How likely are the 2012-13 Hawks to get 25 wins (incl. postseason)?

How likely is a seven-win improvement (25 total) from 2011-12 to 2012-13?

  • It's going to be close: 40-60% chance

    Votes: 13 13.4%

  • It's probably going to happen: 60-90% chance

    Votes: 6 6.2%

  • It's not likely, but reasonable: 10-40% chance

    Votes: 24 24.7%

  • It's a virtual lock; I heart Fran: >90% chance

    Votes: 5 5.2%

  • It's not realistic yet, but I still heart Fran: <10% chance

    Votes: 49 50.5%
  • Total voters
    97
Good deal, Jack. My wife and I habe been out here for a year, living in Brighton. We go to a fantastic BBQ place in either W. Newton or Newtonville. Add in the fact that the nearest Target is in Watertown, and the nearest Wendy's is in Waltham, we're pretty familiar with that area of town. Can't say that about almost all of the other suburbs, though, haha.
 
Can't recall...does Bob Cousy still play for the Celts? Jungle Jim Luscotove? Bill Russell? Tommy Heinsohn? KC Jones? I just haven't watched them for a while and would like to catch up.:confused:
 
ssckelley said:
I would love to see a 7 win improvement next season but I just do not see that as a realistic possibility yet. A lot is going to depend on how much they can improve in the non conference and not stumble like they did last season. IMO a 20 win season would be on the high end of my expectations.
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I agree!
 
doclee said:
Can't recall...does Bob Cousy still play for the Celts? Jungle Jim Luscotove? Bill Russell? Tommy Heinsohn? KC Jones? I just haven't watched them for a while and would like to catch up.:confused:
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I watched those guys with my father. Cousy was the best point guard I had ever seen. His passing was incredible, and that one handed set shot reminds me of how Anthony Clemmons shoots his three......

Don't forget Bill Sharman who had a very nice jump shot.....

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMdGcmHPrRI"]THE LEGEND - Bob Cousy MIX by MISIEK - YouTube[/ame]

Cousy's running hook shot at about 1:54 is a shot that is almost impossible to stop. Don't know why it is out of style these days. It is one of the easiest shots to make off the backboard. I used it all the time, once again, many years ago.....


:)
 
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UncleHawk said:
If this would have been 20 wins, I would say very good chance = 80-90%. I mean that's only 2 more wins than they got this year and most everyone expects a better team. 1 more B1G win and a couple in pre-season and you've got 21.

25 wins is pushing it this year because of inexperience but I look forward to at least that in 2013-14 when we'll have everyone but May back and another wing (don't know who) Fran's sure to pick up.
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Agree with Uncle; Getting to 20 wins will make me :). 21 wins really be great. Should they get over 22 :D. The 25 level would be a year or two away, imho.
 
25 wins is a heckuva season but don't think we're there yet. 20 wins is definitely reasonable IMO.

To get to 25 wins, I suspect the Hawks would pretty much have to win 20, get snubbed by the NCAA's, then win the NIT. Maybe.

Otherwise make a big run in the NCAA's, and/or have a real good regular season (23 wins or so) and make the Sweet 16. Again, I don't think we're going to be at that point yet this year. Would love to be wrong, though!
 
Cover3 said:
Let me clarify the Woodbury quote: he said, “The improvement that [Coach Fran] showed from his first year to last year also speaks for itself. So I think we can make an even bigger jump this year.” He didn't explicitly mention win totals or say making such a jump would be easy, but my takeaway was that he was talking about the win total.

Woodbury plans to play locally, even if he lands on USA team | Hawk Central

Sorry if my paraphrasing in the OP was misleading, but I jumped to start the new thread from this similar debate in another thread that stemmed from the quote.
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I didn't take Woodbury's quote to mean that. I actually agree with his statement that they could improve a lot as a team next year, but that doesn't necessarily translate into an equivalent number of wins. IMO, you have to improve quite a bit more to get from 12 to 18 wins (from historically bad to average) than it does to go from 18 to 25 (basically winning what will be a tough Big Ten conference).

But it does raise an interesting point to ask a poll question on, as you've done.

Still guessing they'll get around 18-22 wins, finish 7th or so in the Big Ten, and be a bubble team and get into the dance depending on their nonconference wins. Quite a bit of a jump in three years of Fran, all things considered. I could see 25 wins the following year.
 
They will get 20 wins...25 is pushing it. Basabe has to play very well and Marble would need to make another large leap...mostly in perimeter shooting...then it's possible.

They need to gel early to get as many non-conference wins as possible...that killed them last year.
 
Something like 22 is possible. 25 is very unlikely but it's the first time in a long time that it's even possible.
 
I'm gonna give my honest prediction:

Iowa is a bubble team all year and do not make it.

However, the next year, 13-14, Iowa makes it as, oh, a 8 or 9. Does not get into sweet sixteen, and I'm not even sure if they get to the 3rd round.
 
BasketballMan said:
Well it's certainly good to know an 18 yr old kid who has yet to even put on a practice jersey seems to think it's not much of a problem for us to improve yet another 7 games this year. Seriously? 25 wins is a BIG number. Let's not get crazy and set expectations in the stratosphere. We need to dominate in non-conference and then at least be 500 in conference, which we all know is not an easy thing to do. Losing Gatens is gonna be a tougher pill to swallow than I think alot of us want to admit due to many reasons, not the least of which was his leadership (on and off the court), scoring, and defense. I'm not convinced Ogelsby is ready to just step in (nor anybody else for that matter) and be his replacement from day one, meaning, non-conference games could be tougher than we might want them to be. We have a nice class (on paper) coming in, however, our core will be very young. I'm extremely excited and pumped for what's going on, BUT...25 wins at this point would seem insane. I'm thinking more in the 20-22 range for the regular season with a strong shot at a NCAA bid.
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Replacing one player in college should never be that big of an issue.

You don't have to recreate what that one player did to be successful you just have to have other players do what they do at a higher level.

Oglesby won't need to be anywhere near as a big of a part of the O as Gatens was.

Every position except for the SG will be better on both ends of the court and in some cases (pg/C) significantly better.

20 wins should be the goal IMO.
 
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