If you have any doubts…
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Fryowa
Administrator
Funny that you brought up Wisconsin. I agree, they've had a mostly good run when Barry took over, then it ended up going to Bielema and Chryst who had some great seasons, and then the admin and fans got in a mindset that it wasn't good enough with Chryst and tossed him out like @BigD is suggesting. And look what happened...
It's obvious that Fickell isn't the answer, and now Wisconsin has a situation on their hands like the Pelini/Riley/Frost debacle that completely ruined nebraska's program. They ain't ever getting out of that hole.
I'm not trying to say KF is going to last forever, but the guy has had 26 years of overall success and most importantly stability. You don't throw that out and hope to pick one green marble out of a semi-load full of red marbles because you have a bunch of dumbass fans mad that you didn't make the playoffs or lost to a worse team a couple times.
Bordone
Well-Known Member
Nope, being a DC and being a head coach are two very different skill sets. He does not have the head coach skill set.
vividly remember sitting behind the Iowa sideline in 2013 at OSU and listening to Phil scream obscenities at his secondary for giving up the late touchdown to the point KF had to pull him aside and settle him down.
I honestly think the only in house hire that makes sense is Woods.
Fryowa
Administrator
Phil Parker is on record many times over the years saying he has no interest in a head coaching job. He would’ve had one a long time ago if that’s what he wanted.
I've always been under the belief that Kirk had plans for retirement.
Not specific plans, as in...hand it off to Brain. That might have been a dream or a hope, but I firmly believe that he *had* a retirement plan that would have seen him voluntarily bow out before his contract was up, and in such a way that the AD could move in concert with naming a replacement in order to maintain as much stability as possible. If there's a guy who understands stability....and a less-than-optimal handoff from previous longtime coach, it's Ferentz.
Course, that was before the portal became a gaping maw. Not sure how you do that now. That would take some intense coordination and I'm not sure Goetz had the capital to both oust Brain AND have a hand in the selection of an OC who is the designated successor-to-be. Still possible, of course that Lester could wind up being 'the guy'.
Either way, I don't think it matters so much anyway. That's something literally every program has to deal with.
The loss of Parker will ultimately be a tougher road to navigate. That loss could have a far greater impact on transfers/recruits flipping/etc. than a head coach at Iowa.
Not specific plans, as in...hand it off to Brain. That might have been a dream or a hope, but I firmly believe that he *had* a retirement plan that would have seen him voluntarily bow out before his contract was up, and in such a way that the AD could move in concert with naming a replacement in order to maintain as much stability as possible. If there's a guy who understands stability....and a less-than-optimal handoff from previous longtime coach, it's Ferentz.
Course, that was before the portal became a gaping maw. Not sure how you do that now. That would take some intense coordination and I'm not sure Goetz had the capital to both oust Brain AND have a hand in the selection of an OC who is the designated successor-to-be. Still possible, of course that Lester could wind up being 'the guy'.
Either way, I don't think it matters so much anyway. That's something literally every program has to deal with.
The loss of Parker will ultimately be a tougher road to navigate. That loss could have a far greater impact on transfers/recruits flipping/etc. than a head coach at Iowa.
Fryowa
Administrator
I feel like Kirk's not the type of guy who's going to surprise (if you can call it that) everyone with it with an announcement at the end of the year. That would be terrible for the program because it leaves the least amount of time possible to find a replacement and then you're up against the clock scrambling which is never good, especially in today's environment. If he comes out and says it in December or January then you're screwed trying to find someone to recruit in an already impossible situation.
What I think he'd do is announce it at the start of his final year (whether it's at the end of the contract or he decides to quit in the middle of it) so they can give themselves the best odds of continuity. Of course I don't know the guy personally, but I don't think he'd all the sudden come out and leave the program high and dry.
When coaches leave it's normally under one of three sets of circumstances...they either get fired, get poached to another team, or they retire. Situations 1 & 2 ain't happening to Kirk, so I think whatever happens will be as good as circumstances can be.
I also don't see him leaving in the middle of a contract as long as he's healthy but I could be wrong.
I guess, I can see that, too.
I mean, if the plan was to let Brain slowly take over more and more and essentially serve out the last few seasons as more or less co-head coaches. Kirk had enough capital and command that he had the upper hand over the AD department. So, it coulda worked.
I'm hoping....he and Goetz can work together to either execute this (or some other) plan in the future.
