as rules and guidelines and the leeches arrived to suck everything they could out of it.

The portal would have been fine by itself and I think provided an avenue for student athletes to move on for a few good reasons. We would have gotten used to that and I actually think it alone would have provided parity in college as it would have leveled teams with players looking for playing opportunities.

But the NIL is the two headed monster which completely mucks up and skews everything, even now affecting the recruitment of high school players. All players are chasing the $$$, and now schools can look at the portal for players that have 1-2 yrs under their belt developing and learning a college system. They may take portal players instead of biting on some of the HS senior recruits, unless the player is a true stud.
 
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The portal in itself isn't the bad here. It's really the NIL, as players, parents, agents have, as we always do in society, found loopholes to exploit it. It was never locked down in the first place as far as rules and guidelines and the leeches arrived to suck everything they could out of it.

The portal would have been fine by itself and I think provided an avenue for student athletes to move on for a few good reasons. We would have gotten used to that and I actually think it alone would have provided parity in college as it would have leveled teams with players looking for playing opportunities.

But the NIL is the two headed monster which completely mucks up and skews everything, even now affecting the recruitment of high school players. All players are chasing the $$$, and now schools can look at the portal for players that have 1-2 yrs under their belt developing and learning a college system. They may take portal players instead of biting on some of the HS senior recruits, unless they players is a true stud.
Agree. Either in and of itself is reasonable. Allowing a player to transfer once without an eligibility penalty makes total sense. Things happen, sometimes out of players control. They should be allowed to move on as long as there some restrictions remain in place to protect the "sanctity" of the commitment process.

NIL on paper also makes sense. If, say a local car dealer, wants to hire a player to promote a product, said player should have every right to profit from that. That said, the system as is has become a completely unregulated wild west. At some point, a governing body will need to pump the brakes and at least attempt to properly regulate it. It won't be an easy task. Structuring it and enforcing it both will be nightmarish moving forward.
 
Agree. Either in and of itself is reasonable. Allowing a player to transfer once without an eligibility penalty makes total sense. Things happen, sometimes out of players control. They should be allowed to move on as long as there some restrictions remain in place to protect the "sanctity" of the commitment process.

NIL on paper also makes sense. If, say a local car dealer, wants to hire a player to promote a product, said player should have every right to profit from that. That said, the system as is has become a completely unregulated wild west. At some point, a governing body will need to pump the brakes and at least attempt to properly regulate it. It won't be an easy task. Structuring it and enforcing it both will be nightmarish moving forward.

I think it would be relatively easy if they would just think about it a bit. I think the easiest way would be to have a NIL cap. The NIL cap for FBS schools could be a little different than for FCS, and depend on the number of scholarships a school is allowed to have.

I would do that then have an audit system of all the schools. Really keep that under the eye to make sure everyone is playing right. If a school does not play by the rules and cheats, than really hit them hard with a set standard of penalties listed on a menu so everyone knows of the consequences. Make the punishment hard enough to deter schools from cheating. I mean throw the books at them. If you do that to a couple and they take you seriously, it can take care of itself but be consistent.
 
I think it would be relatively easy if they would just think about it a bit. I think the easiest way would be to have a NIL cap. The NIL cap for FBS schools could be a little different than for FCS, and depend on the number of scholarships a school is allowed to have.

I would do that then have an audit system of all the schools. Really keep that under the eye to make sure everyone is playing right. If a school does not play by the rules and cheats, than really hit them hard with a set standard of penalties listed on a menu so everyone knows of the consequences. Make the punishment hard enough to deter schools from cheating. I mean throw the books at them. If you do that to a couple and they take you seriously, it can take care of itself but be consistent.
The problem with a cap system is that the money itself doesn't really get generated by the school. Loosely based consortiums and collectives can be almost impossible to audit, so you would have to figure out some way of turning the proceeds into salary. The challenge then becomes regulation of NIL revenue outside of the salary. Attempting to do so could easily be argued as an infringement of personal rights.

Look at professional sports for example. Salary caps exist primarily in an attempt to even out the playing field. The problem is that the "big market" teams have the advantage of easier access to ancillary revenue from corporations, so that becomes part of the recruiting pitch - not to mention other factors such as climate, etc.

