How likely are the 2012-13 Hawks to get 25 wins (incl. postseason)?

How likely is a seven-win improvement (25 total) from 2011-12 to 2012-13?

  • It's going to be close: 40-60% chance

    Votes: 13 13.4%

  • It's probably going to happen: 60-90% chance

    Votes: 6 6.2%

  • It's not likely, but reasonable: 10-40% chance

    Votes: 24 24.7%

  • It's a virtual lock; I heart Fran: >90% chance

    Votes: 5 5.2%

  • It's not realistic yet, but I still heart Fran: <10% chance

    Votes: 49 50.5%
  • Total voters
    97
Cover3

Cover3

Well-Known Member
Woodbury is quoted in an article in another thread as saying they could more than match the seven-game improvement seen between 2010-11 and 2011-12. The Hawks would have definitely won games last March that they did not win in November and December, but how likely is it that they net seven more wins?

I'd put that likelihood at less than ten percent. They seem to be heavily upgrading the talent, but I think the the marginal benefit of the upgrade is going to be small at first. For example, Gesell may be better than Cartwright, but not so much better (yet) that the probable dropoff from Gatens to Oglesby is overcome and exceeded in spades. In a year or two, I think the upgrade will be more complete, but for now, I think a three- or four-win improvement is the most likely; around 19-12 in the regular season.

What does HN think about the chance for 25 wins? Probable? Crazy talk? Somewhere in between?
 
Well it's certainly good to know an 18 yr old kid who has yet to even put on a practice jersey seems to think it's not much of a problem for us to improve yet another 7 games this year. Seriously? 25 wins is a BIG number. Let's not get crazy and set expectations in the stratosphere. We need to dominate in non-conference and then at least be 500 in conference, which we all know is not an easy thing to do. Losing Gatens is gonna be a tougher pill to swallow than I think alot of us want to admit due to many reasons, not the least of which was his leadership (on and off the court), scoring, and defense. I'm not convinced Ogelsby is ready to just step in (nor anybody else for that matter) and be his replacement from day one, meaning, non-conference games could be tougher than we might want them to be. We have a nice class (on paper) coming in, however, our core will be very young. I'm extremely excited and pumped for what's going on, BUT...25 wins at this point would seem insane. I'm thinking more in the 20-22 range for the regular season with a strong shot at a NCAA bid.
 
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Let me clarify the Woodbury quote: he said, “The improvement that [Coach Fran] showed from his first year to last year also speaks for itself. So I think we can make an even bigger jump this year.” He didn't explicitly mention win totals or say making such a jump would be easy, but my takeaway was that he was talking about the win total.

Woodbury plans to play locally, even if he lands on USA team | Hawk Central

Sorry if my paraphrasing in the OP was misleading, but I jumped to start the new thread from this similar debate in another thread that stemmed from the quote.
 
BasketballMan said:
Well it's certainly good to know an 18 yr old kid who has yet to even put on a practice jersey seems to think it's not much of a problem for us to improve yet another 7 games this year. Seriously? 25 wins is a BIG number. Let's not get crazy and set expectations in the stratosphere. We need to dominate in non-conference and then at least be 500 in conference, which we all know is not an easy thing to do. Losing Gatens is gonna be a tougher pill to swallow than I think alot of us want to admit due to many reasons, not the least of which was his leadership (on and off the court), scoring, and defense. I'm not convinced Ogelsby is ready to just step in (nor anybody else for that matter) and be his replacement from day one, meaning, non-conference games could be tougher than we might want them to be. We have a nice class (on paper) coming in, however, our core will be very young. I'm extremely excited and pumped for what's going on, BUT...25 wins at this point would seem insane. I'm thinking more in the 20-22 range for the regular season with a strong shot at a NCAA bid.
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I`m gonna have Zach Mooneyham bodyslam you on my way to Dunk and your coach BO Ryan would grinch his face and look at the Eddie Hightower for a foul which he won`t give....... 30 - 0 seasons is 100% possible with your ugly grinch who stole St, Nichol`s christmas down in tiolet water! bodyslam awesome, yeah!:D I intend to spell BO this way cuz he stinks ...:D
 
