How High Can The Hawkeyes Go? (BCS)

bws258

bws258

Well-Known Member
Iowa is 15th in the first BCS standings. Is that good news or bad news? Both. The lowest a team that played for the title has been in the initial BCS standings was 12th (LSU). However, Iowa is only a few points out of 12th, so it's worth taking a look at least.

Note: everything below is predicated on Iowa winning-out, finishing 11-1 (8-0)

Who's ahead of us?
Big Ten: Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big XII: Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State
SEC: Auburn, Louisiana State, Alabama
Pac-10: Oregon, Stanford
MWC: Texas Christian, Utah
WAC: Boise State


  • We obviously play Wisc, MSU, & OSU. So, we will pass them if we beat them.
  • OU plays @Mizzou & @OkSU; Mizzou plays OU & @Neb; OkSU plays Neb, @Texas, OU. So, at most just one 12-0 team, and then they'd have to play in the Big XII title game.
  • Auburn plays LSU & @'Bama; LSU plays @Auburn, 'Bama, @Ark;'Bama plays @LSU & Auburn. Again, just one could win-out and stay in front of us, and then the SEC title game.
  • Oregon & Stanford have already played and could both theoretically win-out. Arizona is below us, but if they are 11-1, there will be strong sentiment for them to jump over us. Oregon plays @USC & Arizona; Stanford plays Arizona; Arizona plays @Stanford, USC, @Oregon. So, at most two teams stay in front of Iowa.
  • Utah hosts TCU on 11/6. The winner will likely go 12-0. Does that 12-0 team stay in front of an 11-1 Big Ten champion? Note: Utah also plays @ND on national TV on 11/13.
  • Boise State best chance to lose is @Nevada on 11/26. Regardless, can they hold off an 11-1 Big Ten Champion?
If we go 11-1, the worst case is that we are ranked 7th and we play in the Rose Bowl. My guess at our chances of the following BCS ranks at bowl-selection time:
1st ... 1% (Boise loses to Nevada; TCU loses to Utah, then Utah loses to ND; Aub loses to LSU & 'Bama, 'Bama loses to LSU, then LSU loses to Arkansas; Arizona beats Oregon & Stanford, but loses to USC)
2nd ... 9%
3rd ... 10%
4th ... 20%
5th ... 25%
6th ... 20%
7th ... 15%

RKTEAMAVGPVS RKPTS%RK PTS %AVG A&HRBCMKMJSPW %
1Oklahoma.9215NR42486.880031334.90441331111.980
2Oregon.8921NR12774.981911452.984489798211.710
3Boise State.8898NR22685.950421385.93907627767.780
4Auburn.8641NR52410.853151238.83933283542.900
5TCU.8573NR32516.890641300.88145756675.800
6LSU.8245NR62164.766061132.76752112483.940
7Michigan State.7628NR81964.695281037.703144124334.890
8Alabama.6654NR72092.740571085.73561210411162015.520
9Utah.6540NR91925.681491004.68071111612111210.600
10Ohio State.5726NR101761.623410936.634614161413211414.460
11Missouri.5491NR161196.423416640.43396505296.790
12Stanford.5374NR131455.515014689.4671101217101059.630
13Wisconsin.5335NR111646.582711867.587816181317191013.430
14Oklahoma State.5261NR151247.441415659.4468981089198.690
15Iowa.4824NR121511.534912785.53221719918171516.380
16Nebraska.4295NR141322.468013768.520720231623141619.300
17Florida State.4267NR171124.397917608.412213151515181112.470
18Arizona.3807NR181037.367118494.334915131816121318.440
19Texas.2214NR22397.140522256.173618171125151720.350
20West Virginia.1812NR19663.234719323.2190232522210022.090
21South Carolina.1555NR21576.203920284.1925242223024024.070
22Kansas State.1422NR25143.0506NR53.03591914014132121.340
23Arkansas.1302NR20579.205021274.1858280240000.000
24Mississippi State.1253NRNR129.045724133.090221201919222217.240
25Virginia Tech.0658NR23242.085723165.1119280250000.000
 
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BCS is designed to determine NC game between #1 and #2...Iowa will not climb that high, even if they win the rest of their games.
 
thank you for fixing and a pretty nice write up.

the key to all of this is iowa just keeps winning. we have a tough road ahead but all games are winnable. could get pretty exciting the next few weeks!
 
