How Did Iowa Get Here?

[Travisam]

Great, then you know what I meant, so its a 'mute' point.

Sorry to bang away on ya here Jon but "moo point" JD. Not "Mute point".

It's like a cow's opinion, you know, it just doesn't matter. It's "moo".

 

[BILLBUCKNER]

It's true that we will never be Michigan and OSU..but we can surely compete consistenty for the 2nd tier and some years win as we have in the past the BIG. All the other team except PSU have the same obstacles that we do.

I have grown extremely tired of the excuses that Kirk uses to downgrade expectations. I want a coach like Fran for football(best thing Barta has done) The man has breathed fresh life into the corpse of the BB program. This is what the FB program needs. This is the BIG. And there are many players that want to play in it.

 

[CAARHawk]

Nobody picking up the lack of attention to JUCO and transfers? That is the problem. This staff just hasn't done anything to deal with weak recruiting classes or attrition after the fact. It was obvious this was coming even before the season started last year. Their recruiting should have included serious attention to the JUCO ranks and at transfers.

That would have given the strong classes over the last two years time to develop and help stave off the huge drop off. Now that Iowa is in another swoon, look for the same issues with the next two classes.

This is as much the reason for the 3 year cycles as the win loss record and the corresponding recruiting classes.

 

[NCHawker]

In statistical / financial anlaysis they use an expression called "reversion to the mean". Over the long term equity securities produce returns of X% and Fixed income securities generate something less than that. There are anomolies and people get swept away in the euphoria or the bottom. But returns will revert to the long term average

In Iowa's case, the mean is about 7 wins. I hate it because I got swept away in the euphoria of 8-10 wins with some big wins against good teams and Bowl Wins. So when we see 4 win season (-3), we'll get a 11 win season to offset it +3. In this case its more likely that 11 will come as a result of a bowl win.

 

[NCHawker]

Right.

Kirk comes out at the start of the season and says something like "Well, this senior class has been decimated and we're going to be too thin to really mount much of a challenge for this year. But we'll still go out and play the games, and thanks in advance for coming to Kinnick this fall.'

How is that gonna fly? Not far.

I disagree with your dismissive reply. It will fly better than what we see now. And it would not be delivered in the way that you describe. And other coaches deliver messages to temper expectations. Presidents do the same!

 

[JonDMiller]

Caar, they made a run at a couple Juco DLs and missed

 

[MJSCK]

Caar, they made a run at a couple Juco DLs and missed

Then swing harder and for more than two. They had open spots to start and be on national TV every weekend but couldn't land anyone?

I guess we're just little ol' Iowa.

 

[Travisam]

If I remember right they ended up not really going after one of the guys that wanted to go to Iowa and he may have ended up at Oregon? Then the other guy that they did really chase chose Arizona St. over Iowa.

 

[BILLBUCKNER]

Nobody picking up the lack of attention to JUCO and transfers? That is the problem. This staff just hasn't done anything to deal with weak recruiting classes or attrition after the fact. It was obvious this was coming even before the season started last year. Their recruiting should have included serious attention to the JUCO ranks and at transfers.

That would have given the strong classes over the last two years time to develop and help stave off the huge drop off. Now that Iowa is in another swoon, look for the same issues with the next two classes.

This is as much the reason for the 3 year cycles as the win loss record and the corresponding recruiting classes.

Totally agree with this and I don't not understand why we don't regularly go this route to address areas of need.
I never understood the stigma of Jucos. You get a kid that is more mature and has already had to deal with the homesickness and adjustments to college life. They are physically ready to play. We have had great success in the past with Jucos. They are hungry to continue their football life and potential to make the NFL. How often have we had freshman get into trouble or can't adjust to college life bomb out? Kansas State has made a living off of Jucos.

 

[urohawk]

EJ is the designated full time assistant coaching Tight Ends right now, with Raih working with him there but Raih cannot go on the road recruiting. He is a former backup QB.

David Raih maybe a great coach someday but inbreeding in the coaching world is in general very bad. See Kaz. Ferentz is too loyal to the people around him.