With globalization and media expansion, it's less of an issue than say in the 60s and 70s, but it remains a factor. Back in the day, NFL teams would threaten to trade players to Green Bay during contract negotiations. Sure, the salary may have been about the same, but good luck making much extra money doing local commercials for Fuzzy Thurston's pub...
 
The problem with a cap system is that the money itself doesn't really get generated by the school. Loosely based consortiums and collectives can be almost impossible to audit, so you would have to figure out some way of turning the proceeds into salary. The challenge then becomes regulation of NIL revenue outside of the salary. Attempting to do so could easily be argued as an infringement of personal rights.

Look at professional sports for example. Salary caps exist primarily in an attempt to even out the playing field. The problem is that the "big market" teams have the advantage of easier access to ancillary revenue from corporations, so that becomes part of the recruiting pitch - not to mention other factors such as climate, etc.

With globalization and media expansion, it's less of an issue than say in the 60s and 70s, but it remains a factor. Back in the day, NFL teams would threaten to trade players to Green Bay during contract negotiations. Sure, the salary may have been about the same, but good luck making much extra money doing local commercials for Fuzzy Thurston's pub...
Yea, I realize that is the key obstacle but I still think something could be done to regulate it. That is the one question or area that trips up the idea, I get it. But, it's tied to the school and these now employees who play for them. Ok, the have the private NIL managers have a CAP and be audited. It can be done but might take some thought and manipulation.

But, this is also the loophole people are obviously using to exploit the system and is the hole in the entire deal.
 
Yea, I realize that is the key obstacle but I still think something could be done to regulate it. That is the one question or area that trips up the idea, I get it. But, it's tied to the school and these now employees who play for them. Ok, the have the private NIL managers have a CAP and be audited. It can be done but might take some thought and manipulation.

But, this is also the loophole people are obviously using to exploit the system and is the hole in the entire deal.

A cap would be extremely unlikely to survive any level of judicial scrutiny in an antitrust suit, which is all that the NCAA cares about right now. Salary caps in other sports leagues are fine because they are the result of a collective bargaining process that every union member consents to as a condition precedent to joining that particular league. That structure simply doesn't exist in the NCAA and it would open a pandora's box if it comes into being.
 
I think it would be relatively easy if they would just think about it a bit. I think the easiest way would be to have a NIL cap. The NIL cap for FBS schools could be a little different than for FCS, and depend on the number of scholarships a school is allowed to have.

I would do that then have an audit system of all the schools. Really keep that under the eye to make sure everyone is playing right. If a school does not play by the rules and cheats, than really hit them hard with a set standard of penalties listed on a menu so everyone knows of the consequences. Make the punishment hard enough to deter schools from cheating. I mean throw the books at them. If you do that to a couple and they take you seriously, it can take care of itself but be consistent.
There is a good reason there are salary caps in professional sports.
 
My buddy worked in a senior role for a big, name brand school. He was told by the head basketball coach that every single guy on his team, all the way down to the guy who just comes in for mopup duty, legitimately believes that he is good enough to play in the NBA.

My buddy didn't believe it, so he asked again. Yes, yes they all think they are good enough to play in the NBA. He would ask the players in one off settings. He didn't ask them all, but yes, everyone he asked legitimately told him he was good enough to play in the NBA.

I suspect it holds true across sports. Imagine being Tyler Goodson. You got some awards in high school, put up some decent numbers in the Big Ten, you think you are good enough to play in the NFL. The coach says "Tyler, we're going to reduce your workload a little bit, we have a freshman who is going to do short yardage and there's another guy who is a little better at catching the ball out of the backfield who will get half of the third down reps." You have Tyler who just absolutely knows he is an NFL caliber player, on one side, and a coach trying to win games on the other side. If Tyler fails to make it to the NFL, it ain't his fault, he's good enough. It's the coach's fault if he doesn't make it. I believe that is the driver of maybe 3/4ths of the portal entrants. Guys who are just absolutely convinced they are future stars, they've been told as much their whole life, they just need to get away from the team that is holding them back. In a case like Penix or Burrow, yeah, it's true, but those guys are massive outliers and exceptions to the rule. For every Joe Burrow there are probably at least 100 Deuce Hogans.