It would be unprecidented to jump from #15 into the top 2 and play for the National Championship Game. That doesn't mean it cannot happen, but the odds are much worse than 1 in 10. Iowa did get some love during the BCS show last night, and a good showing against Wisconsin could generate some movement. One week at a time though.

Go Hawks!
 
Big games by Iowa against our opponents, and big games by our non-con schedule could help, but I don't see us making it too far past the top 5-10.
 
edr247 said:
Big games by Iowa against our opponents, and big games by our non-con schedule could help, but I don't see us making it too far past the top 5-10.
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well, as I explained, the worst case, if we are 11-1, is a rank of 7th
 
I just don't see any way possible Iowa leapfrogs any 1 loss team from the SEC to play in the BCS title game. That doesn't even consider an undefeated BSU or TCU.
 
DuffMan said:
I just don't see any way possible Iowa leapfrogs any 1 loss team from the SEC to play in the BCS title game. That doesn't even consider an undefeated BSU or TCU.
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The only one loss SEC team ahead of us is Alabama and we probably won't leap frog them. But if Auburn or LSU lose, they will most likely drop behind us, and if we win out, I don't see either of them leap frogging us even if they go 12-1. A big thing to remember is the entire SEC East is not good this year, so whoever wins the SEC West won't get a huge boost from playing in and winning the SEC title game like they would have in years past.
 
The last team on sched that can help is Mich St. If Hawks are their only loss that helps Iowa. Will probably be Sparty's only loss as they do not play tOSU. but do not be surprised when EOS polls will have MSU ahead of Iowa, just my Iowa gets no love EOS polls victory over MINN will mean nothing!
 
Doesn't Northwestern only have 1 loss? I don't see how winning on the road against a 1or 2 loss team could hurt....
 
das89hawk said:
The last team on sched that can help is Mich St. If Hawks are their only loss that helps Iowa. Will probably be Sparty's only loss as they do not play tOSU. but do not be surprised when EOS polls will have MSU ahead of Iowa, just my Iowa gets no love EOS polls victory over MINN will mean nothing!
Click to expand...

Wait, so beating OSU wouldnt help????
 
Best case for Iowa; 6th.

There is almost no chance for Boise to lose in the regular season. Nevada got to 6-0 playing really bad teams so their 6-1 record is misleading. TCU/Utah meet so that eliminates one of them. And the winner of that game could still lose but its not likely.

Oklahoma will probably eliminate Ok State and Missouri. Auburn/LSU meet. That will drop one of them but then they both still have Alabama on their schedule. So if the winner of Auburn/LSU loses to Alabama that eliminates the SEC from the top five. If Auburn/Michigan State win out they will probably go into the top three because of strength of schedule. Oregon could lose a game, but probably won't.
1. Oregon
2. Oklahoma
3. Auburn, Michigan State
4.. Boise
5. TCU/Utah
6. 1 loss team....
 
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So you are assuming Auburn beats Bama? Not gonna happen. OU also has to play Okie St. and Utah has to go to Notre Dame.
 
Yes it will help but have to beat undefeated MSU first. that will give biggest win for poll sake. Polls determine all! A win over a 1 loss tOSU not as much!
 
If we continue to win we will rise in the computer polls. The Colley matrix website has a feature which lets you add games and recalculate the ratings. We are currently 18th. If you add our next five wins you get the following results. Granted this does not take into account what everyone else is doing, but it does show how we can improve.

Win over:
Wisconsin 11th
Michigan St 7th
Indiana 6th
Northwestern 5th
Ohio State 4th

Also wouldn't hurt if our prior opponents would start winning a game or two. We also need Purdue and Illinois to lose every week, their wins kill our SOS.
 
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