I would love to see a 7 win improvement next season but I just do not see that as a realistic possibility yet. A lot is going to depend on how much they can improve in the non conference and not stumble like they did last season. IMO a 20 win season would be on the high end of my expectations.
 
ssckelley said:
I would love to see a 7 win improvement next season but I just do not see that as a realistic possibility yet. A lot is going to depend on how much they can improve in the non conference and not stumble like they did last season. IMO a 20 win season would be on the high end of my expectations.
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7 wins every year Woodbury is here. His senior year they will win 46 games. Book it.
 
atomicblue224 said:
I`m gonna have Zach Mooneyham bodyslam you on my way to Dunk and your coach BO Ryan would grinch his face and look at the Eddie Hightower for a foul which he won`t give....... 30 - 0 seasons is 100% possible with your ugly grinch who stole St, Nichol`s christmas down in tiolet water! bodyslam awesome, yeah!:D I intend to spell BO this way cuz he stinks ...:D
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Well said blue.....well said.
 
I am sure the coach and players will set very high goals that are equal or greater than some of the expectations of us fans. Goals should always be set at a level that pushes others to strive to be their best. I would love 25 wins and am not going to say it is impossible, however when a teams loses its top two guards from the previous year there will naturally be a few rough patches as the new guards learn the system and learn to be leaders. Our two new BIGS will need time to develope their offensive abilities but their defensive presence will be felt immediately in a very positive way. This upcoming season will be very entertaining and fun to watch but the year after will be the year of the Iowa Hawkeyes in the BIG 10.
 
atomicblue224 said:
I`m gonna have Zach Mooneyham bodyslam you on my way to Dunk and your coach BO Ryan would grinch his face and look at the Eddie Hightower for a foul which he won`t give....... 30 - 0 seasons is 100% possible with your ugly grinch who stole St, Nichol`s christmas down in tiolet water! bodyslam awesome, yeah!:D I intend to spell BO this way cuz he stinks ...:D
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I believe every team believes there is a chance to go undefeated and win the national championship every preseason......

That first loss brings things down to reality. We should win a few more games, who knows how many. The B1G is always tough, and the Lads need seasoning quickly.....

All that said, I wholeheartedly agree with Atomic's expert analysis.....

:)
 
jacknicholson said:
I believe every team believes there is a chance to go undefeated and win the national championship every preseason......

That first loss brings things down to reality. We should win a few more games, who knows how many. The B1G is always tough, and the Lads need seasoning quickly.....

All that said, I wholeheartedly agree with Atomic's expert analysis.....

:)
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This post is As Good As It Gets.
 
If this would have been 20 wins, I would say very good chance = 80-90%. I mean that's only 2 more wins than they got this year and most everyone expects a better team. 1 more B1G win and a couple in pre-season and you've got 21.

25 wins is pushing it this year because of inexperience but I look forward to at least that in 2013-14 when we'll have everyone but May back and another wing (don't know who) Fran's sure to pick up.
 
jacknicholson said:
You are very kind, Cover.....

I will be watching the Celts dominate tonight at the Garden.....

:)
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I've twice today tried to reply to your posts with titles of Nicholson movies. Don't get me wrong, though, that doesn't change the sentiment at all.

As for the Celts, they've definitely got the town abuzz. Really didn't hear much about them until the Bruins got knocked out. Could be two years in a row with an early-summer victory parade here.

Time to give Miami a Shining.
 
BasketballMan said:
Celtics in 7.
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I really hope so basketball man, they were one free throw or basket away from winning the second game in Miami.....

I love Ray Allen, always have, maybe the classiest player in pro basketball.....

Need him to catch fire, then the Celts will win, hopefully that is.....

:)
 
Cover3 said:
I've twice today tried to reply to your posts with titles of Nicholson movies. Don't get me wrong, though, that doesn't change the sentiment at all.

As for the Celts, they've definitely got the town abuzz. Really didn't hear much about them until the Bruins got knocked out. Could be two years in a row with an early-summer victory parade here.

Time to give Miami a Shining.
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Thanks, Cover, I caught the reference.....Cool.....

My father was born and raised in West Newton, Mass. and was a fanatic fan of all Boston sports.....

:)
 
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