Hurricane Flo Thread

Good stuff Bob. Thank you. Just curious do you work in government because I would think FEMA or other agencies could use more guys like you.

BTW the European model differs from ours in that Florence will turn south and run just off the coast toward Charleston. They are predicting more widespread rainfall than US model. Next update at 5:00 pm eastern time.

European model has historically been more accurate but we have invested millions in a newer system since last year's storms per Hurricane Center expert this morning. Apparently not fully functioning yet???
 
NCHawker said:
because over the last 25 years people have been indoctrinated to look to the federal government to solve problems.
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The network of southern churches and Lowe's will probably do 3x more than the federal government could even hope to do in the first week after the storm save for immediate evac operations the national guard helps with. The biggest thing the feds can do is stroke some checks to help people rebuild on the dangerous areas that are highly prone to sever storm risk.
 
skinnykilmer17 said:
Good stuff Bob. Thank you. Just curious do you work in government because I would think FEMA or other agencies could use more guys like you.

BTW the European model differs from ours in that Florence will turn south and run just off the coast toward Charleston. They are predicting more widespread rainfall than US model. Next update at 5:00 pm eastern time.

European model has historically been more accurate but we have invested millions in a newer system since last year's storms per Hurricane Center expert this morning. Apparently not fully functioning yet???
Click to expand...

I run a small business, a 24-hour call center. I learned by necessity. If you want a crash course, I can give it!

One of the problems is when they do the initial "Invest", they don't do a good job of showing upper-level shear/pressure/etc., and pairing it with historical models, then "prioritizing" which areas need to be on alert/high-alert/uber-high-alert. They also don't show historical storm terns. Georgia, for example, NEVER gets direct hits on the coast. When the Carolinas get hit, count on SERIOUS frigging damage and a "squall-line" of damage up the coastal and near-coastal highways. When a storm is off the Florida East Coast and staying off, tree damage is almost worse inland than near-coast. West Coast of Florida rarely gets direct hits, as well. And if the thing is coming up the middle of the state, I know it doesn't lose intensity the way it does when it goes SE to NW. It's bizarre, but the patterns are there.

Supplies and preps are a curious thing. Some stuff is essential, of course, but last year for Ifrma, people were panicking a week in advance that there was no bottled water. Seriously? C'mon, people, they're called "containers"! Empty milk jugs, coffee cans, 2-liter plastic bottles, whatever, EVERYone who lives a sane, normal life has something to put water into!
 
NCHawker said:
because over the last 25 years people have been indoctrinated to look to the federal government to solve problems.
Click to expand...

Well, luckily a hurricane is a natural disaster that gives one about a week to get the hell out of dodge. If people don't heed the warnings, then......................
 
hawkeyebob62 said:
I run a small business, a 24-hour call center. I learned by necessity. If you want a crash course, I can give it!

One of the problems is when they do the initial "Invest", they don't do a good job of showing upper-level shear/pressure/etc., and pairing it with historical models, then "prioritizing" which areas need to be on alert/high-alert/uber-high-alert. They also don't show historical storm terns. Georgia, for example, NEVER gets direct hits on the coast. When the Carolinas get hit, count on SERIOUS frigging damage and a "squall-line" of damage up the coastal and near-coastal highways. When a storm is off the Florida East Coast and staying off, tree damage is almost worse inland than near-coast. West Coast of Florida rarely gets direct hits, as well. And if the thing is coming up the middle of the state, I know it doesn't lose intensity the way it does when it goes SE to NW. It's bizarre, but the patterns are there.

Supplies and preps are a curious thing. Some stuff is essential, of course, but last year for Ifrma, people were panicking a week in advance that there was no bottled water. Seriously? C'mon, people, they're called "containers"! Empty milk jugs, coffee cans, 2-liter plastic bottles, whatever, EVERYone who lives a sane, normal life has something to put water into!
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What, think on your own!! Well, that sounds like just a bit too much work to do Bob. Unfortunately, that is the mind frame of much of our population anymore.
 
MelroseHawkins said:

What, think on your own!! Well, that sounds like just a bit too much work to do Bob. Unfortunately, that is the mind frame of much of our population anymore.
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But as I noted, too often people get bad or conflicting info. And the only time to really leave vs. "shelter-in-place" is if you live in direct eye path or right on the coast. People who leave Orlando end up going to a place that gets rain dumped on them inland. In 2004, a ton of people left Tampa and west/Gulf Coast to come over to Orlando. Of course, we took a direct, kick-to-the-nuts hit! Of course, if you're in a trailer, mobile home or something less substantial, that also is a good reason to EVAC.
 
okeefe4prez said:
The network of southern churches and Lowe's will probably do 3x more than the federal government could even hope to do in the first week after the storm save for immediate evac operations the national guard helps with. The biggest thing the feds can do is stroke some checks to help people rebuild on the dangerous areas that are highly prone to sever storm risk.
Click to expand...