 

[urohawk]

Nobody picking up the lack of attention to JUCO and transfers? That is the problem. This staff just hasn't done anything to deal with weak recruiting classes or attrition after the fact. It was obvious this was coming even before the season started last year. Their recruiting should have included serious attention to the JUCO ranks and at transfers.

That would have given the strong classes over the last two years time to develop and help stave off the huge drop off. Now that Iowa is in another swoon, look for the same issues with the next two classes.

This is as much the reason for the 3 year cycles as the win loss record and the corresponding recruiting classes.

agree with this. It appeared very obvious that the lack of talent at def end and WR was going to surface this year and next year. However they haven't been able to find any transfers or JUCOS that can help bridge the gap until younger players are ready to contribute.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

I'm not so sold on this.

Im not either. I get the feel KF would rather lose his way than getting fresh ideas or listening to anyone else.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

Most of the top teams in the big ten have qb's that can run! Iowa seems to recruit guys with cement sneakers!

For as difficult a time Iowa has defending them, you would think they would recruit quarterbacks who werent total statues back there.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

There's no doubt...and to use the 'it's the talent' critique is also a critique of the people who bring the talent in.

As much as I hate the Ferentz salary stuff, it does come back around. I tend to think that the mean of what Kirk has done at Iowa is near the apex of what can be done here on a ten year look. I don't think you are going to see much more than that accomplished at Iowa. I just don't, and I know that ticks some people off.

The next question becomes do you have to pay someone 4mil per year to get those results, or could you get the same results by paying someone 50 to 75% less than that.

That's really where the debate is, IMO, for those who want to have it.

The debate goes further than just that. It also becomes, "At what salary level can you expect to retain a successful coach, instead of having him go elsehwere?"

Right now, $4 million seems to be in the ball park!

 

[DP5555]

Caar, they made a run at a couple Juco DLs and missed

What about Rodney Coe? Did they just decide the process was taking too long? Maybe something happened behind the scenes that we don't know about, but it's very strange to me why the staff would stop paying attention to one of the top recruits in his class. He's moved to the defensive line which is where Iowa wanted him in the first place. Why stop recruiting him?

Now it looks like ISU will steal him. Maybe it won't make Iowa look stupid in the long run, maybe it will. Either way I don't see why they'd bail on him. He's got the size and speed to be a damn good player. All it takes is a coach who can relate to the kid in order to get his attitude in the right place.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

I'm obviously way late to this party, but this quote really stood out to me:

"I have always used recruiting rankings more as entertainment, given how Iowa has done so well at developing players. But the 2008 class was ranked 7th of 11th in the Big Ten and the 2009 recruiting class, or those players who will be fifth year seniors next year, was ranked 11th out of 11th. That was an 18 man recruiting class and 10 of those 18 are either no longer with the program or their careers have been cut short due to injury. However, six of those players may be starters for Iowa next year."

That part in bold - a class rated dead last in the Big Ten, and we may have 6 starters from that class on the field for us next year? Tells me that we shouldn't expect the on-field talent to improvable too noticeably next year. If the 2010 & 11 classes are better, then maybe the future will bring better times, but it may be 2-3 years before we see the talent start to improve.

Problem is, the 2010-11 classes were better, presumable because of the on-field success in 2009. How will recruiting be going forward due to this year being bad, and maybe next year too?

 

[sdschroe]

Good article, long thread. A few points:

1) The 2006 and 2007 seasons stunk. That is a big reason why the 2008 and 2009 classes stunk. The unfortunate truth is that losing or winning at Iowa turns into either a negative or positive feedback loop for future success. It looks like the last 3 recruiting classes should reflect the success of 2008 and 2009. The concern is the 2013 and 2014 class will be impacted by this string crappy seasons we are having . Things like laying an egg (and the booing) vs. PSU won't help.

2) The point about KF not going out and getting transfers and jucos the last couple years is a good one. Hopefully Sokol can be a star. But getting juco playmakers and D-linemen should have been a high priority in the last couple recruiting classes. Was it?

3) Like everyone, I had high hopes for the 2010 team. The truth is, one of the biggest reasons that team underachieved compared to our expectations is that the 2009 recruiting class made minimal contributions to its success. That team was only a few RS freshman contributors away from being elite. But there was pretty much none. Wegher was gone, and Davis did little. All they had was Hyde. 2010 was the first sign that we would be in trouble for a few years.