Only problem is, I don't think Goetz had the capital to 'approve/mandate/dictage' the Lester hire. Then again, he could still wind up being "the guy". Or maybe someone else in program already. Or someone they might 'agree' on as they get closer to 2029.
I don't know if Kirk is magnanimous enough to allow Goetz to 'choose' that someone freely if they worked together for a handoff. But, hopefully they work together on whatever they do.
Or, as you suggest the likelihood of him announcing it at the start of the season. Could still combine that with an 'early' and coordinated handoff to someone. 2029 is still a ways off.
Either way, it would absolutely be good for the program, the school, and Kirk to announce it early in any season, even if it's 2029. Ideally when he thinks they have at least a decent team. A whole season send off of a generally well respected, arguably quite successful, coach who happens to have the most wins in the Big 10. You're almost guaranteed a Game Day. Certainly some prime-time games. No problems selling tickets and promoting additional events ancillary to the game.
Fryowa
Administrator
Donors cannot be overlooked or left out of the equation.
Big donors will have a humongous say in who the next coach is. Goetz will be a part of it, but she won't be just going out there and looking. It's just the way it works at this level nowadays. If they don't have the ability to be involved the money goes away and they aren't going to let that happen. My fleeting hope is those donors have a strong preference not to blow the program up into chaos and that KF is on that same page, meaning I hope the pool of candidates is from within or at least someone connected to the program. If the big money has a strong preference that it's Lester or Woods I think it'd be a great thing and could lead to another quarter century of what we've had since the late 70s. I'd probably die satisfied if someone could do that again. A lot of people don't realize that sooooo much is riding on this hire.
One thing is 100% certain. In a few short years this program is either going to have a smooth transition and maintain the stability we've had for so long, or it's going to be a total destroying of the apple cart and the Fry/Ferentz way of life we've watched for a generation is going to be over. There's absolutely no in-between. What we've known for the past 45 years isn't going to survive if they get it wrong and the chances of getting it wrong are high. I will say that if they go down the wrong road I don't have the interest in watching or following anymore; I'm too old to turn into what nebraska fans are or watch what's happening to MSU or Wisconsin happen to the Hawkeyes. I'll always be a fan but I don't have the heart to care about it at my age if that's what happens. I feel incredibly lucky to have grown up in the good years and had the experiences with my 17 year old son either way.
I wonder how KF will navigate the end of his tenure because, he is on record as telling recruits that he is going to be around for their entire 4 years. Coaches make promises like that all the time and break them just as easily. But Ferentz is probably one of the more honest coaches in the business. At some point, unless they appoint an assistant on the staff as the "coach-in-waiting" and everyone knows he's retiring, he is probably going to have to break that promise.
Fryowa
Administrator
At some point you have to know as a recruit and parent that people and careers don't last forever and I'd have to think they'd be keeping that in their minds. As an aside to that, I don't think I'd be comfortable telling a teenager who has zero obligation to you or the team that you have someone in waiting. Teenagers can keep a secret for about 13 seconds before they blast it over Snapchat.
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
I'd be shocked if it ever slips out that Kirk is retiring before the end of a season. In my opinion, the last thing he'd want is dealing with extra questions or send-offs.
I also don't think it is out of the question that he'll wait until spring or summer before stepping down. That would make Goetz more likely to pick an internal candidate, even on an interim basis. That would give the staff several months to start networking and making back-up plans in case the interim coach doesn't get the job full time in December or January. Essentially the assistants would get 6-8 months heads-up instead of 3-4 weeks.
I also don't think it is out of the question that he'll wait until spring or summer before stepping down. That would make Goetz more likely to pick an internal candidate, even on an interim basis. That would give the staff several months to start networking and making back-up plans in case the interim coach doesn't get the job full time in December or January. Essentially the assistants would get 6-8 months heads-up instead of 3-4 weeks.
Fryowa
Administrator
Kirk is the undisputed king of dodging questions.
He'd have zero trouble saying "I'm not worried about any of that right now, our focus is on practice during the week and games on Saturday."
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
Right, but why would he ever choose to bring all that extra attention if he didn't need to? I have a hard time seeing Kirk ever make that kind of an announcement with games still to be played....like you say, my guess is he'll always say "I find the work engaging, feel healthy, no plans to step away anytime soon." Until there is a press release one day between season's end and 4th of July that says after many long walk and talks with Mary, they've decided the time is right for the next phase of their life together. Effective tomorrow.