Spot on. After Katrina, Wal-Mart did more than any government entity, government employee association/union/alliance or mainline church denomination. They were stroking checks like a madman, especially to areas where Red Cross had actual volunteer leadership in place. The key is to get your county declared as ER/Disaster area. It gives you direct contact with THE key check-writers and people/resource-movers, both state and Federal.
 
skinnykilmer17 said:
Good stuff Bob. Thank you. Just curious do you work in government because I would think FEMA or other agencies could use more guys like you.

BTW the European model differs from ours in that Florence will turn south and run just off the coast toward Charleston. They are predicting more widespread rainfall than US model. Next update at 5:00 pm eastern time.

European model has historically been more accurate but we have invested millions in a newer system since last year's storms per Hurricane Center expert this morning. Apparently not fully functioning yet???
Click to expand...

Although I often rank on our government types and attendant agencies, there ARE some great resources on government websites. Not a lot of "life-hack" type stuff, but good info nonetheless.

One thing I did was take a CERT course (Community Emergency Response Team) after 9/11. Fun stuff for neighborhood groups to do. Like...setting up your neighborhood medical triage. And of course, setting up your neighborhood morgue. Fun stuff!
 
FYI, you all WILL get through this. It ain't particularly "fun", but neither is it as bad as CNN or your local news wants you to believe. Be smart, i.e., don't play with downed power lines, or step outside for a smoke mid-storm (especially stupid when people seek shelter under a tree to fire up the smoke). And have a thick skin, because you will need it.

What you see afterward will piss you off. Things like people in stores buying 8 bags of ice when the sign says "Limit 2 per person". Your neighbor getting a new generator, then having FEMA foot the bill, not even caring that you, me and the rest of us are what pays for FEMA to do it. The guy at the gas station in a car that should have been condemned 8 years ago, filling up the car AND his 7 ratty-ass gas cans. The fella who will approach you for "a couple bucks for gas because I got young-uns at home", then steps inside Race Trac and emerges with a 12-er of Coors Light and a carton of cigs. It WILL pass.

Reach out if you need anything!
 
I always wanted to pick up a power line...but after I jumped up in the air, then let go of it before I hit ground.

thought about creating a lightning rod put it on roof and use it to charge some batteries.

not as dramatic, but maybe take my chainsaw, notch a couple of trees that I want down in advance of the windy weather.. and hope they don't land on my house.
 
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NCHawker said:
I always wanted to pick up a power line...but after I jumped up in the air, then let go of it before I hit ground.

thought about crating a lightning rod put it on roof and use it to charge some batteries.

not as dramatic, but maybe take my chainsaw, notch a couple of trees that I want down in advance of the windy weather.. and hope they don't land on my house.
Click to expand...

See, that's the spirit. Humor will get you through it with flying colors!
 
Eye wall is collapsing as of 10:30 PM Wednesday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm report that the eyewall now wraps less than 50% of the center. All that water and wind energy is going to spread out. Florence is no longer at major hurricane intensity. If it really stalls just off shore there is going to be a historic rainfall event over a very large area for days.

I have a friend who used to live in Homestead, FL. He was there for Andrew. Andrew behaved just the opposite of the current predictions for Flo. It tightened up and became a wind event as it reached the shore. Two years after his neighborhood was still in shambles, and hadn't had electricity or phone service restored. It took six months for the water system to come back online. Most of the houses were heavily damaged or destroyed. His insurance company went bankrupt and the bureaucracy didn't seem interested in rebuilding anything. That's why he left. He ended up getting about 45 cents on the dollar after wasting two years of his life thinking he was going to be able to rebuild.
 
bitmap said:
Eye wall is collapsing as of 10:30 PM Wednesday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm report that the eyewall now wraps less than 50% of the center. All that water and wind energy is going to spread out. Florence is no longer at major hurricane intensity. If it really stalls just off shore there is going to be a historic rainfall event over a very large area for days.

I have a friend who used to live in Homestead, FL. He was there for Andrew. Andrew behaved just the opposite of the current predictions for Flo. It tightened up and became a wind event as it reached the shore. Two years after his neighborhood was still in shambles, and hadn't had electricity or phone service restored. It took six months for the water system to come back online. Most of the houses were heavily damaged or destroyed. His insurance company went bankrupt and the bureaucracy didn't seem interested in rebuilding anything. That's why he left. He ended up getting about 45 cents on the dollar after wasting two years of his life thinking he was going to be able to rebuild.
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The eye wall collapsing is huge. Dry air being pulled in from SW also mitigates some effect. Question becomes if/when it stalls, and for how long.

There is definitely upper level shear and high pressure approaching from NW. But, this is going to be a big bitch of a storm, regardless. And it can always tighten up, again, as well.

One phenomenon that rarely gets mentioned is that, even when storm gets downgraded, it's effect once it makes landfall doesn't reduce accordingly. Also, wind speed is a poor single-indicator measurement.

Florida surfers will have some good raw material. They are expecting waves up to 10 feet. Driveable beaches will not be so driveable for a few days.
 
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