4) That being said, the 2010 season was the first sign that the coaching staff was slipping. I lost faith in them after the Wisconsin game. Stanzie's failure to spike the ball after the 1st down sneak is incomprehensible to this day. I have yet to get that faith back. I really want to get it back! There haven't been many games where we've outcoached the other side and won a game we shouldn't have in the 2010-2012 seasons. There have been plenty where we've been outcoached.

So fan frustration is understandable.

 

[blubberhawk]

The Iowa football team is fighting just to be average right now and it's losing the battle. How did things get here? Will it get better?

More...

Lots of analysis there and some good info, but....

One need look no further for Iowa's problems than their lack of a "playmaker" and leader at the Quarterback position. Iowa has to improve their recruiting at the qb position.

IMO: If you take this very same Iowa team, and put any of these three at qb..
Drew Tate
Ricki Stanzi
Brad Banks

You would have a 7-1 team right now.

 

[NCHawker]

bottom line it:

Fry was 143-89-6 that's 7.1 wins per season

Ferents 96-6 7.4 wins per season.

Year	wins	losses	Record	Conf	Place	Result/Bowl
1979	5	6	5–6	4–4	5th	none
1980	4	7	4–7	4–4	4th	none
1981	8	4	8–4	6–2	T–1st	L Rose
1982	8	4	8–4	6–2	3rd	W Peach
1983	9	3	9–3	7–2	3rd	L Gator
1984	8	4	8–4–1	5–3–1	T–4th	W Freedom
1985	10	2	10–2	7–1	1st	L Rose
1986	9	3	9–3	5–3	T–3rd	W Holiday
1987	10	3	10–3	6–2	T–2nd	W Holiday
1988	6	4	6–4–3	4–1–3	T–3rd	L Peach
1989	5	6	5–6	3–5	T–6th	none
1990	8	4	8–4	6–2	T–1st	L Rose
1991	10	1	10–1–1	7–1	2nd	T Holiday
1992	5	7	5–7	4–4	5th	none
1993	6	6	6–6	3–5	8th	L Alamo
1994	5	5	5–5–1	3–4–1	7th	none
1995	8	4	8–4	4–4	6th	W Sun
1996	9	3	9–3	6–2	T–3rd	W Alamo
1997	7	5	7–5	4–4	T–6th	L Sun
1998	3	8	3–8	2–6	T–7th	none
1999	1	10	1–10	0–8	11th	none
2000	3	9	3–9	3–5	8th	none
2001	7	5	7–5	4–4	T–4th	W Alamo
2002	11	2	11–2	8–0	T–1st	L Orange†
2003	10	3	10–3	5–3	T–4th	W Outback
2004	10	2	10–2	7–1	T–1st	W Capital One
2005	7	6	7–6	5–3	T–3rd	L Outback
2006	6	7	6–7	2–6	T–8th	L Alamo
2007	6	6	6–6	4–4	T–5th	none
2008	9	4	9–4	5–3	T–4th	W Outback
2009	11	2	11–2	6–2	T–2nd	W Orange†
2010	8	5	8–5	4–4	T–4th	W Insight
2011	7	6	7–6	4–4	4th (Legends)	L Insight
Avg	7.2	4.7
Median	8.0	4.0
# 5 wins or less	8
# 6 wins	4
# 7 wins	4
# 8 wins	6
# 9 wins	4
# 10 wins	5
# 11 wins	2
# 12 wins	0
# Under 7 wins	16
# over 7 wins	17

 

[sdschroe]

Lots of analysis there and some good info, but....

One need look no further for Iowa's problems than their lack of a "playmaker" and leader at the Quarterback position. Iowa has to improve their recruiting at the qb position.

IMO: If you take this very same Iowa team, and put any of these three at qb..
Drew Tate
Ricki Stanzi
Brad Banks

You would have a 7-1 team right now.

I would say that is only assured with 2005's version of Drew Tate.

This team is 2 plays away from being 6-2 and 2 plays away from being 2-6. We are what our record says we are.