Question 2...if you look at college football teams as a whole they end up with a nebraska-type scenario way more often than not, so I don't think it's anywhere near a 50/50 proposition. Not even close. How many teams do you see that have decades of winning seasons and stability get better after a new hire? It's not very many. How many do you see go south and then have 3 head coaches in 10 years? That happens a whole lot. The odds of things falling apart are, like I said, exponentially higher than going from frequent 10-win seasons to being even better and making the CFP.
Mentioning Texas in the same breath as Iowa when it comes to football is ignorant. Texas has literal billions in oil money, national brand recognition, a national fan base, and their own TV network. The two entities could not be more different than one another