Cover3
Well-Known Member
My conclusion from the epic novel below is to predict an 8-4 record for the 2012 Hawks, contrary to the 6-6 and 5-7 that some of our resident pessimists have proffered. I put this up front because I know very well the tendency to not read long posts in full.
Last night, I watched HawkeyeHistorian's YouTube video of the 2000 Iowa-Northwestern game. Given all of the talk about how weak the Hawks' 2012 schedule is, and also how the 2012 Iowa defense could be the worst since 2000, I wondered during the video how much worse the 2000 team really was than some of Iowa's recent mediocre editions. For those that don't remember, Iowa played the nation's toughest schedule in 2000, certainly in the non-conference. So, here's a little comparison:
2000: 3-5 in Big Ten, 0-4 non-con with 'worst' opponent being 9-3 W. Mich.
2006: 2-6 in Big Ten, 4-0 non-con with slate of Montana, ISU, 'Cuse, NIU
2007: 4-4 in Big Ten, 2-2 non-con with wins over 'Cuse and NIU
2011: 4-4 in Big Ten, 3-1 non-con with wins over TTU, ULM, and Pitt
I think that with a schedule reminiscent of the last several years (ISU, one FCS team, one non-BCS FBS team, and a typically middling BCS-level team), that the 2000 team may possibly have been 5-7 or 6-6. They weren't at their best during non-con season, but given that ISU's best squad ever at 9-3 and the aforementioned 9-3 MAC champion Broncos didn't necessarily blow them away (24-14 and 27-21, respectively), I think they could have notched Ws over an FCS team and a squad like ULM or a more typical MAC team. Assuming the same conference record, I think the 2000 team would have had a good shot at 6-6 with a schedule like 2012 (wins over NIU, UNI, and CMU; loss to ISU).
It would then take a 2006-like meltdown in conference for the 2012 Hawks to finish 6-6. I'm not saying the Hawks will be great, but we've got Minnesota, Penn State and Purdue at home, and Indiana still on the schedule. It seems like some are bracing for a 5-7 season, but I just don't see it. Maybe if we lose to ISU and have some key injuries, then things could fall apart, but I think there is still far more talent in the program (even accounting for differences in era) than there was in 2000. Maybe if the 2012 Hawks played a 2000-esque non-con schedule, then they might be looking at 4-8 or 5-7. As it stands, though, I would hope that 6-6 is the floor, and think that 8-4 is the likeliest outcome given the schedule.
Last night, I watched HawkeyeHistorian's YouTube video of the 2000 Iowa-Northwestern game. Given all of the talk about how weak the Hawks' 2012 schedule is, and also how the 2012 Iowa defense could be the worst since 2000, I wondered during the video how much worse the 2000 team really was than some of Iowa's recent mediocre editions. For those that don't remember, Iowa played the nation's toughest schedule in 2000, certainly in the non-conference. So, here's a little comparison:
2000: 3-5 in Big Ten, 0-4 non-con with 'worst' opponent being 9-3 W. Mich.
2006: 2-6 in Big Ten, 4-0 non-con with slate of Montana, ISU, 'Cuse, NIU
2007: 4-4 in Big Ten, 2-2 non-con with wins over 'Cuse and NIU
2011: 4-4 in Big Ten, 3-1 non-con with wins over TTU, ULM, and Pitt
I think that with a schedule reminiscent of the last several years (ISU, one FCS team, one non-BCS FBS team, and a typically middling BCS-level team), that the 2000 team may possibly have been 5-7 or 6-6. They weren't at their best during non-con season, but given that ISU's best squad ever at 9-3 and the aforementioned 9-3 MAC champion Broncos didn't necessarily blow them away (24-14 and 27-21, respectively), I think they could have notched Ws over an FCS team and a squad like ULM or a more typical MAC team. Assuming the same conference record, I think the 2000 team would have had a good shot at 6-6 with a schedule like 2012 (wins over NIU, UNI, and CMU; loss to ISU).
It would then take a 2006-like meltdown in conference for the 2012 Hawks to finish 6-6. I'm not saying the Hawks will be great, but we've got Minnesota, Penn State and Purdue at home, and Indiana still on the schedule. It seems like some are bracing for a 5-7 season, but I just don't see it. Maybe if we lose to ISU and have some key injuries, then things could fall apart, but I think there is still far more talent in the program (even accounting for differences in era) than there was in 2000. Maybe if the 2012 Hawks played a 2000-esque non-con schedule, then they might be looking at 4-8 or 5-7. As it stands, though, I would hope that 6-6 is the floor, and think that 8-4 is the likeliest outcome given the schedule.