My dad didn't believe in the term "self-esteem." He thought it would destroy American society. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong, but I lived across the highway from a "wrestling dad" who had three kids who went on to be D-1 wrestlers. By the time I was 7 I knew that I had no chance in hell of beating those dudes and my dad didn't do anything to dissuade me of the notion because he wasn't going to lie to me to protect my ego. His words of encouragement were always of the variety of "get better, get used to losing or quit."

My older brother moved to New York a day after graduating from Iowa State. He was an extremely gifted singer and had big hopes of making it on Broadway. He went to tryouts for a few weeks and quickly realized just how little being one of the handful of best singers in Iowa meant out in the real world and he switched to being a "hobbyist" in that world. The problem in sports is that the overwhelming majority of these guys have parents and cheerleaders who tell them "you're the man and nothing is gonna stop you from playing in the NFL." They have no self-awareness and no ability to understand that they just aren't good enough to make it through the filtering mechanisms as the level of competition increases. The kids now have parents who got brainwashed into the self-esteem cult that kicked off in earnest back in the '80's. They have not developed much self-awareness and so whenever anything doesn't go their way it is clearly someone else's fault, and then when that defense mechanism is exhausted many of these guys fall into a downward spiral of mental health problems.
Interesting perspective and I tend to agree. I wouldn't say it goes quite so far back as the 80s though...probably a little more recent. One thing for sure. The most recent version of this has taken it to an entirely new level. Plenty of 20 and 30 year olds can't even conceive of having to be responsible for themselves and their outcomes at all...and they completely melt down when faced with life's realities. They deserve everything, now, and if you dare challenge that you're a horrible, mean person.

A good chuck of our society is "f***ed" and dare I say it's been done to them with some degree of intent. We're headed toward a complete nanny state and that is no accident.
 
My buddy worked in a senior role for a big, name brand school. He was told by the head basketball coach that every single guy on his team, all the way down to the guy who just comes in for mopup duty, legitimately believes that he is good enough to play in the NBA.

My buddy didn't believe it, so he asked again. Yes, yes they all think they are good enough to play in the NBA. He would ask the players in one off settings. He didn't ask them all, but yes, everyone he asked legitimately told him he was good enough to play in the NBA.

I suspect it holds true across sports. Imagine being Tyler Goodson. You got some awards in high school, put up some decent numbers in the Big Ten, you think you are good enough to play in the NFL. The coach says "Tyler, we're going to reduce your workload a little bit, we have a freshman who is going to do short yardage and there's another guy who is a little better at catching the ball out of the backfield who will get half of the third down reps." You have Tyler who just absolutely knows he is an NFL caliber player, on one side, and a coach trying to win games on the other side. If Tyler fails to make it to the NFL, it ain't his fault, he's good enough. It's the coach's fault if he doesn't make it. I believe that is the driver of maybe 3/4ths of the portal entrants. Guys who are just absolutely convinced they are future stars, they've been told as much their whole life, they just need to get away from the team that is holding them back. In a case like Penix or Burrow, yeah, it's true, but those guys are massive outliers and exceptions to the rule. For every Joe Burrow there are probably at least 100 Deuce Hogans.

My dad didn't believe in the term "self-esteem." He thought it would destroy American society. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong, but I lived across the highway from a "wrestling dad" who had three kids who went on to be D-1 wrestlers. By the time I was 7 I knew that I had no chance in hell of beating those dudes and my dad didn't do anything to dissuade me of the notion because he wasn't going to lie to me to protect my ego. His words of encouragement were always of the variety of "get better, get used to losing or quit."

My older brother moved to New York a day after graduating from Iowa State. He was an extremely gifted singer and had big hopes of making it on Broadway. He went to tryouts for a few weeks and quickly realized just how little being one of the handful of best singers in Iowa meant out in the real world and he switched to being a "hobbyist" in that world. The problem in sports is that the overwhelming majority of these guys have parents and cheerleaders who tell them "you're the man and nothing is gonna stop you from playing in the NFL." They have no self-awareness and no ability to understand that they just aren't good enough to make it through the filtering mechanisms as the level of competition increases. The kids now have parents who got brainwashed into the self-esteem cult that kicked off in earnest back in the '80's. They have not developed much self-awareness and so whenever anything doesn't go their way it is clearly someone else's fault, and then when that defense mechanism is exhausted many of these guys fall into a downward spiral of mental health problems.

