It is fun to speculate, as long as know your chances of all that happening you can put it in the, don't take it that seriously category. The first and foremost thing Iowa needs to do is win out. Without that none of the rest may happen. And, even if Iowa wins out and none of the other thing happen the worst we get is the Rose Bowl.
How High Can The Hawkeyes Go? (BCS)
- Thread starter bws258
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StatelineHawk
Well-Known Member
I had pretty much given up hope of Iowa playing NC game. With that said if Iowa goes 11-1, the worst they will be ranked is 4th. Iowa was one game over .500 the year I was born. Was not over .500 again till I was 20 years old. This is a treat worrying about what bowl game the Hawks will be in.
hawkeyescott
Well-Known Member
Exactly, I don't think Iowa can get to the NC, but it isn't every year Iowa is in this position either, so we might as well have fun with it while it last.
Winning out and going to the Rose Bowl at 11-1 isn't a bad consolation prize either.
BradBanks02
Well-Known Member
2002 Iowa started at 13 and made it up to 5. I believe the way it was set up back then had more weight with the computers which wasn't on our side. But in the human polls we made it to #3. My point is we still have 3 huge games to get us up in the human and computers polls. In 2002 Michigan was our only ranked opponent in the last 7 games and we still made it to 3 in the human polls, but the computers held us back a little. The key is just to keep on winning and hope Wisconsin, MSU, OSU win every game beside vs us. Then maybe get a little luck.
tm3308
Well-Known Member
Tell that to Boise, TCU/Utah if and when Auburn/LSU, OU, and Oregon all go 12/13-0.
tm3308
Well-Known Member
All 3 of those SEC teams need to lose another game. If any one of them wins out, they are in, IMO.
The Big 12 just needs to pick each other off. Okie State and Mizzou will both lose, preferrably to K-State. I don't think K-State is all that good, but neither is OSU or Mizzou, IMO. And if K-State loses to Baylor this week in Waco (with the way Robert Griffin is playing, I can definitely see that happening), that will hurt Nebraska's SOS (and I think Nebraska beats OU in the conference title game).
Boise has little to no shot. Their SOS is going to keep them out. It wasn't good enough to get into the top 2 this week, and it's only going to get worse from here on out.
TCU/Utah does have a chance. The MWC is stronger than the WAC, and they both had a decent OOC matchup (Pitt and Oregon State). They may not keep out a 1-loss 'Bama, but I think that an undefeated TCU/Utah might hold us off.
Oregon is going to have a hard time losing without an injury or two, but their schedule is still solid, with games @ USC, Cal, and Oregon State (It's the Civil War, anything can happen there, and OSU is a solid team), and play UCLA, Arizona, and Washington at home. Stanford has a relatively tough schedule, playing @ ASU, Cal, and Washington, and play Oregon State and Arizona at home. I don't think they get through that slate unscathed.
A little extra on OU: The Sooners are ranked #1 because of their rank in the computers. They are #3 and #4 in the human polls. The computers are not the component that you want carrying you, because the teams on your schedule greatly affect that ranking. So they could slide depending on how their opponents fare each week.
The Big 12 just needs to pick each other off. Okie State and Mizzou will both lose, preferrably to K-State. I don't think K-State is all that good, but neither is OSU or Mizzou, IMO. And if K-State loses to Baylor this week in Waco (with the way Robert Griffin is playing, I can definitely see that happening), that will hurt Nebraska's SOS (and I think Nebraska beats OU in the conference title game).
Boise has little to no shot. Their SOS is going to keep them out. It wasn't good enough to get into the top 2 this week, and it's only going to get worse from here on out.
TCU/Utah does have a chance. The MWC is stronger than the WAC, and they both had a decent OOC matchup (Pitt and Oregon State). They may not keep out a 1-loss 'Bama, but I think that an undefeated TCU/Utah might hold us off.
Oregon is going to have a hard time losing without an injury or two, but their schedule is still solid, with games @ USC, Cal, and Oregon State (It's the Civil War, anything can happen there, and OSU is a solid team), and play UCLA, Arizona, and Washington at home. Stanford has a relatively tough schedule, playing @ ASU, Cal, and Washington, and play Oregon State and Arizona at home. I don't think they get through that slate unscathed.
A little extra on OU: The Sooners are ranked #1 because of their rank in the computers. They are #3 and #4 in the human polls. The computers are not the component that you want carrying you, because the teams on your schedule greatly affect that ranking. So they could slide depending on how their opponents fare each week.
ColoradoHAWKEYE
Well-Known Member
I have played this out in my mind and I think IF (given we win out) we get through our upcoming gauntlet, some of that Herby/ Robert Smith love spreads to other voters who will hear of their nat'l comments. I think the fact that we have built our overall credibility will also wear on some of the other voters, thus vaulting us to top #5,6, or 7 come November and who knows, it is not so far fetched for any of those BCS schools ahead of us to lose (some may lose twice) and drop like flies.
I think our SOS will help hold us up in the computers and I think it's very likely that at least one 11-1 BCS school plays for the NC. It is possible, but definitely not a given, to see Boise St there at 12-0, so it would stand to reason, by November, if anyone takes a loss they will go to the back of the pack. The only real threat of a 1 loss team ahead of us right now is 'Bama, and they are as vulnerable as the others to lose again. It would be preferable for those top teams like OU or Oregon to get their loss after we've cracked the top 8 ourselves.
So, IF we win our games, I would think our chances of the other options playing out are in that 25-35% range, which is very plausible. Again, worst case, we are 11-1 and play in the Rose Bowl for a possible final ranking of #2 or #3. It could happen...so just need to play our schedule and win our games. See ya in Tempe!
I think our SOS will help hold us up in the computers and I think it's very likely that at least one 11-1 BCS school plays for the NC. It is possible, but definitely not a given, to see Boise St there at 12-0, so it would stand to reason, by November, if anyone takes a loss they will go to the back of the pack. The only real threat of a 1 loss team ahead of us right now is 'Bama, and they are as vulnerable as the others to lose again. It would be preferable for those top teams like OU or Oregon to get their loss after we've cracked the top 8 ourselves.
So, IF we win our games, I would think our chances of the other options playing out are in that 25-35% range, which is very plausible. Again, worst case, we are 11-1 and play in the Rose Bowl for a possible final ranking of #2 or #3. It could happen...so just need to play our schedule and win our games. See ya in Tempe!