I rarely read long posts but this one I did. Good post with a good final point.

This came to mind as I read above: self esteem is more than confidence to succeed at something. Its a deep abiding sense that I'm OK. Even if I don't succeed at something, I'm OK. Rather than I'm OK because I can, its I'm OK because I am...

Its amazing to watch people encounter calamity... some come through and some are knocked down and some are pretty much destroyed.

By the way if you're 40 years old and havn't had a life shattering event .... you're behind schedule.
 
I rarely read long posts but this one I did. Good post with a good final point.

This came to mind as I read above: self esteem is more than confidence to succeed at something. Its a deep abiding sense that I'm OK. Even if I don't succeed at something, I'm OK. Rather than I'm OK because I can, its I'm OK because I am...

Its amazing to watch people encounter calamity... some come through and some are knocked down and some are pretty much destroyed.

By the way if you're 40 years old and havn't had a life shattering event .... you're behind schedule.

Mine started when I was 13 and the death of my mom. Had some after that, which ironically may be contributed from from my mother's death.

I agree, if you are middle aged and really haven't dealt with a major life setback, I'm thinking of ya.

You kind of get conditioned to setbacks but the 40 yr old may not be.
 
I rarely read long posts but this one I did. Good post with a good final point.

This came to mind as I read above: self esteem is more than confidence to succeed at something. Its a deep abiding sense that I'm OK. Even if I don't succeed at something, I'm OK. Rather than I'm OK because I can, its I'm OK because I am...

Its amazing to watch people encounter calamity... some come through and some are knocked down and some are pretty much destroyed.

By the way if you're 40 years old and havn't had a life shattering event .... you're behind schedule.

Yeah, sorry that post got long on me. One thing that I think is really missing for youngsters now, and I try really hard to foster this, is earned achievements. When I was young I built models and hobby grade radio control stuff. You just had to figure out a lot of crap on your own. But you got a major sense of accomplishment when you figured out to warp a piece into shape or get an airplane that you built from a stack of balsa wood and shrink wrap airborne. I think Legos are pretty good, but it is a very controlled process where virtually nothing can go wrong and there is no permanence to what you do. You can always just deconstruct to a specific point and go from there. It may sound crazy, but I think that modern video games where you can buy your way to the end or Legos are way too controlled and are designed to purposely lower the bar to achievement so they can generate repeat business. It doesn't teach kids to plan 6 steps in advance or how to deal with contingencies that happen in the process.

In a nutshell, what I believe we have done as a society is lower the bar so much for achievements that they now mean basically nothing and this actually destroys self-esteem because so many of the fake achievements are so patronizing to smart kids. And then when confronted with an actual hardship youngsters become paralyzed.
 
I think this turns into shit show! I'd rather pay a million dollars and compete to get the smartest kid to be the greatest damn brain surgeon to remove the tumor from my head than someone to throw a football. Society today is all about now and the 1st place trophy now. No need to work for it, No need to earn it, no experience in it. I guess if I had the skills and young in today's world I'd probably feel differently. But I know this, I'd rather fly in the jet that was built by the guy that designed, tested it, refined it from his trials, tribulations and experience over a few years than the one who built it, didn’t test it nor even knows it will get off the ground and says hop on let's go because it looks good on paper. In my time I learned more from the older guys that had been around the block awhile than I ever did the engineer who just graduated and hadn't a clue what the hell the thing was even meant to do. Society is so f**ked! Guess the free tuition with earned scholarship doesn't me shit anymore. When we're cutting school funding for teaching, and other school needs to update a football stadium, i.e nebraska, there's a f**king problem and it isn't going to get better anytime soon. Priorities are blinded! I'm all for a kid to earn certain proceeds for jerseys and things in that nature but to be paying thousands to million dollars to play college football just give me a break. Hell get rid of the nfl! No need for it! We got college football to replace it!
 

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